OK folks, the BC Liberal drugs scandal. How will it play out?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

Here's today's update from the Globe and Mail

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040112/RAIDS12/TPNational/Canada

"It's obviously a money trail," the man with a rich Indo-Canadian accent said, talking on his cellphone as he weaved through heavy traffic. There are a few individuals involved . . . these guys all came from the Island. They worked actively on Paul Martin's campaign and probably brought in a whole lot of money. . . . That's the real nitty-gritty of the story."

"If it is, as police suspect, a key link appears to be David Basi, a powerful ministerial aide who was fired after his legislative offices were searched two weeks ago. Mr. Basi had access to confidential government files -- including multimillion-dollar plans to privatize the Coquihalla Highway and to sell parts of B.C. Rail. Unverified reports in the B.C. media allege the legislative end of the investigation involves his handling of the BC Rail file."

"It broke my heart," a former Liberal scrutineer said of watching how Mr. Basi and his colleagues took over one Vancouver Island riding in 1997.Allan Warnke, a former Liberal MLA, said typically they would sweep in with an overwhelming number of new members. He said the party turned a blind eye to this kind of political swarming, but he thought it was wrong.He said Basi's Boys mostly worked in ridings around Victoria, but they were active provincially and helped the party's soaring membership numbers at the federal level during the drive to build support for Mr. Martin's leadership bid. The size of the federal party in B.C. grew from 4,000 members in February, 2002, to more than 37,000 last fall. About 40 per cent are Indo-Canadian.

"Concentrate on the memberships," Mr. Warnke said, sounding like the unnamed Liberal organizer who felt the key to the case was the money trail.

"There is cash around that had to cover those memberships. In the old days the purpose of memberships was to raise funds, but in this case you had a lot of loose cash kicking around. You create a membership and then you have the money covering the membership. Now, where did the money come from? "Where did all this spare change come from?" he asked.

[Minstrel Boy]

1. I don't think it will have a national impact, apart from

putting Martin on the defensive and off balance, but I believe it will contribute to a general souring on the Liberals in BC, which is already well under way.

Gordon Campbell's provincial government is increasingly unpopular, and Campbell is viewed as a "Martin Liberal," on the right of the party. The provincial NDP is resurgent, now within four points of the Libs, after having been written off as dead just a year ago.

I have the impression that the electorate in BC is in greater flux than anywhere else in the country. Just about anything could happen there. But a BC drug scandal implicating Martin's office and a faltering provincial government put the Liberals at a disadvantage to capitalize on the volatility. The federal NDP currently hold just two of 36 BC seats. In 1988 we won 19. This year, I could see us approaching that number, depending on the breaks, and how this story plays out.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. I think it increases the chance of Campbell's party losing at the next

provincial election. It may swing a couple of lower mainland seats to the NDP that would otherwise go Liberal. Other than that, it remains too early to tell. Of course, we don't yet know where the corruption stops, and that may only come out after the Federal election.

[Flightful]

3. Scandals never hurt Canadian pols outside BC

BC premiers of all political stripes have been taken out by scandals but in the rest of Canada nobody seems to care. Chrétien funnelled millions in government cash to his pals back in Shawinigan but the story got very little play, NDP leader Jack Layton lived in a government-subsidized apartment while he and his wife had an income of $120,000 a year, back in the 1970s Labour minister John Munro was on the payroll of the mob in Hamilton. The worst that ever happens to anyone is they resign, usually to come back in the next election.