Prediction: The anti-gay marriage amendment will hurt Bush

[WillyBrandt]

Or at minimum, it will have no effect. At the moment, I've only got a gut feeling, and haven't thought it through entirely--but, after all, reason is merely intuition in a hurry.

I suspect that this will just fall flat like the Moon Base, the Mars Mission, and the Saddam Capture.

Simple time and tolerance have helped acceptance of gays in the US. And I believe--honestly--that shows like Queer Eye, while full of flaws and stereotypical, have made the standard image of gays closer to "harmless" than "heretic." Lesbian kisses on TV are starting to get shrugs.

People have been exposed to gays in their private life and through the mass media, and what was shock is now a yawn. Gays, it turns out, are really pretty boring, just like the rest of us.

My guess: the issue will float away, dying a Moon-Base-esque death, or will be a positive object of ridicule. I very much doubt that we're going to see intense polarization, as Bush hopes for. Those that really care are already pro or anti-Bush. The mushy middle might have varying views, but gay marriage not utmost on their minds: shitty health care and jobs are. It's an emotionally "shallow" issue that has little bearing on most people's minds.

The man on the street's reaction? "Yeah, I guess I don't think gays should marry, but I guess if they want to get bank accounts together that's OK. But who cares about all these damn queers, anyway!? I need a job!"

Another Bush backfire. Watch.

ON EDIT: The Dem candidates have an obvious--and safe--response. "What's the matter with you? Americans are dying in Iraq, going jobless in America, and you're worried about a bunch of old gay people in California? Don't you know what regular Americans are dealing with?"

ON EDIT: Any gay male readers are asked to judge the guys on Colin Quinn's "Tough Crowd" on basis of their looks. They're really ugly, right, in a total sort of way?

[mitchtv]

1. every time he opens his mouth

his numbers go down.

[David Dunham]

2. Very good and correct point.

Bush's best issue is trying to get people to believe the economy is improving. If he does that, he wins. But as long as he talks about this amendment, he loses.

[Maat]

4. I have a feeling you're right.

Talking to my fellow law students, my neighbors, my family, and my husband's business partners ... all I have talked to support civil rights for all (including the right for all to marry). I probably have a few nutty relatives, currently living in OK (no offense to Oklahomans -- they moved there and foisted themselves upon you) that consider themselves conservative evangelicals -- and who probably support the Amendment because its chic in their church -- but they will not talk to me about it because they know where I stand.

[coloradodem2005]

23. True.

As for talking about the economy, his defense of outsourcing really backfired on him. As well it should.

[brook]

3. I agree...

this will damage *...for all the reasons you state - and because there are millions of people who have friends, children or relatives who have been freed in the recent years to be who they are. The closet is open. No parent, real friend, loving relative will accept labeling their loved ones as lesser citizens. It ain't gonna happen. What he's trying to do disturbs me - but I am bouyed by my belief it will bring him down.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. You could be right

While most people don't support gay marriage, most people don't believe the Constitution should be amended to prohibit it, thus leaving it to the states.

And while many people are prejudiced against gays, the vicious hatred of the right wing will be an even greater turn off.

[Ladyhawk]

6. After Canada's recent decision to back gay marriages,

the United States looks positively medieval. I've been so ashamed of my country lately.

[Silverhair]

7. Wishful thinking.

Wedge issues are not designed to work on everybody. All they need is a percentage of the voters to be swayed by it and it works. Since today's issue of Newsweek has a poll that shows 77% of the general populace opposes gay marriage, then those who are swayed by it will mostly be swayed in his direction.

Further, this will simply be one item in the campaign. They aren't going to base their entire campaign on one issue. His primary issue is going to be national security.

[WillyBrandt]

8. They are going to make this a centerpiece, because they

are failing on other issues. Let them make National Security their campaign if this fails: the Hero will crush the Zero.

As for your point about opposition--it might be wide, but it's not deep. My father is opposed to gay marriage (but supports the dodge of civil unions), but no way in hell is he voting Republican.

It won't have lasting political salience.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. There are two problems with that

First, as WillyBrandt says in post number 8, the cultral wars is the only issue they have.

Second, the cultural right is voting for Bush anyway.

