Why I think Bush called for the amendment

[Walt Starr]

To me, this is a win-win scenario for Bush. In fact, the only way Bush loses on this one is if the Congress actually passes the thing and sends it to the states for ratification!

Here's the deal. He's been losing his radical Christian base due to things like Patriot and what they see as no movement on the abortion issue and "the homosexual agenda" advancing on all measures.

So, Bush calls for this amendment which energizes these radical fundamentalist Christians. The amendment goes down in flames so Bush can now say, "See, I need your help for another four years to get this sorted out. I tried and these folks would not help me stop that evil homosexual agenda." The radical fundamentalist Christian Right is now energized and Bush* doesn't make the mistake his father made which was losing that base. They stayed home in droves in '92.

By the time November rolls around, this is all a distant memory that the mushy middle won't even consider.

So to reiterate, this is a win-win for Bush so long as Congress does not send it to the states for ratification.

[The Zanti Regent]

1. It will go to the states

The sad truth is that it will pass.

[MurikanDemocrat]

4. Not a chance

[Atlant]

34. Are you counting on the guy in your avatar to stop it?

You may be in for a rude surprise, as was the Anti-War movement
when it laid some stock in that same fellow.

Atlant

[Walt Starr]

6. I disagree

67 votes in the Senate and 290 votes in the House are a HUGE hurdle. Ain't gonna happen.

[unblock]

2. how is passage and/or ratification a 'lose' for bush

a loss for the country, yes, but not for b*sh....

[Walt Starr]

7. Because it will piss off enough of the mushy middle

because it will remain in the news all summer long as States take up the issue.

The mushy middle does not believe an amendment is necessary here.

[StClone]

16. What will peeve

Is all the time, energy and money lost as the Right sets up this distraction while the Iraq sucks up lives and money, the Economy is stalled and jobs leave for Cheap labor countries.

[I AM SPARTACUS]

21. I think he loses from the middle - where folks don't see the need

for an amendment.

Rovian mathematics may have calculated that Bushco picks up more fundies than the mids that they lose...but they still erode the support from the middle...

[Walt Starr]

31. But the issue is over in a month

and is not mentioned throughout the summer.

The middle won't even think about it come November, by then the issue is just a faded memory.

[MurikanDemocrat]

3. Yep, it's a GOTV ploy for the religious right and bigots

[saltpoint]

5. Hi, Walt. You have a good angle on this.

Do you think moderate Republicans like Lincoln Chaffee and Olympia Snowe will support Bush on this?

If they don't, I'm not sure Frist can muster the votes.

What do you see happening in the Senate?

[Walt Starr]

10. They will never get the votes

Republicans will vote against this thing or lose re-election.

60% of the country thinks an amendment is not needed here. That's a tough nut to crack when a two-thirds majority is required in each house of Congress.

No way will 67 votes be cast in favor of this in the Senate.

[Silverhair]

33. 77% of the nation opposes gay marriage.

How does a vote for the amendment hurt a Rep? It is the Dems in congress that are running scared on it.

The middle is very heavily opposed to gay marriage. Most of the people who support it are ALREADY Democrats.

[Enraged_Ape]

35. Whether or not they oppose gay marriage...

I really believe only a few hardcore fascist bigots consider it an important issue enough to reinstall the drooling idiot moron for four more years. Pretty much every Republican I know is sick of war, terror, unemployment, and most of all, Bush.

Bush did this to try to gain a few points with people as dumb as he is. Since he's an incompetent boob on every single issue, he wants to think he can count on at least a few votes.

[Walt Starr]

38. 60% of Americans oppose the amednment

Specter will be devestated by voting for the amendment.

[KC21304]

8. I don't agree. I think Bush overplayed his hand.

CNN said there are 1 1/2 million Republican gays and they are not happy. ANdrew Sullivan is coming on Aaron BRown in a minute and he is really steamed. He wrote a wonderful article on his blog today.

http://www.andrewsullivan.com/index.php?dish_inc=archives/2004_02_22_dish_archive.html#107764340071973047

[viveledifrence]

11. Andrew Sullivan

I thought Andrew was a card carrying right winger????

[KC21304]

20. He's on CNN right now. No more voting for Bush.

[Walt Starr]

12. But the issue will be played out before April gets here

and it won't even be a blip on the radar screen in November.

Bush has to shore up his numbers with his base, NOW!!! He cannot afford to wait. The single fact of Republican electoral politics is, you lose the radical Christian base, you've done lost the election.

[viveledifrence]

9. Bush amendment

Bush is stooooopid, this is a huge mistake. Everyone knows someone who is gay, even Chenie's daughter is gay. The only states that are going to pass this are probably Arkansas, South Carolina and Floriduh.

[Sagan]

13. I respectfully disagree..

This is a defensive move by Chimpy. Rove knows that they cannot go into the campaign season without their fundie whacko base assured. They have to tighten that base down and be sure of their support before they can lie about being moderate, which is how Chimpy came so close to winning in 2004.

