Your State: Democratic Chances

[GiovanniC]

Basically, I'm just curious to see where everyone feels their own state will fall in the 2004 presidential election (and how many electoral votes your state has, and whether it went to Gore in 2000). You can list your reasoning, too, if you'd like.

For example, I live in Michigan. Although I live in a predominantly freeper area, I am fairly optimistic that a run by Clark, Dean, Kerry, or Edwards (in that order) could pick up Michigan, unless the nominee self-destructs. Bush's fiscal priorities don't set well with a lot of people, even in this Republican hotbed where I live. There's a lot of unemployment, and we don't have TONS of rich people here. Ann Arbor is fairly liberal, as is Detroit. Those are the two big cities here. Grand Rapids, like much of the west side of Michigan, is pretty conservative. The very sparsely populated Upper Penninsula is pretty liberal, also.

We have 17 electoral votes. We went to Gore in 2000.

[Hoosier Democrat]

1. Indiana: Solid for Bush

Ever the optimist, I have to tell you that the odds of ANY Democrat carrying Indiana are ZERO. Much to my chagrin, we usually are the first or second state called Red by the networks.


Last week, I saw a statewide Indiana poll that showed Dumbya's approval rating here at 67%.

[HFishbine]

2. NC

Hasn't gone for a dem president since Jimmy Carter. However this time I think things could be different. An uphill battle for sure, but not hopeless.

[citizen snips]

15. NC has elected a lot of governors that are Democrats.

I think eventually North Carolina will turn more liberal.

[YNGW]

16. Another NC

I'm not sure Edwards would win again if he were to run for Senate. That seat has changed hands for the last dozen elections it seems and many consider him to be AWOL in the Senate as far as representing the state. Let's put it this way, if he were to run for Senate in the primaries against Harvey Gantt, I'd vote Gantt in the blink of an eye before I'd vote for Edwards.

But, I think Bush is solid here, especially with Dole & Jim Martin promoting him.

[patricia92243]

28. NC - Hope your right. It alway irks me that my vote doesn't count because

of the stupid electorial college. I of course vote streight Democrat, so maybe it will at least do some good locally.

[HFishbine]

55. Straight Dem doing good locally? Maybe not.

Hi,

Not sure where you live in NC, but I'd encourage you to reconsider voting straight dem with the notion that it does some good at the local level. In my area, there are frequently independents, libertarians, and even on rare occassions, republicans who are better than the dem nominees for certain local offices. There are some dems in the piedmont who are not concerned about the environment or corporate shinnanigans and who won't think twice about voting for laws and ordinances that harm the little guy.

If you aren't familiar with the candidate, don't vote for him or her. Better to leave a vote uncast than to cast one in ignorance. The best thing, of course, is to learn about each candidate and vote on his or her merits rather than party affiliation.

[GOPisEvil]

3. Hahahahahaha!!! I live in Texas.

Jesus could return to earth and run as a Democrat, and * would still win.

[elfwitch]

5. I have to agree with you there...

Everybody in the state besides me and you could magically disappear and the GOP would still win Texas.

[KCDem]

7. you know, in my newbie naivitee,

(sp6) I think that the Democratic challenger will do better in this election than in the last one. I doubt there's anyone in TX who is more enamored with Bush this time than the last time around, and everyone who likes him DID vote for him last time, so he has no "new" votes to get. If we can just convince all those former Nader supporters that a vote for the Dem would be a small slap in the face, I think it'd be a strong statement.

[GOPisEvil]

11. You mean we might can break 40%?

2000 General Election
11/7/00
RACE NAME PARTY CANVASS VOTES PERCENT
President/Vice-President
George W. Bush /Dick Cheney REP 3,799,639 59.29%
Al Gore /Joe Lieberman DEM 2,433,746 37.98%
Harry Browne /Art Olivier LIB 23,160 0.36%
Ralph Nader /Winona LaDuke GRN 137,994 2.15%
Pat Buchanan /Ezola Foster IND 12,394 0.19%
Howard Phillips /J. Curtis Frazier W-I 567 0.00%
James "Jim" Wright /Leonard L. Foster W-I 74 0.00%
David McReynolds /Mary Cal Hollis W-I 63 0.00%
-----------
Race Total 6,407,637

[KCDem]

19. I think we'll improve

I don't think we'll win TX; I'm not that naive. But I do think we'll do better.

I'm going to call around later and volunteer to drive voters to the polls.

[GOPisEvil]

21. Yeah, I think we can get 45%.

:-(

[elfwitch]

24. I'm with GOPisEvil

There is really almost no damn point. Time, money, and energy would be better spent somewhee where there is a chance of pushing it the other way.

[lagniappe]

49. Texas is home to the PestMaster himself.

I live in Delay's district. Texas is a lost cause for Democrats. I was driving home from work one day and surfing stations on the radio when I came across our local version of Rush Limbaugh.

