Nader Poll: If he runs, Good for Dems? Bad? No big thing?

[opihimoimoi]

Many of us are getting our underwear in a wad over this Nader guy.

But if we examine the timing/situation, this time its different. Nader "May" be the best thing for us Dems.

Sure we lose some votes but dollar to donuts, so do the angry Pubs. Many of them simply CANNOT vote for a DEM but they CAN/will vote for Nader. What are the ratios?

Who the hell knows? Only Nader will tell.

[NWHarkness]

1. Where's the "No Big Deal" option?

I don't think he has the commitment and organization he's going to need to get ballot qualified.

Remember, in 2000, as Green candidate, he was automatically on the ballot. As an independent, he has to qualify separately in each state, many of which require petition drives, and I don't think he's going to even come close to qualifying in enough states to make a significant difference.

[opihimoimoi]

5. I hope you are right, he is an INDY and will have a time of it.

No qualy, no gravy.

[FaxBot228]

8. Nader?

The Pugs will sign the petitions needed.
what they will be doing this time around is going to backfire on them badly
Mr.Nader may run but I doubt every Republican is pleased with Bush's performance.
There are lots of polls out there and all that, but bush latest slap in the face of his conservative Christian base as he likes to label them like he OWNS them will prove to many as they won't be able to turn the other cheek because they ran out a long time ago. His moral high ground is below sea level By appointing Pryor to the bench this same radical Judge that lead the attack on Judge Roy Moore. he has done his own party a grievous disservice one they won't soon forget.
yes let Mr.Nader run he can take some of Dubyas base Not that America and our party wouldn't enjoy the benefits of those votes.

[Skittles]

15. HOWDY FAXBOT228

WELCOME TO THE DU! :hi:

[newyawker99]

28. Hi FaxBot228!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[opihimoimoi]

32. I happen to conncur

Bush will be attacked from 2 fronts and will wilt like a snowflake on a hot pan.

[shooga]

18. are you sure he's not running as Green

I think a "Mean-Green-and-Dean" bumper sticker would look so cool !



http://www.geocities.com/jaak7777/en04.html#authoritarian

[kentuck]

2. Nader will give it to both Parties which will do more damage to Repubs

He will be a non-factor for the Democratic nominee. However, his tirades about big corporations losing jobs and our country losing our manufacturing base and corporate greed, etc, will mostly further deteriorate the rapidly fading support for George W Bush. I will not lose any sleep over Mr Nader.

[opihimoimoi]

4. I was hoping I was not alone in this thought

[chascarrillo]

7. No party, no federal matching funds either

... at least if I remember my political rulebook correctly. But just getting on the ballot is the bigger hurdle, and one that's insurmontable without a party apparatus.

[reprehensor]

3. Vote Nader! Vote Republican! n/t

[Ardee]

6. I dont vote in these polls but....

....Naders candidacy will be a good thing for the democratic process, showing the world that democracy is far more than what the GOP and the complicitous Democrats are trying to bring to Iraq.

[papau]

9. gives the angry pubs an option over Tush?????

"Bad for the Pubs; gives the angry pubs an option over Tush"

there will be about 60 folks in various locations on the ballot to absorb any protest vote - plus there is the stay at home option

so Nader helps this in some way?

[snippy]

10. Nader will have no impact on the election.

Nearly every election involving an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. This election will be no different. It definitely will be a referendum on Bush. The three main issues will be the economy, the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and Bush's incessant and compulsive lying. These issues will determine 10 to 15 million votes. Those 10 to 15 million votes will preclude another close election. Nader's vote totals will be much lower than in 2000 and insignificant. The people who will vote for Nader are people who would not vote for the candidate of either major party.

Since 9/11 Bush has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bump. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough, Bush will win easily. Nader will not be a factor in any voters' perceptions of Bush.

Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Bush can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq between now and November. Those issues, not Nader, may or may not change the trend for Bush and will decide the election.

[DinahMoeHum]

11. Nader's got fewer allies this time around. He'll be insignificant.

Many of his supporters in 2000 have dropping him like a hot potato and are voting for the Dem candidate no matter what.

