Will there be any NEW votes for Bush* in November?

[enough]

I just had an optimistic thought.

We all know Republicans and independents who say they voted for Bush* in 2000, but will not vote for him in 2004. So I'm wondering:

Where are the people who voted for Gore or Nader in 2000 who will switch their vote to Bush in November? Are there any? I can't think where they would come from.

If this is true, and given that Bush* lost by 500,000 votes in 2000, doesn't this mean he is in real trouble?

Then again, there's always Diebold.

[BigDaddyLove]

1. The only 'new votes' for Bush will be from the scion of........

diehard Republicans (mostly wealthy) that have turned 18 since 2000.

[Robbien]

4. And many of those are disenchanted because of all

the give away programs. What the Repubs do not realize is that once a vote is lost, in these times that vote is definitely lost. At this for this election.

[Old and In the Way]

16. But even that demographic is going to be motivated to vote

Democratic...except for the wealthiest 1%, the rest may be compelled to vote Democrat if they think a draft is a distinct possibility. I think that would be a distinct possibility if Bush was to be re-elected. He has destroyed the volunteer Army with his reckless application in Iraq.

[Eric J in MN]

2. Unfortunately, yes. "I support the President" isn't an expression

Unfortunately, yes. "I support the President" isn't an expression used a lot around here, but there are people who embrace that attitude.

[Spirochete]

23. saying "I support the President"

while he's in office, is a generic term, and doesn't mean that person won't vote to replace the president, and support the new one, as well.

[Faygo Kid]

3. Interesting. Thanks. But, don't underestimate Rove.

I liked your post. Has Bush maximized his base? (Another way of putting it). But, don't underestimate the Fear Factor that Rove will put in place. Gay marriage will destroy your family; only Bush can protect us from the Bad Guys; blacks will take white jobs; Dems will raise your taxes, and spend them on welfare queens; Rush and Hannity will shame people into voting for Bush. A good post, though. And then again, as you say, there's always Diebold.

[Robbien]

5. But all the people who the fear factor can cow

are already doing their cowering in the Bush camp. This has been the GOP theme for the last three years and the fear mongering gets old.

[Faygo Kid]

6. You may be right. I hope to God you are.

I very much liked Kerry getting in front of this yesterday by saying Bush is the extremist, and he will not tolerate a campaign like the smears against Max Cleland. There is hope; for the Repukes, there is always Diebold and the Katherine Harrises of the world.

[BigDaddyLove]

8. Maybe I'm just a bit too optimistic, but the sort of people........

who will believe the sorts of things (against affirmative action, afraid of taxes and welfare queens etc.) necessary to vote for Bush are grossly outnumbered by those who see Bush (and Republicans) as an incredible threat to America.

Especially after he has had four long years to attempt to bring America back into the early eighties....we've come too far since those ideas had any real traction, and I think that America is more enlightened and believes in things that go directly against the GOP's platform.

Although you may not hear it on Hannity, Republican ideals are quickly becoming very unpopular in America. The ONLY thing they can possibly run on is this whole 'war time President' thing, and even that is such a joke that most people see right through it.

I think that many people forgot what it was like to have a Republican in the White House in 2000, but now, having been refreshed, will vote his ass out in droves.

[Faygo Kid]

13. I agree. Look out for voter fraud, or declaration of martial law.

Thanks for your post. We are on the same wavelength. I agree; Rove will motivate many out of fear, but will it be enough? Probably not. So, Phase Two: Voter fraud, on a massive scale. Phase Three (last resort): Declare martial law; cancel the election. After GWB's performance today on MTP, I fear what may happen to him, by those who put him in place. He is obviously out of it, and incapable of being the Machiavellian figure we have made him out to be. If that is the case, he is indeed expendable, by the neocons. I don't like where my train of thought is going, here. This isn't entertaining anymore, if it ever was.

[mose82]

7. The Youth Factor

will be very significant this time. All the college-ages who didn't vote before will be by definition new voters, and many of them will go for Bush. However, many are liberal, and I think they will far outweigh the Bush voters. Basically, I think nearly all of Bush's new voters will be those who for one reason or another didn't vote in 2000. And yes, many of these will be "I support our president" types, so we need to stay energized.

[Toots]

9. If the Ticket turns out to be Bush*/McCain......

This is what we are going to deal with and it throws a whole new light on the matter.

[BigDaddyLove]

12. I honestly wonder if McCain would accept the VP spot........

I'm inclined to think that he wouldn't. I think he still dispises Bush as much as he did when had to concede defeat to him in 2000.

[shivaji]

18. Never thought of that but it makes a lot of sense since...

they will promise McCain the nomination in 2008..with no
opposition. May be why McCain accepted chair of the CIA
failure commission.