Some 'America hating communist liberal' had the audacity to suggest that maybe the numerous billboards that lined our highways were ugly and should be replaced with trees. I thought this guy was going to explode. It's amazing because the first billboards you see when you come to Houston are for topless bars.

[jenk]

4. NJ, solid Dem

[NewJerseyDem]

48. yeah

This state has become very democratic recently. I highly doubt that Bush will even compete here especially since it is so expensive. But, South Jerseyans will get some ads because they are in the Philly market and that will be competitive. There was a weird Gallup (i think) poll that said that New Jersey was one of 4 tossup states and that the rest either leaned or were solidly toward one party. I was really surprised because there were about as many democratic electoral votes as republican yet NJ was considered basically right in the center of the country. I guess that the poll was just really bad.

[sybylla]

6. Wisconsin will go dem, depending

on the candidate. They will have to at least appear to have a spine. I leave it up to you to decide who that leaves out.

[bobthedrummer]

27. Senator Russ Feingold will be re-elected

the sole vote against PATRIOT Act-now that IS Wisconsin.
Dean will do well here so will Clark.
I'm voting for Dennis Kucinich February 17th.

[acmavm]

8. Nebraska: Dems can just forget it. Our democratic senator, Nelson,

goes with anything the Bushistas come up with. He's a former republican, so there's no surprises there. And Hagel is the other one (can we all say Black Box Voting boys and girls?) Nebraska has some kind of crazy mentality that just defies intelligent thought. The main worry in this state is why the Cornhuskers aren't Numero Uno. To hell with ethics in politics, so what if the Commander in Thief is a liar, so what we have a shadow government of warmongering, greedy thugs who are padding lining their pockets by virtue of killing American armed service members and Iraqi civilians. And there doesn't seem to be much outrage about tax cuts for the rich. This is some kind of bizarro world caught in a time warp.

[Pegleg Thd]

17. The state of Oklahoma is powered

by football and psychopathic religionists, ie, robertson like. However with all of the military bases here any ticket with a former general on it should take it away from bushit.

[KCDem]

23. I grew up in Omaha and am currently visiting.

I went out with my best childhood friend Tuesday night. The SOTU was on the tv in the bar, and we caught a few glimpses. She said, among other things, how she thought Bush was more attractive than any of the Dems (first of all--EWWW!! and secondly--who cares?) and then she said that she saw Bush on TV, claiming that he had nothing to do with Saddam's capture. What a good man he was for not taking credit where credit is due. :puke: Man, how can she be so damned naive? It seems many people up here are. Your characterization of it as a "bizarro world caught in a time warp" is right on.

[qb]

9. There once was a time when you could count on Minnesota

Now I'm not so sure. We've had a surge in clueless white suburban voters. We have a Repbulican governor, and Norm Coleman in the Senate. What a disgrace.

[KCDem]

25. I used to have a lot of respect for MN

I loved that state as a kid; my Dad's family hails from Duluth, and we've spent many summers up in Ely. But ever since Wellstone's death, I think they're just as bad as the rest of the country. :(

[MariaS]

10. Wisconsin

Democrat all the way. I think it may come down to Clark & Dean in the primary but we do have our Lt. Gov Barbara Lawton backing Clark so that may help.

[Woodstock]

12. Maryland: Democratic but a growing population of Ditto Heads

The perception among the white working class is that Democrats are giving lazy people a free ride with welfare and handouts, and taxing the workers to death to pay for it all. Much of this is racial (prejudice is alive and well) but some is among whites ("hard working white working class" vs. "white trash.") They are completely blinded by Rush Limbaugh and 24/7 conservative talk shows that are on every channel, up and down the AM dial. Even the rock stations have conservative idiots spouting nonsense to appeal to the working class. They haven't the slightest clue that Bush is giving the country - and their hopes of a future - away to the corporations. Americans dying/gravely wounded in Iraq, jobs going overseas despite all the giveaways to the corporations, none of it matters. And if any of this beats them over the head and says, notice me!, they just blame it on Clinton. They are woefully uninformed about current events, just blindly trust Bush and keep waving those flags. It's like some strange Emperor has no clothes universe where you keep thinking, can't they see?

A Republican was elected governor the first time in decades because of the above white working class dynamic. It was largely the urban areas (Baltimore & DC suburbs) that went Democratic, Baltimore suburbs were less Democratic, and many outlying areas went Republican by 2 to 1 or greater. It really goes along with the theory in "The Emerging Democratic Majority" about the "ideopolis" population centers going Democratic. I think a big reason was that there were a significant number of Democratic voters who just crossed lines or stayed home because the Democratic candidate was not appealing. I worked for her, but wasn't enthusiastic myself. She was the lieutenant governor for a particularly uncharismatic governor (and she was low on the charisma factor herself.) That she was a Kennedy didn't help among the working class who have been brainwashed by Rush. Also there was the financial crisis hitting all states that affected the race - again, Rush said blame the Democrats, so they did. The mayor of Baltimore should have run instead, I believe he would have won.

