The Top 12 House Races of 2004. <4 Vulnerable Republicans and 4 Vulnerable Democrats and 4 Races to Watch.>
Endangered Republican Incumbents
Anne Northup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48 50-48 Gore
Highly Competitive:
Since her 1996 election, she has survived three Democratic onslaughts. For the 2002 campaign, Democrats recruited Jack Conway. He ran an aggressive campaign against Rep. Northup. Despite being outspent 2-1, Conway was able to keep this race close throughout. Northup hammered Conway on his close ties to embattled Governor Paul Patton. On Election Day 2002, she won a narrow victory, 52-48. Her fundraising prowess has helped her hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizeable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a solid position to reclaim this district.
Update: Jack Conway turned down a rematch with Northup. It now appears Lt. Governor Steven Henry is likely to run for this seat. Also Tony Miller has announced he will run. Miller is a proven vote getter in Louisville. This was be Northup’s closest race.
John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46 56-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Indiana’s 8th Congressional District was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. This district is the epitome of a swing district. According to the “2002 Almanac of American Politics,” this district at one point during the 1970s elected four congressmen in four successive elections. Since 1994, Rep. Hostettler has survived four close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised a mere $5,018. He is the exact opposite of Northrup, having been out- spent, in two of his last three races. Rep. Hostettler has grown accustom to the close elections in the district. Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.
Most Vulnerable Republican Freshman
Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45 54-45 Gore
Highly Competitive:
The father of Max Burns’ opponent, State Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker Sr., created this district for his son, much to the dismay of the voters. Rep. Burns was able to use voter dissatisfaction with Democratic redistricting and President Bush’s popularity to his advantage. On Election Day, Charles Walker Jr. and his father were defeated. The perception of Democratic gerrymandering haunted Georgia Democrats that year. This is the only district in Georgia that Al Gore won that is represented by a non black Democrat. Rep. Burns would be extremely vulnerable against a strong well-financed opponent. This predominantly Democratic district is the wrong place for a conservative like Max Burns. Rep. Burns is the weakest Republican incumbent in America.
Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46 51-46 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Update: Change from Competitive to Highly Competitive
This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. National democrats were disappointed at Udall’s defeat and were slow to give to Cordova. Rep. Renzi outspent Cordova 2-1. Republicans also poured over four million dollars into this race. Renzi was bolstered by a last minute visit by President Bush. After all the money Republicans spent and Bush’s visit, Renzi only won by 49-46. The result of the election showed how close this swing district really is. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America. Update: It now appears that Paul Babbitt, Bruce Babbitt’s brother, will run against Rep. Renzi. This development could provide Democrats with the top notch candidate they have sought.
Bob Beauprez - Colorado 7th Congressional district 47-47 47-47 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Rep. Bob Beauprez was elected congressman in 2002 by 121 votes, the closest margin that year. The 7th Congressional District is considered by political experts to be the most evenly split House seat in America. In 2003 The GOP controlled state Legislature and the Republican Governor passed a Re-redistricting plan that would shore up this district for Beauprez. This issue is currently being decided by the courts. Update: The courts have thrown out a GOP plan thant would have made this district safely republican. Expect another down to wire election.
Endangered Democratic Incumbents
Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47 53-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:
The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After two close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. Against heavy underdog former Air Force pilot Adam Taff, Rep. Moore won by only 50-47. This moderate suburban Republican district is a misfit for a liberal Democrat like Moore. There have been bitter Republican primaries in the last two elections. They have pitted a moderate, electable Republican against an ideological conservative. In both elections the more conservative was chosen over the moderate. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and nominate a moderate, this could be the year the Republicans defeat Rep. Moore.
Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 50-49 67-31 Bush
Highly Competitive:
In 2000 Rep. Matheson defeated Republican Derek Smith who had upset embattled Republican incumbent Merrill Cook in the Primary.
Republicans radically changed the lines in this district, taking out most of the metro Salt Lake City areas. On the heels of their successful redistricting, Republicans recruited John Swallow to run against Rep. Matheson.
In a race that went down to the wire, Matheson prevailed by 2,015 votes out of 214,961.The Republicans have a strong candidate, I expect this once again to be one of the tightest races in America.
Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshmen
Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush
Highly Competitive:
On November 5th, Lee Fletcher defeated Clyde Holloway 24.5 -23.0 to move on to the run-off. Former frontrunner Holloway was still bitter after his loss. He staged a press conference to bash Fletcher, saying, “He is not what this state needs. ….He will do anything to win and he scares me.” One week before the election, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Lee Fletcher leading Rodney Alexander 48-40. On December 7, Rodney Alexander, in a major upset, defeated Lee Fletcher 50.3 -49.7. The increased black turnout due to Sen. Mary Landrieu close re-election battle may have carried Alexander over the top. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket could make this race too close to call.
Jim Marshall- Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50 51-47 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Despite being outspent 2-1, Marshall eked out a victory over Calder Clay III 50.5 -49.5. This was after Democratic redistricters tried to move as many minority voters into swing districts as possible. This was followed by a surge of outrage from voters. They promptly defeated Governor Roy Barnes, electing the first Republican governor in Georgia in 128 years, unseating Senator Max Cleland. The Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader were both swept away in the GOP tide. They elected Phil Gingery and Max Burns to districts specially redistricted for Democrats. Rep. Marshall was lucky escape the Republican tide that had enveloped so many of the state’s Democrats. Bush narrowly carried this swing district, 51-47. Expect this to be one of the top 10 house races of 2004.