[Walt Starr]

14. That's precisely what I'm saying

This issue goes away before April is over! The wackos are happy and are ready to vote and he can move to the center in the summer.

Win-win.

[KC21304]

22. Andrew Sullivan just said on CNN that Republican's have lost

gay voters for a generation.

[HornBuckler]

15. I Don't Think This Will Come To Terms

Before The Election, It's A PR Stunt

[yellowcanine]

17. This is his thinking but he is wrong this time

He is being too clever by half and it is showing. The fundies aren't going to be satisfied with window dressing. They expect Bush to try and pass this thing. Also, he has created difficulty for some Republican senators up for reelection - most notably Arlen Specter of Pa. Specter would certainly rather not deal with this now. It is lose-lose for him. The Democrats would be smart to let this come to a vote. A vote against this doesn't hurt most of them but Republicans are in more of a bind I think, particularly senators. The public is nearly evenly divided and probably slightly against in most states. That is not the kind of issue senators like to vote on. Also this is really going to hurt Bush with a lot of independents and swing voters, who tend to be more liberterian in outlook. It makes him look extremist. He is doing it to cater to his base, but the fact that he has to do it tells you he thinks he is in trouble.

[viveledifrence]

25. specter

yes arlen specter is well respected in gop circles, he a towering figure.........if he has trouble getting elected then its bye bye bush...i really think bush is going to try to short circuit the entire process and call a national emergency sometime in september....that way he can abolish the elctions for the good of the people...ha ha ha...you heard it here first.............

[madrchsod]

18. remember the "focus on the family" poll

that showed the vast majority of people favored staying the hell out of other people`s lives? they killed the polling because it wasn`t what they wanted to hear. the vast majority of people in the usa don`t care what the hell other adults do in their own homes.

[windansea]

19. NY Times sez same thing

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/25/politics/25ASSE.html?hp=&pagewanted=all&position=

[fishnfla]

23. I dont think this will be settled by Nov

Shrub can beg the fundies for 4 more years to get it done.

[F.Gordon]

24. This is the 2004 version of the IWR

:tinfoilhat:

It will be used to divert attention away from the 32,335 lies and distortions Bush* has in his closet. It's a noise machine and nothing else.

Soo....if you're against this amendment: "you're against MARRIAGE". You're a "terrorist". You're against "freedom".

The timing is certainly suspect, and I'd go so far as to say this has been planned as early as 1995. With tinfoil hat firmly in place, of course....

[viveledifrence]

27. bush terror

its bush who is the terrorist he scares me with these amendments, next thing you know sodomy will be illegal again and the catholic church will skip......think about it.........

[F.Gordon]

30. Couldn't agree more....

its bush who is the terrorist

And WELCOME to DU!!!

[seabeyond]

26. too soon to say

but i think all are selling people short, and from the sound of board amount of time i have been here, well i know that there may be some resent or whatever over the last couple years, i work a little different.

i am hearing the true lovers of constitution, republicans, who have allowed themselves to be convinced to abuse the document the last decade, a little here and there with the fast talking loud mouth right, stop in their track. with a big whoooo. not into gay marriage but even more even they are clearly hearing using an amendment to take away rights, restrict, discriminate. and instead of seeing defeat, a win win for bush, i see this as the greatest mis step for bush.

i am hearing people who have fought for this country, conservatives hearing a retardness in what the neocons are saying. i told husband just now, i cant even say republicans anymore, it is now to the neocons that are the bad guys, seeing republicans, true republicans normal joes not going to be able to support bush on this. republicans have been disgusted with bush on so many things, i think this tampering here is going to push them over the age.

now again to clarify, generally i like to sit in it a bit to feel the energy adn not make projections, yet everyone i think is missing the higher in this, and the more that get on board and put out the positive in the higher, the more draw and attraction there is

just a suggestion

i do not see these people as evil and wont create them as such and am not here to battle them, am here to embrace them

[viveledifrence]

28. evil gopcrats

yes its mostly the neo cons who work for the mossad and blackmail congress and the supreme court....its their fault gore couldnt succeeed in the fla recount conservative zionist neo cons blocked it.....the cabal is active all over.....dont believe differently......

[alcuno]

29. Constitutional amendment is like the Mission to Mars.

It takes way to long to capture the attention of the American public.

[snippy]

32. Bush definitely is appealing to the base with this. But, it is a sign of

weakness that an incumbent president needs to appeal to his base at this point in time. Bush and Turd Blossom Rove are worried.

[Sgt. Peppers]

36. I disagree, why? Because Queer Eye is a hit, which means...

Eather thay agree that gays should be equal, or we have some crowded closets.

[wellstone_democrat]

37. talked about just this issue last night

at a political strategy meeting. We agree absolutely.
It will not be allowed out of Congress because of the "machinations" of the "liberals"

Our job: to pressure our local Rep (R-Loonytown) as to why, with a full majority in the house and senate this isn't zipped RIGHT OUT to the states!