But I think we are still safe for the Democratic nominee in a presidential race. Maryland went for Clinton and Gore and has been considered a safe state. Democratic registered voters well outnumber Republican. There was a poll a couple of weeks ago where Dean beat Bush by 5 points in the state. Even if Dean has lost popularity, I think {insert Dem candidate here} would do as well. I'd say when name recognition kicks in, Maryland will go 60% for the Democrat.

[Robb]

13. In Colorado, Democrats have a saying

...that if we ever elect a Democrat, that's the sign that the party has moved too far to the center. ;)

[Kathy in Cambridge]

14. Mass: 12 Electoral Votes

Democrat

[Kathy in Cambridge]

18. Here's an electoral vote map

http://www.thenorthstarnetwork.com/news/othernews/182491-1.html

[RebelOne]

34. Georgia - Zell Miller country.

But actually, it seems to be evenly divided between pro-Bush and anti-Bush.

[lovedems]

20. Illinois, so blue we are almost purple.

The republicans running for Senate to replace Fitgerald are on a "we need to rebuild the republican party in Illinois" because of our now indicted former Gov. Ryan.

[GOPisEvil]

30. Don't get lazy.

Every time a new Republican sprouts, cut him or her down like a weed. Don't let the R's get a foothold, or they'll take over soon enough.

Er, figuratively speaking of course. ;-)

[Rich Hunt]

53. millionaires

Aren't they a bunch of millionaires this time around?

I don't think that sort of thing plays well.

And a long time ago, the Trib had an interview with Ryan where he said Reagan was too liberal for him. I don't think he was joking.

I think we'll do okay, but let's all keep fighting!

[GinaMaria]

36. I've caught those ads

Really lame and unbelievable. Bunch of crooks.

I've heard that we have some chance in Alaska. Anyone know anything about this?

[hatrack]

41. Lisa Murkowski is weak

Many Rs and Ds in Alaska thought the patronage deal with Daddy smelled to high heaven, and are disgusted with how it was handled.

Former Gov. Knowles has already announced that he's running against her and has a pretty good shot.

[stevedeshazer]

22. Oregon

7 electoral votes. Went narrowly for Gore in 2000.

I hear a lot of people count Oregon solidly in the Dem column, but it could go either way. The radical right is well-organized here and the RNC is going to spend piles of money.

[Arugula Latte]

52. On the other hand

Although the vote was close between Gore and AWOL George, Nader picked up some 5 percent here. Even if a large portion of those voters are Green-onlies, I'm sure there's still an extra percentage point or two that would break for the Dem. this time if he Nader sits it out.

[MissB]

60. I see it as solidly Democratic

Oregon has been hit hard. The unemployment rate here is horrible - it seems like we have been in the top two or three for two years.

[SaveElmer]

26. Virginia - fuhgetaboutit

Even with a popular Democrat Governor Democrats don't have a prayer. Best we can hope for is about 43%

[MediumBrownDog]

40. Agree, also in Virginia, not a chance

n/t

[Democrats unite]

29. Florida...

What can I say, we will just have to wait & see.

[Anaxamander]

35. Florida as well...

...transplanted from Georiga.

Hard to say. Really weird state. You've got your solid Dem areas like Leon County, Volusia, Dade, etc., but then you've got the <shudder> panhandle that was all red last time (plus it's in the central time zone--remember the stink over that? Why can't we just give that piece to Alabama?).

Then you've got to factor in the chicanery. Doesn't look good. Especially since Jeb beat Dem challenger Bill McBride for the governorship.

All I can do is hope...

...and campaign my fucking ass off.

[JohnLocke]

39. Florida here

[onethatcares]

64. Present here too in the Tampa area

I've been focusing on the black vote, and if they turn out the way they've been talking, this area will be solid dem. Many are really pissed at the MLK photo op, most are aware of the programs and jobs that aren't anymore.

[Doomsayer13]

31. California

The recall election makes a Bush defeat harder, but he's not terribly popular here. You can put us in the lean Dem category.

[dawn]

44. In California too, and I think we will go Dem.

I agree, even with the recall election, Bush is not very popular here. Even though Ah-nuld is there, the rest of the people in power are Dems.

[MisterP]

32. Österreich-an-der-Pazifischen-Ozean

probably safe (D), low chance of swinging, *'s been lying low since the ambulatory leg of ham started being a dork all over the state.

[Woodstock]

38. Be this Caleeforneea?

And the leg of ham Aaaaanold?

