Another dead chemist working in microbiology

[seemslikeadream]

January 9, 2004

A reward of up to $20,000 was announced Thursday for tips leading to the arrest and charges of a hit-and-run motorist who killed a chemist walking in the Texas Medical Center.

Robert Leslie Burghoff, 45, a postdoctoral fellow at Bayor College of Medicine's molecular virology and microbiology department, was walking to his car Nov. 20 when he was hit from behind be a white or light colored cargo van that jumped the sidewalk in the 1600 block of South Braeswood.

Burghoff, a father of three who lived in The Woodlands, had been studying the Norwalk virus plaguing cruise ships.

www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2343667

[dawgman]

1. Why is that significant? I seem to remember hearing something on

a radio show about it once a year to a year and a half ago (art bell maybe)

[sventvkg]

3. It's freakish!

They all keep getting "hit" or dying in bizzare ways...

[TruthIsAll]

16. Coincidence? 16 dead in 4 months? I will calc the odds.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=594709

I will calculate the odds shortly.

[TruthIsAll]

17. The odds of 15 or more strange microbiologist deaths in 4 months...

This analysis uses the same mathematics we used to compute the probability of 15 or more JFK witnesses turning up dead within a one year period. It's the SAME problem, but in this case the time interval is even shorter - 4 months, making it even more improbable.

We seek to calculate the probability of at least 15 microbiologists dying UNNATURAL deaths within a 4 month period. The deaths were a combination of homicides, suicides, accidents and undetermined origin.

The key VARIABLE is: How many world-class microbiologists are there? Not knowing this number, I have calculated the probabilties for the three assumptions: 1000, 2000, 5000 biologists.

For a 4 month period the probability is 1/3 the full one year probabilty, which is what I initially used for the computations since one year mortality data is availiable. To obtain the odds of unnatural deaths, I used 1999 mortality data:
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm


IMPORTANT NOTE: THE PROBABILITY OF 16 OR MORE STRANGE DEATHS OCCURING IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT IS FOR 15 OR MORE DEATHS. I USE 15 DEATHS AND 5000 WORLD-CLASS BIOLOGISTS AS ASSUMPTIONS BECAUSE I USED THEM IN THE PRIOR JFK ANALYSIS AND I AM TOO LAZY TO DO ANY MORE WORK ON THIS TONIGHT.

FOR 16 STRANGE DEATHS, OUT OF 5000, TO OCCUR IN A 4 MONTH PERIOD, THE ODDS ARE ABOUT 1 IN 100 MILLION.

FOR 15 DEATHS, the probability is approximately 1 in 15 million.
Assuming there are 5000 world-class microbiologists in the world, the probability is 1/3 * 1/5,239,858 or 1 in 15.7 million.

Assuming there are only 1000 world-class microbiologists, the probability that at least 15 would die UNNATURAL deaths in a FULL calendar year is:
1 out of 21,230,606,601,227,800 or
1 in 21,230 trillion, 606 billion, 601 million, 227 thousand, 800).

For 1000 deaths to occur in a 4 MONTH period, the odds are 1/3 of this, or: 1 out of 63,690 trillion....


These are the mortality rates:
........................1 year...Lifetime
Probability of:
suicide.................0.000107 0.008197
homicide................0.000062 0.004739
accidental death........0.000359 0.027778
undetermined death......0.000014 0.001101

The probability of an unnatural death FOR ANY AVERAGE PERSON in A GIVEN YEAR is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories = 0.000542, or approximately 1 in 2000.

The probability of an unnatural death in a LIFETIME is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories = 0.041815, about 1 in 25.

The Poisson Distribution
Although the Normal (Gaussian) probability distribution is by far the most important, there is another which has proven to be particularly useful - the Poisson Distribution, which is derived from, and is a special case of the Normal Distribution.

The Poisson Distribution applies when the probability "P" for success in any one trial is very small, but the number of trials N is so large that the expected number of successes, pN, is a moderate sized quantity. The formula is: P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m!

