As the United States pushes further and further into debt, the country is financing its budget with infusions of a billion dollars a day from Asia. But if China and Japan started trading in euros instead, the dollar could collapse. That would be bad for the US and Germany, where economic recovery is dependent on exports.
The logo on one of the classic T-shirts on display in the souvenir shop at the Chicago Futures Exchange reads: "Pigs are trendier than you thought." For generations, the Exchange's building on Wacker Drive has been famous for trading in pork bellies.
These days, of course, a different commodity has become the focus of speculation: On the floor of the exchange, currency traders, in their brightly colored jackets, are betting billions on the future of the US dollar. And if the traders' predictions hold true, it's not exactly rosy.
...
The economists are outdoing each other with bleak forecasts. Thomas Mayer, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank, believes $1.40 is realistic, while his counterpart at investment bank Goldman Sachs, Jim O'Neill, expects an exchange rate of $1.50. Finally, US economist Fred Bergsten is boldly talking about rates of $1.80 and $2.20. Everything seems possible.
...
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,328487,00.html