[1gobluedem]

33. Another Michigander checking in...

...if Detroit will mobilize and get out the vote, the Dems will win big in Michigan. It was just announced today that MI's unemployment rate has gone up AGAIN and Electrolux in mid-Michigan just announced it was pulling out and moving itself and its jobs to Mexico. Even though the Electrolux plant was located in a fairly conservative area, they can see that * isn't helping them or Michigan.

[Devlzown]

37. Mississippi

I think y'all know.:cry:

[goobergunch]

42. Pennsylvania (21 EV): 52% Democratic chances (n/t)

[Terran]

43. Missouri: I haven't a clue

It'll be the cities versus the countryside, as always. We are in a horrible economic mess here, but I don't know that people are blaming Bush for it. Our current Dem Governor is likely doomed, but fortunately another Dem, our state Auditor, a woman with an excellent track record of looking after the people's interests, is running against him.

I think 2000 was a fairly close call for Bush; I can't imagine that some people in the rural areas aren't pissed at him by now.

[hatrack]

47. MO is going to be a tossup

Bush won in 2000, but only by about 75,000 votes. There are Puke strongholds like Springfield/Joplin and the southern rural half of te state, but St. Louis, Kansas City & Columbia are reliably Democratic. Northern rural Missouri tends to vote Republican, but there's a substantial blue dog component, so who knows how that will turn.

In addition, MO has led the nation in manfacturing job losses since 2001 (something like 95,000 last time I looked), the state's budget deficit is anywhere between 150 and 600 million for fiscal 2005, the roads are disintegrating and the Legislature isn't going to do jack shit, thanks to a bountiful supply of first-term Republicans who know everything and are happy to tell you about it.

God, gays and guns will play well in certain areas, but a lot of people are more worried about jobs than they are about flags & school prayer this time around.

[GRocky]

45. MN - Up in the air.

I'm pretty sure it will go Dem, but the Republicans are catching up every year. As the suburbs grow, it seems more and more people throw their votes in the Republicans' direction. I think somebody ought to do a study about why suburbanites always want to vote Republican. It's a scourge, I tell you. A scourge!

The governor is now a Republican, and with the passing of Paul Wellstone, the total scumbag known as Norm Coleman took control. What a bastard.

[NewJeffCT]

46. CT - Solidly Dem

Well, we have a Republican governor and 3 of our 5 reps in Congress are RepubliCONs, but our 2 senators are Democrats and both houses of the state legislature are solidly Democratic and I expect that we'll go for the Democratic nominee over our native son, W*...

[fujiyama]

62. Seems like your...

puke governor is pretty corrupt as well.

[Redneck Socialist]

50. NH likely bush. n\t

[bleedingheart]

51. PA - I think solid Dem but will still take effort to GOTV

[corporatewhore]

54. I live in texas so i can vote green if i feel like it and dont pester me

about it

[GOPisEvil]

56. Are you kidding? We could vote for each other, and it wouldn't matter.

:D

[ulysses]

57. GA - somewhere between slim and none.

[ThomWV]

58. WV - Democratic but a Close One

It was gun contol that lost West Virginia to the Dud last time. I think that issue has been properly addressed by General Clark but there is still a perception that the Party is agains gun ownership. That needs some work and maybe after the big contests are done the candidates can devote some time to defusing that issue, and maybe even finding a way to make the Dud look bad there.

Here is what I've been telling folks - That Richard Pearle, a senior Republican and advisor to the Dud, has made the recommendation that all Americans be required to carry an National Identity Card. I then tell them that the card that will be issued to them differs from their Social Security Card because this one will be required to be in their possession. Then I mention that it will be connected by magnetic strip to the FBI Center in Clarksburgn, WV (a facility that is known all over this state) and that the data bases there will, because of the gun registration, show the Government where everyone of them lives who owns a gun. It mention that it is the first step towards confiscation of their firearms - and its being done by Bush and company. Let me tell you something, its gets their attention.

Thom

Thom

[cmf]

59. Washington - leans Democratic

I live in the Western half of the state, so if I just went off of what I see around here, I'd say Bush* didn't have a chance. But over in Eastern Washington it's a totally different story - it's heavily Republican. Fortunately more people live on this side of the state. Economically, things have only become worse here since 2000, so I think that people are really angry at Bush* and I think that will help tip the scales in favor of the eventual Democratic nominee. 15,000 people showed up at a Dean rally here last summer, which was amazing, and I think this is indicative of the anger people feel at the current administration. I think the anger is still there and I think we're going to get big Democratic turnout at the polls come November. I'm interested to see what type of turnout we'll have Feb 7 at the caucus - I think it will be big.

[jsw_81]

63. Washington will almost certainly go Democratic

We even supported Dukakis when he was losing almost everywhere else.

[AmericanErrorist]

61. ND: No Chance in Hell

North Dakota has historically trended GOP, and I don't see that changeing unless the Dems spend a lot of effort campaining here.