In words, the Probability of EXACTLY m successes = a to the m'th power times the exponential function of (-a), all divided by m factorial.

If m= 15, m factorial = m! = 15*14*13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1

Now lets use Poisson to determine the probability of a given number of individuals from ANY predefined group meeting unnatural deaths within a one-year period.

The only assumption we are making here is the number of biologists.
Assume for the sake of argument, there are N= 1000

Let p= Probability of any individual dying from UNNATURAL causes within a given year = 0.000542
Let a= Expected Number of deaths = pN= 0.542
Let m= Actual Number of UNNATURAL deaths = 15

The probability of exactly m=15 UNNATURAL deaths within a given year out of a predefined group of N = 1000 is:

P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m! or p(15)= 0.542**15*exp(-.542)/15!

Here are the probabilities for m=1 through m=15 deaths occuring within ONE year:

Prob(X=m) = probability of EXACTLY m DEATHS
Prob(X>=m) = probability of at AT LEAST m DEATHS (the one we want)

column 1 is n, the number of deaths,
column 2 is the probability of at least n deaths,
columm 3 is the actual odds (for example, 1 out of 5,239,859)

m.......Prob(X=m)........Prob(X>=m)

Assuming 5000 biologists:
n deaths..prob...1 out of..
1 0.933
2 .753 1.33
3 .508 1.97
4 0.288 3.47
5 0.138 7
6 .057 17
7 0.020 47
8 .00670 148
9 .00196 510
10 .00051 1,939
11 0.00012 8,070
12 0.000027 36,485
13 0.0000056 178,135
14 0.0000010 934,300

15 0.000000190 5,239,859
For a 4 month period (1/3 of a year), the probability is is 1/3 times 1/5,239,858 or approximately 1 out of 15 million.
FOR 16 DEATHS, IT IS ABOUT 1 OUT OF 100 MILLION.

Here are the probabilties for other cases (remember, the probabilities are actually 1/3 of those given, since the time interval is 4 months or 1/3 of a year):
-----------------
1000 biologists
n....prob..1 out of
1 0.418 2.39
2 0.103 9.69
3 0.0177 56.26
4 0.0023 427
5 0.0002 484,018
6 0.000022 45,091
7 0.00000169 588,306
8 0.000000114 8,752,118
9 0.00000000683 146,245,847
10 0.000000000368 2,712,122,977
11 0.0000000000180 55,278,020,364
12 0.000000000000814 1,228,276,488,499
13 0.0000000000000338 29,551,271,527,958
14 0.00000000000000130 765,351,111,903,523
15 0.00000000000000004710 21,230,606,601,227,800


-----------------------------
2000 biologists:
n.......prob....1 out of

1 .661 1.51
2 0.295 3.39
3 0.096 10.38
4 0.024 41
5 0.005 195
6 0.00089 1,113
7 0.000136 7,343
8 0.0000181 55,093
9 0.00000215 463,452
10 0.000000231 4,321,227
11 0.0000000226 44,239,588
12 0.00000000202 493,399,077
13 0.000000000167 5,954,899,756
14 0.0000000000129 77,331,852,139

15 0.00000000000093 1,075,228,365,705

[Buzz Clik]

2. "Another dead microbiologist" ... errrr... chemist. n/t

[seemslikeadream]

4. Sorry

fixed the misleading headline

[DuctapeFatwa]

5. How many does that make since 9-11?

All tragic coincidences, of course.

...And advanced forms of biological warfare
that can "target" specific genotypes may
transform biological warfare from the realm
of terror to a politically useful tool....


http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf

[seemslikeadream]

6. I think this is number 12

:shrug:

Here's a list

1. Nov. 12, 2001 Benito Que was said to have been beaten in a Miami parking lot and died later.

2. Nov. 16, 2001 Don C. Wiley went missing, Was found Dec. 20, Invesigators said he got dizzy on a Memphis bridge and fell to his death.

