This FMA talk is all for naught

[RichV]

It'll never pass Congress. I don't have a good feel for whether 2/3 of the House is attainable, but no way 2/3 of the Senate votes for the amendment. They'd need 67 yeas. It is easy to imagine 5 or more GOPers voting against it (McCain, Chafee, Snowe, Collins, Specter, maybe others) and I can't see 20 Dems voting for it. Even those who voted for DoMA don't seem likely to me to want this raised to constitutional status.

Whether enough states would approve it is questionable too, but this will not get out of Congress. However, any vote on this WILL be ripe for use in TV ads to excite the right-wing base to turn out while they've been disenchanted as of late.

Yeah, this is all speculative. I'm just frustrated watching all this coverage on TV and not seeing anybody really talking about these details. They just keep quoting poll numbers and pulling Marilyn Musgrave and Jerry Falwell out to talk. Bah.

[nostamj]

1. not for naught, really

it has achieved the desired effect.

it has tossed EVERY other issue aside.

it's pure DISTRACTION. you'll probably never hear * mention it again. he knows it won't get out of congress...

[sadiesworld]

2. "it has tossed EVERY other issue aside"

Exactly. What happened to AWOL, phony job numbers, burger assembly plants, etc.

[RichV]

3. Good point

Regarding changing agenda.

I hope history judges him harshly.

[sybylla]

4. Yeah, and even if it did get passed could it stand constitutional muster.

No constitutional amendment can fix and unconstutional bias. This country has passed amendments before that were later found unconstitutional. It just may be that all this energy, all this devisiveness, all this fingerpointing and homophobia will go no where.

on edit: except to distract, as previously stated.

[Silverhair]

6. Please inform me of what amendments have been found to be

unconstitutional. I am not aware of a single amendment that any court has removed from the constitution.

One amendment has been repealed, but even that took another amendment to do that.

[outinforce]

7. We Have?

"This country has passed amendments before that were later found unconstitutional."

Really?

Perhapas you would care to share with us which Constitutional Amendments this country passed that were later found to be unconstitional.

Thanks in advance.

[Cooley Hurd]

8. Volstead Act?

[Silverhair]

9. An act is not an amendment. n/t

[Cooley Hurd]

10. I'm sorry, the 18th Amendment...

[Silverhair]

11. Nope. Try again.

The 18th was ratified, and then vigorously enforced. It was not thrown out by any court. It was later repealed by the 21st amendment.

Get the idea? It took ANOTHER constitutional amendment to get rid of a constitutional emendment. NOT a court. NO COURT HAS THE POWER TO OVERTURN A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

[Cooley Hurd]

17. Okeydoke...

:)

[Silverhair]

5. Never pass congress? The same way the federal DOMA didn't pass congress?

It passed the house 342 to 67 and the senate 85 to 14. and 39 states already have DOMAs, so one would think that they would quickly ratify the FMA.

And the Reps control ALL the committees. Don't look for it to die in committee.

Don't look to the courts for help. They can't act on proposed legislation, as proposed legislation has no standing until it is enacted. Until it is ratified it has not standing as it is only a proposal. Once ratified it becomes part of the consitution and you can't declare part of the constitution to be unconstitutional. The FMA will then outrank ALL courts.

We are going to get flattened by this.

[nostamj]

13. an amendment is MUCH different than an 'act'

and this amendment will NOT get out of Congress.

it was DISTRACTION and it worked brilliantly.

when it fails to get out of Congress, the pantload will shrug and say: well, I tried but those Dems in the congress......

[Silverhair]

15. The huge marginethat the DOMA passed by shows the

way congress looks at the issue, and it ain't good for our side.

Also, the Reps didn't invent the issue. The gays put it on the national radar screen themselves with the MA court case and the SF marriages. The Reps are simply taking advantage of a gigantic political gift.

[yellowcanine]

16. Can't compare to DOMA passage

The DOMA is in itself an argument against an amendment. It has never been tested by the courts, so why is an amendment needed? There are a number of Republicans who are not on board on this, including Tom Delay. We are not going to get flattened by this. I doubt there will even be a vote this year and I am not convinced there will even be a majority in favor, let alone 2/3 in each chamber. There is also a great deal of discussion about how the amendment should be worded. The fundamentalists want it to exclude civil unions and will be satisfied with nothing less. Bush and most others don't want to exclude civil unions. If the amendment is too weak (allowing civil unions), some conservative Republicans could actually oppose it. Bush doesn't know what he has done. This is going to come back and bite him.

[Silverhair]

18. I guess we will just have to wait and see whose prediction turns out

to be correct.

[distortionmarshall]

20. excellent response......

pretty much all comentators i've seen agree that republicans stand to lose a lot more than democrats - essentially because bush is "outing" them on their homohatred....

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/ - marshall gives a typical discussion, with links...

[truth2power]

12. A question.

If a proposed amendment passes congress, do the citizens of each state get to vote yea or nay on it? Or does the state legislature just make a decision? I can't remember the process with the ERA.

thanks.

[Silverhair]

14. State legislature votes. n/t

[distortionmarshall]

19. this was posted yesterday.......

http://www.usconstitution.net/constam.html

there's the process..... hth...

[truth2power]

21. Thanks.

Bookmarked this to read later. There was another thread yesterday that mentioned "legislature". That's why I asked.

Given the above, now I'm really concerned. Ohio's legislature is mostly troglodytes. Yikes!!

edit: typos