(PINR)22 November 2004 Rice Nomination/Washington Isolation

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
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22 November 2004

Rice Nomination Reinforces Washington's Drift Toward Isolation
Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com

The nomination of current National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice to be secretary of state in the second Bush administration leaves the shape of U.S. foreign policy as uncertain as it has been since the problems encountered by the occupation of Iraq revealed the limits of Washington's military and diplomatic power. Of all the major players on the Bush security team, Rice has been the one with the least defined and consistent geostrategic approach. Although she is expected to be one of the President's most trusted and loyal advisers -- indeed, a confidante -- she was not the main policy shaper in the first administration, playing, for the most part, a supporting role for the neo-conservative protagonists. It is not clear that she has a vision of her own, nor should one conclude that she will fall easily into the neo-conservative camp.
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Conflicting Policy Tendencies

During the first Bush administration, neo-conservative, internationalist and realist tendencies of foreign and security policy contended for supremacy.
Represented by Vice President Dick Cheney and endorsed in practice by Defense Se! cretary Donald Rumsfeld, the neo-conservatives proceeded on the premise that Washington was capable through its own military power and support from "coalitions of the willing" to remake the world into a system of market democracies in which the U.S. would function as protector and be the prime beneficiary. The neo-conservatives gained ascendancy after the September 11 attacks when they were able to meld their vision to the "war on terror." The resistance that Washington has faced in its efforts to make Iraq a demonstration project of Middle Eastern democracy has cast doubts on the viability of the neo-conservative position, but its advocates remain in place in the Defense Department and the Vice President's office.
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A Policy Void

The nomination of Rice to the office of secretary of state appears to plant the second Bush administration in the position of trying to pursue foreign and security policy through the inoperative neo- conservative paradigm. The President, who self-avowedly concentrates on the overall vision and not on its implementation, continues to accept the neo-conservative big picture, and there is nothing to indicate that Rice is willing or motivated to try to persuade him otherwise. Yet in the aftermath of the Iraq intervention, that vision is no longer credible, at least in its original optimistic form. It is not possible to implement a design that has turned out to be utopian, which means that Washington faces a policy void.
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Conclusion

The possibility that Washington will act to resist the drift toward multipolarity in world politics and toward its own isolation has grown dim with the Rice nomination and the appointment of her deputy, Stephen Hadley, to the post of national security adviser. Those who believe that neo-conservative triumphalism will genera! te new interventions probably have misplaced fears. It is far more likely that -- stripped of the viability of its vision -- the dominant neo-conservative tendency will be paralyzed, hastening the erosion of U.S. power worldwide and providing many opportunities for rising powers to test their mettle .

Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
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complete report at http://www.pinr.com
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