3. Nov. 21 2001 Vladimir Pasechnik, former high-level Russian microbologist who defected in 1989 to the U.K. apparently died from a stroke.

4. Dec. 10, 2001 Robert M. Schwartz was stabbed to death in Leesberg, Va. Three Satanist have been arrested.

5. Dec. 14, 2001 Nguyen Van Set died in an airlock filled with nitrogen in his lab in Geelong, Australia.

6. Feg 9. 2002 Victor Korshunov had his head bashed in near his home in Moscow.

7. Feb. 14, 2002 Ian Langford was found partially naked and wedged under a chair in Norwich, England.

8,9, Feb. 28, 2002 San Francisco resident Tanya Holzmayer was killed by a mircobiologist colleague, Giyang Huang, who shot her as she took delivery of a pizza and then apparently shot himself.

10. March 24, 2002 David Wynn Williams died in a road accident near his home in Cambridge, England.

11. March 25, 2002 Steven Mostow of the Colorado Health Sciences Centre, killed in a plane he was flying near Denver.

Here's a few more

12. Leland Rickman of Univerity of California

13. SAIC analyst Christopher Legallo

14. potentially MD/microbiologist/lawyer Jeffrey Paris Wall

15.FBI analyst Linda Franklin

16. David Kelly

17,18,19. Nov. 24, 2001 A Swissair flight from Berlin to Zurrich crashes during its landing approach; 22 are killed and nine survive. Among those killed are Dr. Yaakov Matzner 54, dean of the Hebrew University school of medicine. Amiramp Eldor, 59, head of the haematology department at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv Avishai Berkman, 50 dircetor of the Tel Aviv public health department and businessman.

[DuctapeFatwa]

9. I guessOlson was the original one

An exposé of the CIA's secret experiments on humans in the 1950s. Through the use of drugs, hypnosis and torture, suspected Soviet agents were subjected to a rigorous brainwashing to induce their confessions. The issue is explored through the story of U.S. scientist Dr. Frank Olson, who was involved in these experiments. Tormented by his conscience, Olson wanted to quit the program – and died shortly thereafter under mysterious circumstances.

Forty years later, Eric Olson had his father's body exhumed to prove that he had been murdered, most likely to prevent Dr. Olson – one of the most important bearers of secrets in the U.S. – from revealing the truth.

http://www.worldlinktv.org/programming/programDescription.php4?tz=0&code=code

[Lars39]

12. I think this one makes 17.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=62368

[seemslikeadream]

13. just can't keep up with them all

here's some details
www.whatreallyhappened.com/deadbiologists.html

[carrowsboy]

14. scary

but would they use it on us?

[goforit]

7. Hmmmm.........This is out and out murder.

Yet even Dr. Wiley, microbiologist researching ebola
out of the blue committed suicide jumping into the Mississippi
(Jan-2002).
(this was no suicide - Some one attempted to bomb the funeral home
shortly thereafter where his body was embalmed)

I wonder if it is the same white van they found outside the
Twin Towers on 911?

[SheilaT]

8. This needs to be put into some kind of appropriate context.

How many people are killed by hit and run accidents every year in Texas? A brief google search reveals that California has about 300 hit and run fatalities every year. California has 35 million or so people, Texas about 21 million -- I've gotten those numbers from a 2004 Rand McNally road atlas.

So it's fair to think that 150-200 people are killed by hit and run drivers every year in Texas, so maybe this incident is just a random hit and run, and not anything sinister.

[lostnfound]

10. Maybe. But hit & runs up onto a sidewalk at 1:30 on a weekday afternoon

is a little bit weird.

[DuctapeFatwa]

15. Appropriate context link inside

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=302738

[lostnfound]

11. Here's the police report -- filed 3 weeks later.

http://www.ci.houston.tx.us/departme/police/nr121203-1.htm

And the Chronicle doesn't even write about it for another 3 weeks. (That's a commentary on utter disregard for life here, as in, ho-hum, just another hit and run...)