bush approval numbers...not good news for us

[bearfartinthewoods]

it's a pretty broadly worded poll question. i'm not sure how that affects the results. but it's a big bump, and only 1% 'no opinion'

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 9-11, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with George W. Bush on the issues that matter most to you."

..........Agree..... Disagree...... No Opinion

1/04.......... 55.......... 44.......... 1
9/03.......... 46.......... 51 ..........3


http://www.pollingreport.com/bush.htm#Bush

[LTR]

1. Wasn't he at 60% not too long ago?

Or was that a different poll?

I'm not as concerned. I assuem most people polled are indifferent, and can easily be swayed.

[bearfartinthewoods]

4. different poll. different question

this particular question "most important to you" is worrisome to me.

his straight approve/disapprove ratings are 65/35 by cnn/gallup. and lower in others.

[59millionmorons]

2. Not concerned at all

One it's a Gallup poll. And as we have seen in the past year, his popularity is 2 miles widw and a cm thick.

[PATRICK]

3. Considering

That it has been a long time since we got "good news" from those poll sources, no it's not bad. The way I read the vagueness is that almost half have a firm idea that they don't agree with Bush. The approval might be slaphappy confdience and ignorance of the moment for many, kneejerk loyalty to the office for others. The approval numbers could be quite soft and limited, the disapproval more decisive.

And if they are polling from the poor fools who use those news venues as primary sources I am surprised it is that bad for Bush. The only value these have is in very careful comparison with past Presidents ratings.

This isn't rocket science, but voodoo soociopsychology that aims to please.

[bearfartinthewoods]

8. i'd be curious as to the results if they switched from

'you agree with bush' to 'bush agrees with you' because he has routinely polled under 50% in polls about 'does he understand/appreciate your concerns' type questions.

[zanana]

5. This reminds me of 2000 campaign.

For months before the general election, every poll had Bush at least 4 points higher in popularity than Gore. But we all know who got the most votes, don't we?

[DoYouEverWonder]

6. Another meaningless poll

That has nothing to do with whether or not you will vote for Bu$hler again.

I don't understand why some of us around here like to help them spread their disinformation?

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. some of us understand the value of tracking trends

and how that should influence strategy. for instance, if you see the people constantly polling that the country is headed in the wrong direction, the smart thing to say is we want to change the direction of the country. if the people are polling that the country is headed in the right direction, we emphasize the ways which we can better get there.

in a 50-50 split country, we have enough trouble convincing people that bush is wrong. we need every advantage we can get and often these poll trends are essential to gaining that advantage

what i don't understand is why people who aren't interested in or don't believe in polling, click on and comment on poll threads.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. We don't believe in polling

because some of us understand how they do their research and how easy it is to get the results that you want to prove, just by how a question is worded or how you select your subjects.

I used to work in pediatric research. I saw plenty of well respected professionals manipulate data and results to get to a desired outcome.


Besides MSNBC has a poll out today that shows that barely half of Americans say President Bush deserves to be re-elected. This one seems a lot more relevant to the point you are trying to prove?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3960306/

[bearfartinthewoods]

17. who is "we"?

the campaigns sure as hell do or they wouldn't spend so much money on them.

i'm not trying to prove any point. i'm a poll junkie and the odd wording of this one has me curious. i know there are other poll junkies here and i'd hoped for intelligent input.

the poll you cited, btw, thanks for the new poll, is less interesting because it's a standard up or down re-elect question which,imho, is leass revealing than more subtle wording.

[DoYouEverWonder]

24. We are the ones who aren't 'us'

Whoever you are defining has 'us' at the moment.

Of course, the new poll I sighted is not has interesting to you because it ask the question more directly and disproved your point.

[bearfartinthewoods]

28. hmmm, if i had a point, other than the oddity of the phrasing

of the question, i don't see it. the poll you quote is routine. the same results have been polled so often it's hardly worth posting unless you are trying to make a point about a couple of the candidates and this is not the forum for that.

[BurtWorm]

22. People need to have it hammered into their heads: Bush is a Disaster!

The main points to keep hammering away at:

* Soldiers are dying and killing themselves in Iraq because Bush lied to get us into an unnecessary war. This needs to change.

* Bush lied about who benefited from his tax cuts, and now the government will be running record deficits that our children will have to pay for. That has to change.

* Bush asked his political team "Haven't we given enough to the wealthy? Shouldn't we give some to the middle?" Rove said "Stick to principle," and Bush obeyed. His political guy decided that the rich would get a second tax cut. Bush is a puppet. We need a president. We need a change.

I don't need to go on here, or I'll be preaching to the converted. But when the country gets complacent about where we are, that's not only not good for Democrats, it's not good for the country.

[lovedems]

7. Alot can happen this year.

I am hoping that there will be at least 2 or 3 investigations (pre-war Iraq, 9/11, and Plame) and that some damaging information will come to surface that ACTUALLY makes the news. That would hurt him a great deal (I think).

The dem leaders, with the exception of Kennedy, are losing an opportunity to show the american people what this (p)Resident is all about. I am growing more dissapointed.

