Interesting take on predicting the president

[Sliverofhope]

I'm currently taking a course on presidential electoral politics, and I'm looking through my books on how to predict the president.

With the democratic nominee undecided and the economy and Iraq in kind of a flux state, as well as the Plame affair and such in limbo, it's hard to tell.

As I calculate things currently, Bush has a slight edge on any democrat, but there several volatile factors that could undermine his re-election.

The three essential points that could undermine Bush are:
1. the economy
2. Iraq
3. scandals; either Plame or Iraqgate

This is all very vague, I realize, and mostly conventional wisdom, but using methods outlined in several books, it looks like who the democrat is is less important that general trends that have not yet come to a head yet.

[BigDaddyLove]

1. Not to mention that the text books you are reading through....

probably don't take into account of what it's really like on the streets these days with repect to partisan politics; that is, things that may have applied in the past (like common sense), don't seem to matter anymore....everything is viewed in terms of 'Us vs. Them', there really is no national discussion about issues anymore.

The political climate here in America is so (intentionally) volatile that anything could happen.

[NoMoreRedInk]

2. Here's my favorite predictor....

It's all about personal income, and I have no doubt that the critical mass of voters (the amount it takes to win) vote their own pocket books.

Since the Great Depression, if personal income growth in the 3rd Quarter (directly preceding the election) is over 3.2% the incumbent, or his party, always wins.

If its under 2.8% the incumbent, or his party, always loses.

In the middle, it's a tossup.

So my question to you is, what will income growth be in 3Q2004?