(PINR)Charting a New Geopolitical Reality: Ukraine in 2005

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
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12 January 2005
For past analyses on the Former Soviet Union, please see:

"Democracy in the Former Soviet Union: 1991-2004"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=249

"Russia's Slippery Foothold in Abkhazia Becomes a Slide"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=239

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Charting a New Geopolitical Reality: Ukraine in 2005

Drafted By: Yevgeny Bendersky
http://www.pinr.com

Following a tumultuous and passionate election, Viktor Yushchenko became president of Ukraine to the jubilation of hundreds of thousands of his supporters, who braved cold temperatures and massive political storms in the second popular revolution in two years to sweep the Former Soviet Union (F.S.U.). While Yushchenko's victory is considered an enormous boost to the democratic movement across former Soviet states, the political, economic and social realities in Ukraine present formidable challenges to the new leadership.

A Divided Country

No other former Soviet country before has been so divided across ethnic, religious and political lines. While millions of ethnic Russians living in the eastern regions of the country overwhelmingly supported Viktor Yanukovych -- Yushchenko's rival presidentialcandidate -- millions of Ukrainians throughout the country supported the pro-Russia platform of Yanukovych for a variety of reasons. The often-discussed split between Ukrainian "pro-Western" and "pro-Russian" camps does not run along Russian and Ukrainian lines. Voters put their hopes in the hands of not just two men, but the larger forces behind them. While Yanukovych's prior criminal record was widely known in the country, that fact alone did not stop millions of people to cast their vote for him three times in a row.
Those voting against Yushchenko voted for better economic and political relations with the Russian Federation, and for the larger role of Russian culture in Ukraine. The issue of the Russian language -- the former lingua franca and the unofficial main language of Ukraine -- was one of the hottest-debated topics in this election. Those backing the pro-Russian stand voted for the continuation of the Kremlin's endorsements and the strengthening of the Moscow-Kiev alliance as the driving force in the F.S.U.
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Yushchenko's Geopolitical Maneuverings

While Yushchenko will have to face a divided country, his greatest challenge will come from patching up the relations with Russia. Moscow considers itself a loser in the Ukrainian elections, and President Vladimir Putin's continuous and public backing of the losing side was an enormous embarrassment to Moscow. Since Georgia sought to escape Russian influence with its own popular revolution in the fall of 2003, the "loss" of a country that Russia has long considered to be inside its primary sphere of influence is a tremendous blow to its interests. While the Russian political establishment is trying to figure out what went "wrong," Yushchenko will have to convince the Kremlin that while his country now attempts to chart a new direction, Russia will continue to be one of its main geopolitical partners. While the new government can publicly state that it will be closer to the West, walking away from its eastern-oriented commitments is not possible.
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Conclusion

Yushchenko assumes the Ukrainian presidency in a largely-polarized country with deep political, social and economic divisions. He faces an intransigent Russia that feels it has lost a major public relations battle; a number of former Soviet states that see Ukraine as a threat to their regimes; and a largely supportive West. Having emerged as a winner in the new, fast "Great Game" that just unfolded in Eastern Europe, Ukraine has to chart a careful course between its prior economic and political commitments and a new, democratic future. As one of the key states that separates the new West from the former Soviet space, Ukraine stands to benefit greatly if Yushchenko can capitalize on his democratic victory and avoid further dissent to the new government.
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complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

Report Drafted By:
Yevgeny Bendersky
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The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

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