"Pessimists peddle myths of poverty"

[TexasBushwhacker]

That's right. We're just pessimists. That's the problem. I love how he cites research from 13 years ago and relevant to our problems today.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/news/opinion/10462895.htm?1c

"The most authoritative study on upward mobility was done at the University of Michigan, where researchers followed the fortunes of 17,000 people from 1975 to 1991. At the end of the study, only about 5 percent of those who began at the lowest income level were still in the lowest fifth. Nearly 30 percent had climbed to the top fifth.

None of this to assert that low-income workers don't face hardships, or that the loss of a job isn't a catastrophic event for a family. But American economic life is not a Hobbesian struggle between “the people versus the powerful,” as Al Gore once put it.

The U.S. economy is a darn-sight better off than, say, Europe's. Search Google for “Europe and unemployment” and you get thousands of responses on Europe's chronic joblessness and its welfare-state economy. One academic paper asks, “Is Europe Doomed to Stagnation?”

The current U.S. jobless rate is 5.4 percent, well below the 50-year average of around 6 percent. In fact, during the 2001 recession, the jobless rate peaked at 6.3 percent, only slightly above the 50-year average. Even so, it was portrayed in the media in the worst light."

[cornermouse]

1. Changes to the methods and people counted in

the jobless rate make reference to the "50-year average" irrelevant.

[Cobalt Violet]

2. 13 yrs. ago is pre-NAFTA.

NAFTA was passed in 1994.

[lcordero]

3. that article is inaccurate and biased

The true unemployment rate is far above the 5.4% since most of the people that fell off of the rolls did so because their benefits expired.
Also, I truly doubt that the 17,000 people were a truly random sampling.

[Ken Burch]

13. Of course

(BTW, I hope your "Feingold 2004" sticker is replaced in about three years by a "Feingold 2008" sticker. We need somebody like him to take a shot at the White House. If he even ended up as Edwards' running mate, that would be a great combo.

[punpirate]

4. A more recent study...

... looking at data over a longer period of time dispels the notion of upward mobility, especially when using more traditional measurements of income, education and accumulation of wealth after accounting for inflation. This article outlines the fallacy in the study cited in the above opinion piece:

http://www.commondreams.org/views/021800-101.htm

Moreover, as others have mentioned, the unemployment and jobs figures have been fiddled with over time, so there's some error introduced by comparing apples and oranges. The simplest way to determine actual employment, underemployment and unemployment is to review weekly FICA data, which the government simply will not do, regardless of administration. If Americans knew the actual extent of short-term, long-term and chronic unemployment, they would be horrified.

There's a reason why consumer debt has been rising as quickly as it has. It's no accident that changes in banking laws have allowed credit cards to be used for life essentials--food, utilities, taxes, even bail--credit is making up for shortages in earning power, and for lack of upward mobility.

[TexasBushwhacker]

5. Excellent point, re: FICA data

"The simplest way to determine actual employment, underemployment and unemployment is to review weekly FICA data, which the government simply will not do, regardless of administration. If Americans knew the actual extent of short-term, long-term and chronic unemployment, they would be horrified."

Shouldn't this kind of info be available via FOIA?

[punpirate]

6. Actually not...

... the data is collected by the IRS, and privacy laws prevent it, and the IRS is too underfunded to work that data for release. Changes in the laws would permit anonymity of individual tax information and still enable collection of the raw data. It hasn't been done simply because it's likely highly embarrassing.

[Blower]

12. The US inflation figures have been fiddled with since early 1980s...

According to several prominent studies, the US government has been slowly adjusting the inflation calculations downward, using various schemes.

Dan S.

www.libertywhistle.us

[newyawker99]

16. Hi Blower!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Newsjock]

7. Lie with statistics

At the end of the study, only about 5 percent of those who began at the lowest income level were still in the lowest fifth. Nearly 30 percent had climbed to the top fifth.

OK, think back to the job you had 16 years ago: grocery store, McDonald's, whatever. Chances are indeed good that you've advanced at least somewhat since then. It's entirely logical to expect that about 5% of those people would still be in the same minimum-wage jobs, and that some percentage of people have advanced in careers.

Does this mean our great economy is all wonderful? Hardly. It's comparing inexperienced, beginning workers to mature professionals. And even with that, it's still saying that only 30% of us seem to have any hope of economic security.

[atommom]

8. All he's doing here is giving ammunition to conservatives

(who might otherwise start to feel pangs of conscience about American poverty). Sadly, most won't know or care whether his information is outdated or not... :shrug:

[oscar111]

9. True stats on poverty:REAGANOMICS shredded:Truman tax rate, more

for how poverty kills 1OO,OOO/yr and how to end it with trillions to spare {Truman tax rate}, see my first reply in this thread below.

Democratic Underground Forums - Merry Christmas to Homeless Veterans in DC ! (PHOTOS)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2867938

[oscar111]

10. Sweden:Under 1% Jobless for decades

so his standard for acceptable, a fifty yr average US rate, is foolish.

Zero joblessness is more like it.

http://www.njfac.org

is advised by Clinton sec Labor, r reich and jk galbraith of harvard.

ZERO by share the work, WPA, new co ops. For the crippled, sheltered workshops .

Sweden kept joblessness below one percent for decades til the RW lied its way to power.

We can copy Sweden's jobless rate..if we wish to. WPA does not cost a penny.. it harnesses the output of those now idle.

The economy has no need of joblessness. Contrary to RW myth.
Joblessness cripples the economy.

[stevebreeze]

14. The economic elite who run the GOP LIKE a certain level of joblessness

As an example to the rest of us as to how our lives can be if we don't tow the line. If we could be even worse off we will be more likely to accept what we have.

A more realistic unemployment number IS published currently that number is 9.4%
Here is the link to Bureau of labor statistics page it is kept. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

[hatrack]

11. McClanhan's been a joke for years

He lacks the comic zest of Business Page hack Jerry Heaster, but his elevator goes nearly as high in the Great Tower of Irrelevance.

Heaster takes the prize, though - about every third column is all about the joys of 401K plans. Any guesses about the nature of Heaster & McClanahan's pensions? Hint: they're not 401K plans!

[proudbluestater]

15. I have yet to read an article about the economy which

addresses the huge and constantly growing gap between the rich and the poor and the shrinking middle class. Funny nobody wants to talk about that, huh?

[Hello_Kitty]

17. Jobless rate figures are cooked to look better than they are

People who have simply stopped looking for work, or those who are laid off who choose to become stay-at-home parents rather than continue seeking work are not counted among the unemployed. Remember in "Fahrenheit 9-11" how the Flint, MI unemployment rate was officially estimated at 17% but community activists said it was really more like 50%? Trust me, in many areas the unemployment rate is WAY higher than they say.