:kick:

[BillZBubb]

12. Only bad for Democrats

Nader takes some of the NOT BUSH* vote by definition. A larger percentage of the NOT BUSH* vote would go to the Democratic candidate than would go to Bush* if there was no Nader in the race. Does anyone seriously believe Nader's positions are closer to Repug than Democratic positions? Nader's blatant lying equating the Democrats to the Republicans also hurts.

Therefore, a Nader run is a net loss to the Democrats. There is no way around it.

[snippy]

22. Most of Nader's very few voters would just stay home if he does not run.

This election will not be that close. Either Bush continues as he has for the last two+ years and he loses handily or Bush reverses his trend and wins handily.

[rock]

13. Nader had a miniscule effect on election 2000

Much, much more serious was:
- 60,000 uncounted overvotes in Florida. Al Gore box was marked and "Al Gore" was written in. Wonder who the voter was trying to choose? Guess we'll never know.
- Jews for Buchanan. Nuff said.
- Disenfranchied "Ex-cons"
- Road blocks for licenses check
- etc.

All more damaging than Nader.

[bullimiami]

24. I dont think that is quite true

Didnt Nader get like 95000 votes in florida in 2000.
yes there were lots of other factors that sapped something like 50000 votes from Gore but the Nader vote was still big.
Im sure not all of those 95000 would have shown up to vote for Gore but enough would have.
The GOP had multiple dirty tricks going all at once and barely pulled it off. Any one of these factors could have tipped it back.

andy
miami, in the middle of it.

[DennisReveni]

25. 1,1 MILLION gays voted for Bush

First Maher claimed 1 million gays voted for Bush.
Then I found this,
http://www.logcabincolumbus.org/VOTE%20ANALYSIS.htm
BUSH CAPTURED 25% OF THE GAY VOTE (1.1 Million Votes) NATIONWIDE, A RECORD NUMBER FOR A GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE

So, why blame Nader?
If anything blame the Gay voters who supported Bush.

[opihimoimoi]

30. Most if not all were PUB gays most of whom are in the closet.

Its no big deal.

[fortyfeetunder]

14. Good for Pugs

Remember Murka is made of simple minded people and Nader is far too complex to comprehend. If Nader runs, Bush wins....

[bacchant]

16. My brother

was one of those folks who bought the absurdly simplistic "no difference between dems and pubs" mantra, and voted for Nader. I've been kicking his ass for it ever since. There's no denying that our political system is broken and being subverted by moneyed interests on both sides of the aisle, but as he now knows, the difference between us and them is life and death.

Later Nader.

[OneBlueSky]

17. totally meaningless . . .

his vote totals this time around will be so low that he'll lose whatever credibility he has left . . . he probably won't even get onto the ballot in most states . . . just ignore him . . .

[opihimoimoi]

19. I really want to believe Nader will be an insignificant force

but I still am concerned.

[buddhamama]

20. no big deal

that is my sincere opinion.

the majority of Democrats would never consider voting third party this time around, and i believe that after four yrs of Bush many new voters will come into the fold.

you're spot on,imo, about Nader doing more damage to the repubs,especially if he runs as an independent.

[opihimoimoi]

21. There has got to be a whole bunch of Pubs angry with the Shrub

but cannot vote for a Dem. So if the Nader guy wants to run, in my mind, he will be the third option and the Pubs will lose more than gain.

If its the other way around, that the Dems lose a few, the difference should be of little consequence. I hope.

Go Dems.

[onecitizen]

23. No way can this be the least bit........

good for Dems in any way.

[opihimoimoi]

27. But perhaps its not all that bad.

The diff a bit minor(mynah).

Das iz all I saying.....

Come, we go drink, eat

[onecitizen]

29. I'd LOVE to go drink..........

and eat!! Two of my most favorite things to do!

[Ksec]

26. I dont think it will make a difference this election since

we Dems are united and fired up. The base is gonna show up big and Nader aint gonna have any effect .

[opihimoimoi]

31. I truley hope we are correct in this assessment.

Over view: I think Nader gonna help tear down the Bush House of Cards. Dems will have a better chance of it.