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. Timing is everything right now

And I do believe that in the next 9 months, a lot more people from will come out and start telling the truth.

Just today Joe Biden told Imas, that Karl Rove, in "real life," isn't "as smart as he's given credit for."

Yesterday Ted Kennedy side that if the American people knew the truth, they would have never supported this war.

Ron Suskin has said he is going to start posting on the Internet most of the documents that he used to write his new book.

And there are even more signs. I really do think that the dam is about to burst.

[lovedems]

14. Of course there is Richard Clarke's book due out too. That will be

more damage than O'Neill/Suskind's. Franken touched in his book how he was desperate to get the administration to pay attention to Al Queda and they kept putting him off. They weren't interested. THAT is going to piss a hellava lot of people off.

[lewiston]

9. Nov is a long way off.. Polls change...

ask Dr. Dean.

[alcuno]

12. Wrong

Wait for the internals

[BJ]

15. Yeah, what "issues"?

That poll is stupid in the extreme.

The war in Iraq? Gratuitious tax cuts for the nation's upper 1%? The heart break of psoriasis?

[bearfartinthewoods]

16. that's what is interesting to me

it's not a generally used wording and it makes me curious.

[DiverDave]

18. Locations?

Polls can be skewed any way you wish.

In Orange County, I guess * would get good numbers.

In my neck 'o the woods, he would be down...alot...

[bearfartinthewoods]

21. the polls cites "nationwide"

[rustydog]

19. The issue that matters the most to me is: should Bush* be impeached

Then, the poll numbers seem to be correct!

Let's try another poll question: Do you think Bush spanks the monkey rather than have sex with Laura?
The poll numbers tend to support that position!

How about another?:
Some people believe that a man with a tiny penis tends to become a bully and assign nicknames as a means of controlling people to compensate for an insignificant "manhood" do you think this is Bush*s problem?:
WELL!, once again, the poll numbers seem to agree with this position!

So, Polls indicate that Bush is a monkey-spanking man with an insignificantly-sized penis and is having problems compensating for it.

[Sparkle]

20. The only poll I pay attention to is on election day.

It's too early for polls.

[Skittles]

23. I don't believe the polls

they lie to us about everything every g.d. day. Why would the polls be different?

[Oilwellian]

25. About Gallup polls...

A fellow DU'er recently reported she was called by Gallup and asked to participate in their poll. At the end of the questioning, they asked her if her name could be added to a list so she could be called again for future polls. I thought Gallup's claim to fame was their "random polling." If they're creating lists of who's liberal and who's conservative, they can skew the polls any way they wish. So much for being "random" eh?

Secondly, I've been keeping an eye on Bush's re-elect numbers in the polls. They've been consistently 39-41% for the past year. THAT number sounds very close to the reality of Bush's failed popularity. I don't know too many conservatives who plan to vote for him again.

[Sparkle]

30. I find that hard to believe about Gallup asking her name.

I used to work at the Gallup organization and it wasn't in the script to ask that whenever we did political polls. Maybe it was for some consumer panel question or something.

I worked there for over a year and it was never in the script to ask for someone's name to be called back on political polls. And they do call everyone at random. The machine dials numbers out of the blue. So if you're number is private you still get called. One person nearly cursed me out asking me how did I get this number. I had to explain to him that the numbers dialed are at random. He couldn't understand that.

[Monte Carlo]

26. As they say around here, 'who cay-yres?'

With a more united opposition Democratic party - which it will be after the convention - Bush's numbers are going down. Not even the boldest Republican will defend the Overtime Pay cut in public. The Democrats have a number of trump issues this time around, and they can thank Bush for them.

[Cat Atomic]

27. This president is like nothing I've ever seen.

I've never seen a president with such low support from Republicans. Not even Bush Sr.

I talk to alot of people- just chatting. I'm in Southern California, but it's not like I'm hanging out in a coffee house or an art class. I chat with a regular cross section of the population, I'd say. Plenty are Republicans.

If the subject of Bush comes up, 85% of the time the range of opinion goes from exasperation to flat out rage. It's been especially harsh since his amnesty plan announcement.

This is obviously not a scientific poll, it's just one person's experience. But I can tell you honestly that the majority of people I talk to not only don't support Bush, they actually despise him. I've never seen a president as widely disliked as this one.

Personally, I think Bush has zero chance of winning in November, unless he steals it.

[candy331]

29. I would say that polls do serve a purpose as

many other things but it is now I think subject to too much manipulation just as the cooked books of companies. There is Manipulation by the pollsters and manipulation by the media. I say again no polls will show Bush true numbers shrinking and if so no media outlet would air them. We are living in different times where honor and integrity has hit the road, long gone.

[Deege]

31. A new problem with polls

This was pointed out in a report I heard on NPR earlier in the week. Polls via the telephone are not reaching people with cell phones (because cell phone numbers are unlisted). Those who tend to be younger and, in the case of candidate Dean, his support base does seem to skew younger. At any rate, they are, at least, missing a large segment of the population.

Of course, there are also numerous polls that claim the percentage of people under the age of 25 that vote is very low.

Deege