In the end, most Americans aren't as far right as the Christian Coalition. While most Americans don't favor gay marriage, they are even more uncomfortable with the politics of hate and exclusion.

[Silverhair]

12. Really?

You said, "In the end, most Americans aren't as far right as the Christian Coalition. While most Americans don't favor gay marriage, they are even more uncomfortable with the politics of hate and exclusion."

If that were true, then why do 38 states have DOMAs, and why did a federal DOMA pass and was signed by a DEMOCRATIC President?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

14. I believe polls also show ....

....that while the general populace may oppose gay marraige they also oppose a constitutional ammendment banning such.

[NewEnglander]

16. Not so fast

99% of my family is democrat, spread out over 15 states. The majority find what they're seeing on the news from San Fran repulsive, and are dead set against it. Because of this issue they may even vote for Bush. My father-in-law would vote democrat or die, but he said he supports Bush on this one.

So before we start saying this will hurt Bush, we need to see what the American people will really support.

Also, Kerry and Edwards are being very transparent with thier answers today. 'Leave it up to the states.' Everyone knows that means it will get resolved in a federal appeals court, which will overturn any state law or constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Why don't they just come out and say what they mean? We need our guys to speak the truth!!!

[Silverhair]

31. Constitution amendments can not be overturned by any court. n/t

[cryofan]

9. Yep: Bushco has developed a Tin Ear

So many people have come into contact with gays in the office and exposed to it on TV, that only some of his base will care about this.

Bushco is on a MAJOR losing streak!

[brook]

11. One of my clients...

came up to me today (at some effort, given the distance between the public space and mine and my client's disability) and volunteerd: "You know, I'm a registered Republican - and I filled in my absentee ballot today. I couldn't vote for Bush". The client then went on to ennumerate the reasons - this assault on the Constitution, the deficit, the immigration issue - and the degradation of State's Rights. A short time later, another client was telling me that her partner (very conservative) was thoroughly disenchanted with * - for many of the same reasons. While I cannot relish someone else's disillusionment - it gave me great hope. BTW, both were disgusted by Nader's entry into the race, calling him an "egotist" and a "spoiler".

[Kinkistyle]

15. Tin Ear my ass! 9/11 War-Frenzy is starting to die down.

Bush was always doomed to be a sub-par failure of a president. The only reason why his approval ratings rose anywhere above 50% is because of 9/11 and the ensuing pall of bloodthirsty craving for war and death that fell over the general populace of our country.

But time heals all wounds, and as the wound that 9/11 inflicted on our nation heals, Americans are started to return to a normal thinking pattern and Bush's one-trick pony of "War War War" no longer strikes the chords it used to.

[Redneck Socialist]

13. It is definitely going to hurt him.

He is doing it to shore up his nutty fundie base and to attempt to peel off some of the culturally conservative "Reagan democrats" for whom this might be a real issue.

Like you said, most folks don't really care about it. What they do care about is messing with the Constitution. Most everyone understands that tampering with the constitution is serious business and I suspect that for most folks gay marriage doesn't quite rise to the level of constitutional crisis.

[Kinkistyle]

17. All Kerry has to do is show some photos from SF.

Only the most cold-hearted bigots will be able to take away these people's long-awaited happiness.

[Hamlette]

18. I agree it will not help him

I also agree with the comment that all he can talk about is the economy and convince America it is going up. (On The Newshour tonight the republican commentator was making the case of the economic recovery and said: look at the numbers from the 3rd quarter 2003 it was the strongest it has been in 18 months. How friggin' pathetic is that? Best in 18 MONTHS?)

The gay issue could be his undoing. Look at Sullivan's blog today. He published emails he's received today. Some were from straights and are conservative and are pissed by this. Neocons and many conservatives are pissed at him over this.

I know conventional wisdom says Bush the elder lost because he lost the religious right. I disagree. Bush the elder lost because he turned the convention over to the extreme right wing and it scared Americans. This gay issue will turn on him. He can't articulate a reason other than those damn activist judges. If he could come on TV and tell us why gay marriage is bad (can't be a religious reason) he might survive. He can't. He won't.

Trust me. I might be blowing smoke but I don't think so.

[WillyBrandt]

19. Excellent Post

Esp regarding Bush pere. Never thought of it that way.

