Consumer confidence at highest level since 2002? (Hmmm)

[underpants]

I found the graphic below whilest looking around on yahoo news photos. 96.8% why I could have sworn that it was at 100.1% in an earlier report so thanks to the DU search function I found the thread (mine) from earlier this month. The graphic on that one is gone but as the subject line states the consumer confidence WAS at 100.1%.






Consumer confidence strengthened in January, rising to its highest level since mid-2002. (AP Graphic)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=999386

[Brotherjohn]

1. What always amazes me about these indices reaching "highs"...

... is that they are usually merely returning to levels from earlier in the Bush administration. Take job growth. Sure, job growth is up compared to the last couple of years. But barring some miracle, the Bush administration will end up being the first since Hoover with a net loss in jobs.

In other words, while these numbers mean that perhaps some of what we have lost during his tenure is being regained, we are still worse off than when he took office.

The one exception I can think of where an economic indicator reached a high for the last decade or more is when, a couple of months ago, the media were all ga ga over the economy growing at the fastest rate in something like 11 years. But a growth RATE means little without an actual number as to where it IS. If the economy goes into a slump (which it did during the early Bush administration), and then begins to rebound, then it is likely to exhibit a fairly high growth rate during that rebound (that's why it's called a rebound). Perhaps higher than anytime since, say, the last rebound... which occurred at the beginning of the Clinton administration, after the slump of the Bush I administration.

When the economy was buzzing along in the Clinton years, you wouldn't see a high growth rate (it was already high; in fact, people were worried about TOO fast a growth rate). It's typically after the economy plummets that, during a rebound, you will see fast growth rates. Not coincidentally, the economy has plummeted during the last two republican (Bush) administrations.

[underpants]

3. Very good points

It's all relative. To tell you the truth I had never ever stopped to consider the 8.6% growth rate and what it meant. Okay now I don't have to wait to find the "revised" numbers that are sure to be released. Thanks.

[papau]

2. Another Econ Down that media says is up-- Bush forecast was 99, so we

got 96.8 - so the market which has sold me the 99 for 2 weeks now, will sell me the 96.8 and say put more money in the market.

Hmmmm .... seems there is a sell off today - must be "profit taking"

:-)