Sheila Copps may run as independent (Canada)

[Minstrel Boy]

Now this is interesting.

It's been known for a while that Copps, standard bearer of the "left" wing of the Liberal Party, is facing a stiff nomination challenge in her riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Martin's choice is Tony Valeri. Kicking her out of cabinet wasn't enough. He wants her out of parliament.

Yesterday's Toronto Star reported that "stories that MP Copps intends to run as an independent if she fails to win the Liberal nomination battle with Transport Minister Valeri are gathering steam":

http://tinyurl.com/2phq2

If Copps runs as an independent, and splits the Liberal vote, the NDP's chances in the riding should soar. (This is partly thanks to redistribution. The boundaries have changed, and only half is accounted for by Copps's old riding. So voter loyalty to long-time MP Sheila should be less of a factor.)

"And when talk turns to an NDP candidate, it invariably centres around former mayoral contender and New Democrat MPP David Christopherson. The popular Christopherson has already signaled he's considering entering federal politics. Most observers figure he's looking at challenging Liberal MPP and cabinet minister Stan Keyes in the new riding of Hamilton Centre.

"But Christopherson could wait to see if the scenario that envisions Copps and Valeri splitting the vote comes to pass. If so, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek might be his best ticket for a trip to Ottawa."

Conservative MPs are joining the Liberals, and the most liberal Liberals are finding themselves unwelcome in the party. Where does that leave the centre-left vote?

Oh, yeah. :)

[Screaming Lord Byron]

1. It really looks like we're headed for a major restructuring of the

Canadian Political Landscape. Very interesting. Copps garnered 52.85% of the vote in 2000, 49.48% in 1997. NDP figures were 13.21% and 20.01% respectively, so there is a base for the party to build on in the riding. A Copps independent campaign would likely result in this seat becoming a three-way marginal. We live in interesting times.

[Minstrel Boy]

2. And look at this: "NDP courting Sheila Copps"

Toronto Star, Jan 14:

'I wouldn't rule anything out in politics,' says former cabinet minister

OTTAWA (CP) — Sheila Copps is being wooed to run for the New Democrats in the next federal election if Paul Martin's Liberals dispense with her services in the Hamilton riding she's represented for 20 years.

The former cabinet minister and two-time leadership contender spoke today with NDP Leader Jack Layton and later refused to rule out the possibility of switching to the New Democrats.

"I've always figured when a door closes another door opens, and I wouldn't rule anything out in politics," Copps said in an interview.

...

Should Copps defect to the NDP, she could play havoc with Liberal hopes in the riding. A legend in Hamilton, she could conceivably win for the NDP, which has run a distant second to her in the past. Or she could split the traditional Liberal vote with Valeri to allow a Conservative win.


http://tinyurl.com/ytz4k

[iverglas]

3. I suspect

Sheila will wait to see how the nomination race plays out. But there are already reports of a Herb Dhaliwal-style takeover of her riding by Martinites.

(Dhaliwal, a Chrétien loyalist and cabinet minister, saw his British Columbia riding association taken over as a result of the efforts of Martin's operatives there ... including some who are currently the subject of that RCMP organized-crime investigation ... .)

The co-vivant heard the story this a.m. on CBC radio, but I was watching Newsworld and saw nary a thing.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/01/15/copps040115

Former heritage minister and deputy prime minister Sheila Copps says she will not rule out leaving the Liberal party to join the NDP.

... Layton said he and Copps spoke about how she other Liberals were being treated by their party.

"The way they're being pushed out of their ridings is quite incredible. We don't do that in our party, I'll tell you that," said Layton.

CBC's "indepth" on Copps: http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/liberals/timeline_copps.html


The Liberal Party's long-time strategy is to absorb and co-opt left-wing opposition by being "socially liberal" and including its prominent left-ish members at the table and in positions of ostensible power in areas of little concern to its right-wingers. People like Warren Allmand (a former Liberal minister from Quebec, who was periodically courted by the NDP) could (a) probably not have won as an NDP candidate, and (b) not have had what influence he did have on government if he had not been Liberal, so it was reasonable for people like him to be Liberal for a long time.

The Martinites seem to have decided that they can now afford to alienate those on the left of their party for whom principle still matters. Obviously, they expect to gain more by attracting the PC/Alliance voters who feel homeless as a result of the merger of those parties (and pick up the dying BQ vote in Quebec without having to work for it at all), and simply have very little need for the "liberal" standard-bearers in the party.

.

[Iverson]

4. heard that on CBC too

If she's getting reasonable, considerate treatment from Jack Layton and the NDP and short shrift from the Paul Martin Liberals, it's inevitable that she should at least think about going where she's welcome.

What a shame whenever Canada mimics the stupider aspects of the US. Canada has seen what good it's done the US to have a conservative liberal party.