[PINR] 10 January 2005: Sudan's Changing Map

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
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10 January 2005
For a recent analysis on East Africa, please visit the following article:

"Do Al-Qaeda's East Africa Operations Pose a Threat to U.S. Interests?"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=240

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Sudan's Changing Map

Drafted By: Adam Wolfe
http://www.pinr.com

On December 31, 2004, Sudan's central government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/ Army (S.P.L.M./A.) signed a permanent cease-fire agreement to end the country's 21 year civil war, clearing the way for a comprehensive peace deal signed January 9 in Kenya. While the United Nations and Western governments are hoping thatthe north/south agreement will be used as a blueprint to end the conflict in Sudan's western Darfur region, it is unlikely that the successful negotiations will spread to the west -- or, for that matter, to a growing problem in Sudan's northeastern region. Khartoum has seen the north/south civil war spread into a center/periphery conflict that shows little sign of abating even after the initial catalyst for the fighting has been subdued.

Ending Africa's Longest Running Civil War

In 1953, the United Kingdom and Egypt concluded an agreement providing for Sudanese self-government and self-determination. Shortly thereafter, in 1955, the Arab government in Khartoum reneged on promises to create a federal system, which led to a mutiny by southern army officers and sparked a 17 year civil war. The Addis Ababa agreement of 1972 was the foundation for a ten-year cease-fire between the northern and southern forces, but in 1983 President Gaafer Muhammad Nimeiri began a process of incorporating Islamic law into the penal code. Emergency courts were created in the north to enforce the new laws and in the south it led to the resumption of the civil war that the December 31, 2004 agreements officially end.
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Darfur Equals Genocide, But Not Intervention

The conflict in the western region of Sudan, which began after black, Muslim rebel groups attacked a military airfield in April 2003, meets the legal definition of genocide under the U.N. Genocide Convention. Khartoum responded to the rebel attacks by mobilizing and arming irregular militias of Arab Muslims called Janjaweed, roughly translated as "armed men on horseback." The Janjaweed, with air support from Khartoum's military, have directly attacked and displaced the largely black population of sedentary farmers. While years of intermarriage have eliminated the clear racial differences between the two populations, recent conflicts over diminishing resources in the wake of an extended drought have caused both populations to label themselves as increasingly separate from the other. The Janjaweed attacks, which have been encouraged by the tactics of western rebels but not committed by them, have killed an estimated 70,000 people (this number does not include those killed in direct conflict, only "civilians") and displaced 1.6 million.
Article two of the Genocide Convention states, "genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethical, racial or religious group as such: (a) Killing members of the group… (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part." The actions of the Janjaweed militias, with support from Khartoum, clearly fall within these parameters. However, there has been some legal wrangling over what amounts to "intent to destroy, in whole or in part" an ethnic group.
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Sudan Moves Toward Collapse

The current strategy of the Western powers, and one likely to be pursued by the U.N., relies on using the north/south peace agreements as a template to resolve the conflicts in Darfur and the northeastern Sudanese region. The current strategy of Khartoum is to use the concessions made in the north/south peace agreements to block any calls for compromises in the Darfur and northeastern peace negotiations. The Darfur and northeastern rebels groups will attempt to hold out as long as possible in the negotiating sessions, hoping that Western pressure will deal them a better hand. John Garang, as Sudan's top vice president, is likely to move away from his tacit support of the regional rebel groups in order to preserve the S.P.L.M./A. agreement with Khartoum -- at least as long as it appears al-Bashir's government is able to hold on to power in the capital. It is increasingly likely that these competing interests will lead to the collapse of al-Bashir's government and the geographical integrity of Sudan.
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Conclusion

While the December 31, 2004 permanent cease-fire agreement between the S.P.L.M./A. and Khartoum will bring stability to southern Sudan, the rest of the country is likely to descend into fractional collapse as Darfur's genocide continues and the northeast violently dislodges from Khartoum's influence. If the Darfur and N.D.A. negotiations are not quickly brought to a resolution, Khartoum will likely lose control of Sudan's geographical peripheries. The Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.) in Darfur and the Beja Congress and the Free Lions in the northeast are attempting to force this conclusion by stalling the negotiations and escalating the violence in their respective territories (there is some evidence that the J.E.M. is coordinating its actions with the northeastern rebels to this end).
John Garang will be in a unique position as the top vice president in Khartoum to help force the regional peace negotiations to a resolution. While he will pursue a strategy of protecting al-Bashir's government, in order to secure the terms of the north/south peace deal, this will likely take the form of leaning on the regional rebel groups to accept the terms on the table. The West and the U.N. will help give his lobbying weight, but that does not mean the rebels will cave. Sudan's territorial integrity may soon collapse as the regional rebels see their best opportunities in the fractional chaos that will follow.
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complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

Report Drafted By:
Adam Wolfe
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