Races to Watch
Earl Pomeroy: Last year he narrowly survived his first close challenge in years. The only congressman in a Republican state, Rep Pomeroy is very vulnerable to a Republican challenge. North Dakota’s all Democratic Delegation will eventually end and Pomeroy could be the first of the Democratic trio to go. In 2000 Bush won 62- 33 this could be an omen that Rep. Pomeroy’s days are numbered.
Ken Lucas: Kentucky’s lone Democrat, Rep. Lucas, keeps Kentucky’s tradition of electing at least one Democrat since 1828 alive. But in a district that voted Bush by an overwhelming margin, 61-37 Rep. Lucas will always have tough fights. This district is so conservative that in 2000 despite outspending his opponent buy more than 9-1 he only won 54-44. Once he retires or is defeated Democrats will be hard pressed to regain this district.
Update: Ken Lucas announced that he will not run for reelection, In a bizarre twist, Nick Clooney, George Clooney’s father announced he will run for Lucas’s seat.
Tim Holden: Republican redistricters eliminated Rep. Holden’s district put him in unknown conservative territory and pitted him against veteran GOP congressman George Gekas. Though Bush won this district by 56-41 this turned out to be a terrible mistake for the Republicans. Gekas had not been in an election battle since he was first elected. Gekas seemed stiff and did not campaign well. While Holden knocked doors and ran a strong and aggressive campaign. Despite the GOP sweep, Holden squeaked through on Election Day, 51-49
Special Elections
Open Seat (KY-6) (R) Rep. Ernie Fletcher was elected governor defeating Attorney General Ben Chandler 55-45. Chandler is expected to run. The special election will be held early next year. Ben Chandler won 55-43.
Democrats gain a seat!
Open Seat (SD-1) (R) Rep. Bill Janklow is facing political oblivion. Democrats pick up will pick up this district if John Thune doesn’t run. Stephanie Herseth is a strong candidate for Democrats.
Update: Janklow has been convicted of manslaughter.
Update 2 : Janklow will resign on January 20, 2004
Update 3 : Special election will be held on June 1,2004
Open Seat (LA-3) (R) Rep. Billy Tauzin will retire for an extremely lucrative lobbying job. This is a prime pickup opportunity, as this is the second most Democratic district in Louisiana.
2004 races
Open Seat (WA-5) (R) Rep. George Nethercutt is leaving his House seat to run against Senator Patty Murray. Democrats have united around Business man Don Barbieri.
Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-1) (R) (State Senate Pro Term Richard Romero is seeking a rematch with Wilson. The threat of New Mexico’s Democratic Legislature Re-redistricting could make Wilson even more vulnerable.
Open Seat (LA-7) (D) Sen. John Breaux will retire after 3 terms in the Senate.
Rep. Chris John willl run for senator. This district went 55 percent for Bush in 2000, but Louisiana usually pick moderate Democrats over conservative Republicans
My Preview of the 2004 Senate
With 2004 Presidential election looming, the Medias interest in Senate elections appears to be waning. Senate is no longer tied and Republicans have a “switch proof majority.” This lack of drama will also make it harder for candidates to fundraise. Normally Senate races are fought on local issues but in 2002 the media reminded voters daily that each seat had a chance do change the out come of the Senate. Moderate Republicans who normally would vote for a Democrat stayed loyal to Bush. Republicans expect to reap the benefits of Bush’s coattails. The states that I predict will have the closest elections are the following, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alaska, Illinois. Three of the closest races are deep in the heart of the south. All three of these are open seats with the Democratic incumbent retiring. Republicans will likely win at least one out these three elections. The remaining 3 Senate seats are in solid Bush states, Oklahoma and Alaska. The final seat is in Illinois where Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring. This seat is in a solidly Democratic state. This is an almost certain pick-up for Democrats.
North Carolina (D): On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
Revised Prediction: Toss up
South Carolina (D): This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint or David Beasley.
My Prediction: Toss up.
Georgia (D): Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
My prediction: Likely GOP pick-up
Oklahoma (R): After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson, a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian, is running to replace Nickles. Mayor Kirk Humphreys is the GOP candidate. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
My Prediction: Toss Up
Alaska (R): In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face not only Knowles but also vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching.
My Prediction: Toss up
Illinois (R): Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
My Prediction: Likely Democratic Pickup
Florida (D): Bob Graham is retiring after a failed run for president. Peter Deutch is favored to win the Democratic nomination. Mel Martinez is the most probable GOP candidate. With a Presidential campaign looming and a weak field of Democrats and Republicans this will be a nightmarishly tight election.
Liberals hate her as much as conservatives hate Sen. Hillary Clinton
My Prediction: Toss Up
Louisiana (D): John Breaux is retiring from the Senate, so he can pursue a lucrative lobbying career. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris John is expected to run. Former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub is also considering a run. On the Republican side, Rep. David Vitter is expected to run. Failed Gubernatorial Candidate Bobby Jindal and Suzie Terrell could also jump in to this race
My Prediction: Toss Up
South Dakota (D): Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the only non-appointed senator any tough race. Former Rep. John Thune (R), the GOP’s strongest possible candidate, is running against Daschle. In 2002, Thune came 524 votes away from defeating Sen. Tim Johnson. Daschle is vulnerable, because he can easily be painted as another “Washington Liberal.” Thune will charge that Sen. Daschle has failed to convince his fellow Democrats to support an ethanol provision in the energy bill. Thune is all aided by the added bonus of being able to run on the same tick as Bush.
My Prediction: Slightly leans GOP
States that might have competitive races: Pennsylvania, Washington, California,
Any thoughts?
My full analysis is at my website:
http://aliberalmajority.blogspot.com/
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