[StopThief]

10. There are plenty of people out there who will vote for . . .

the status quo as long as their personal situation is fine. These paople would have voted for Gore in 2000 and will vote for Bush in 2004.

[DrZhivago]

11. remember nine eleven

and the instant patriots "just add american flag bumper sticker"

[Pobeka]

14. I have never seen anger at a sitting president like this before.

(I'm not old enough to remember Viet Nam...)

I'm not talking about DU. I'm talking about people I run into every day. Willing to say what a failure Bush is, and they want him out.

We have to keep up the full frontal attack though. It is not a time to be complacent. We need to think of this as a time for "overwhelming force". Keep pointing out to everyone you meet what a horrible mess this guy has put us in, and we need an adult to lead us out of it, not a frightened child who wants to control us, and take the tax dollars we pay and give it to his rich buddies.

[waywest]

22. I never thought I'd long for the Nixon years.

Nixon's family will owe W* a debt of gratitude.

[arewethereyet]

15. some things to take in to consideration

If Kerry ins the Dem nominee, there will be fewer right to left crossover votes, much less. Nader votes are unpredictable and I would not rely on them pulling the "D" lever. There will be the question of Gore voters who turn right over security concerns.

I figure it will be a wash or cost the left slightly.

As usual it will come down to turnout, who can do the better job. THe GOP is taking this to heart this time so we had better be prepared.

[lancdem]

20. I don't know if that's true about Kerry

I think he can appeal to moderates and disaffected Repubs.

[shivaji]

17. Yes! Barbara & Jenna

wait....may be only one of them will vote for him,
and then again both daughters may vote for Kerry LOL

[Pops]

19. The right wing and left wing DOES agree!

This is my first post here. Surprisingly I found this board from a reference on a predominantly right wing site that was, of course, “smirking” at the crazies. However, I am amazed at the similarities between many of the views expressed on the two boards regarding the Resident in Chief!

Before you cast me out as a Troll:
My bookmarks include Common Dreams, buzzflash, etc.
I’m a registered Dem. Though my position on specific issues probably covers the spectrum.
I’ve almost always voted Dem.

The reason I frequent “Those” boards is I’m interested in preparing for potential “Situations” in which I may be forced to rely on MUCH less of the infrastructure most people today take for granted. Those boards are full of advice in these areas. As well as breaking news regarding those same “situation”

Now that I’ve gone off topic on my first post, back to my point!

Several threads here are talking about how Shrub’s base is solidly behind him. I’m not so sure that’s correct. Although I try not to get into political, religious or societal discussions over “there” – I would be ostracized as I’m sure I would be here for having widely different views, it’s hard to miss many of the same references to “October Surprise”, impending declarations of marshal law, suspension of the Bill of Rights, vote manipulation, the list goes on.

Lately I’m thinking his “base” may not be as secure as some think. They would rather give up their guns and put on Blue Helmets than vote for a Baby Killer, but I wonder if they may just stay home in November rather than vote for Shrub. The fact that there are NO threads on the couple of boards I frequent “Over There” on the MTP interview I think speaks volumes!

Combine that (admittedly optimistic) theory with what I hope is a surge in turnout from the left for ABB and Dubya will be on permanent vacation at “The Ranch.”

His only hope is that the half in the middle right are so interested in security at any price, shopping, SUVs and illusionary tax cuts, he can speechify (not to mention browbeat them with ads) into voting for “Four More Oil Wars.”

Thanks for the board – and please don’t rat me off to the “survivalist” unless you can refer me to a Lefties Survivalist site – seriously!

Pops

[Thor_MN]

21. Put it this way

Bush was either going to be a war "hero" or war criminal by choosing to take the nation to war.

Voters this fall will either support a loser or a WAR CRIMINAL by voting for *.

Any sane person would look at those odds, and choose not to choose. They would either take a different path or do nothing. Use the "Mom is Sometimes Right" test. If I jump off this bridge I'll either fly or I'll die. Mom doesn't know anything about being young, but she was right about the bubblegum... Flying would be so cool, but maybe I'll just go ride my bike.....

[Sufi Marmot]

24. Along those same lines, what % of 2000 Nader voters are ABB this year?

That is, what % of Nader voters will vote for the Democratic candidate, regardless of who it is (out of the remaining pool of likely nominees)? Nader got 96,000 votes in Florida - if only 20% of them vote for the Dem nominee, that's 19,000 votes the GOP is already in the hole there. New Hampshire was the other state where Nader voters made the difference between a Democratic victory and loss. This year NH alone won't help us win, but NH plus any other 2000 red state will, if I'm not mistaken.

I personally am a lot more confident about our chances in Florida than many on DU - is it possible that it won't be close enough for the GOP to steal this time...? Am I crazy? (If you respond to this post, please don't bash Nader, 2000 Nader supporters, or any of the Dem candidates or their supporters - thanks!)

-SM