[neebob]

20. God, I hope so

I hope I hope I hope I hope I hope. I know soooooooo many people who (a) support gay rights and (b) think amending the Constitution is stupid. I've begun changing the channel at the mere sight of that stupid face, but when I heard on the radio that he was going to announce his support for the amendment defining marriage I went yeah, you do that, Dipshit. Maybe this incredibly stupid and wrong idea will be his downfall.

[Zero Gravitas]

21. Agree 100%

I think most of the "mushy middle" aren't particularly interested in gay marriage one way or the other. I suspect that many would say that they are not for it, but they wouldn't loose much sleep if it came to pass. I would also think that most of those people are turned off by anti gay bigotry and hatred. The anti-gay marriage activists and this silly constitutional amendment are driven by hatred and bigotry so I think this move will backfire against Bush* Rove must be really desperate if this is what he plans to run a campaign on.

[adamblast]

22. I don't see any Democrats willing to stick their necks out...

...and really stop this.

Both Kerry & Edwards are playing it safe on the issue.

Both say they disagree with the Massechusetts Supreme Court and with SF Mayor Newsom. They're not trying to influence debate for the good, only trying to do damage control.

The only way to prevent the courts from granting same-sex marriage will be this ammendment. Conservatives realize that it's now or never: in 10 years, they'll have lost this issue simply because of the youth demographic. This is their window of opportunity, and they plan to take it.

As the courts get closer to making gay marriage a reality, the shouts for an ammendment will get louder. And the Democrats will continue to look to the polls for inspiration.

I think it's got a very good shot at happening.

Why don't they just make us 3/5 of a citizen, while they're at it... :(

This is not my America.

[Redneck Socialist]

24. It would be nice if the candidates took a stronger stand on this

and I think they will once they see how poorly the amendment idea is going to play.

Some of the other forums I hang out at are pretty heavily populated by freeper type pubs, and while some of them spew some truly horrifying crap you'd be surprised by the number of people who call them on it. The amendment is just not going to fly.

A lot of, I'll even go out on a limb here and say most people, just don't care enough about this issue to get worked up about it. The only people who will be shouting for an amendment will be the loony tune fundies, and people will see that. The intolerant screeching of the fundie set doesn't play well among middle America. Most folks may not support gay marriage, but they dislike messing with the Constitution more.

[notbush]

27. This ain't gonna help us

Barney Frank has said in the last week that the timing of the SF mayor is bad.
Kerry & Edwards both are just trying to put some distance between the issue and themselves. This middle,mush,nothing response to the constitutional question is seen as "waffling".
Get a spine.. that's what they need to do. No BS about fed.law will take care of this, we don't need an amendment.
If the Mass. courts follow up on their promise, every federal politician will be forced to take a stand on this issue.
Kerry & Edwards need to be proactive and come out in favor of gay marriage. NOW!!!!

[Redneck Socialist]

29. I agree that...

...there is no safe middle ground on this issue. Trying to finesse it will just piss off both sides. That being said, I don't think we will see K or E jump on the marriage bandwagon anytime soon. It is unfortunate and sad but I don't feel either one of them has the courage to do so.

Ultimately though the amendment is going to sink bush.

People are just not going to get worked up enough to amend the constitution. They are going to see it for what it is, an attack on a minority for political gain and reject it. The fundies have finally gone too far.

[Kimber Scott]

25. Your feelings are right on

It's hard for me to believe in the 21st century in this great country the president himself wants to promote and legislate hate. Bad move. But, it's all he's ever been able to do. He's a fear-monger.

[westcoastbias]

26. For People with Gay Friends, This is Personal

That would be most of the general public and many Republicans who know gays are great human beings, with at lest better ethics than the rest of us.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. I hope so, State of the Union sure as hell backfired...

I just hope that this doesn't fire up the Repubican base to actually get out and vote for the not so conservative president on election day.

[starroute]

30. Some interesting comments in the blogs

Talking Points Memo suggests it's a political hot potato that the members of Congress really don't want to touch, because no matter which way they vote, they're going to lose more supporters than they gain.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_02_22.html#002603


And Atrios thinks that the proposed amendment would make *all* marriages illegal: "Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any state, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups."

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2004_02_22_atrios_archive.html#107768249637278555