What will happen in the Senate this November?

[Timefortruth]

There are some sleepers for us, Oklahoma may be one. Anyone ready to make some predictions?

[mopinko]

1. illinois

has a great chance to pick up a second dem senator.

[jbfam4]

4. Illinois is in for a

bumpy ride with Hull's divorce records just published.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-hull28.html


Hull's stormy divorce records unsealed
February 28, 2004

BY FRANK MAIN Crime Reporter

[Padraig18]

7. IL is a no-brainer.

The nominee will be Obama or Hynes, not Hull. Chalk this seat up as a '+1' for us in November.

[Donkeyboy75]

18. We'll work for it here.

But is should be easy. With former Repuke governor indicted on bribery charges, there is a TON of anti-Repub sentiment here, and it isn't just confined to Chicago.

[Nailzberg]

27. Hynes? Stick a fork in him!

Hynes has been moving downhill steadily since day one. He was banking on name recognition, but his campaign is lacking a message.

The race is really between Hull and Obama. And that makes me a happy democrat, cause Dan Hynes is a darn good comptroller, but I'm not so sure he is innovated enough to be my Senator.
His campaign has been very bad at getting me any policy ideas, leading me to believe he doesn't have any. Ask him any question about any issue, and he stumps into his "detailed job's plan" and "Made in America tax credits" speech. I e-mailed his campaign to request a copy of his detailed jobs plan, and got a link to his homepage. His website told me that he had a detailed jobs plan. Like that one episode of the West Wing, it must be a "secret plan" cause I called them just in case they didn't understand I wanted to see an actual policy proposal, but that was all they could offer me.

And I wouldn't chalk up the win yet. Jack Ryan has good appeal with independents. And the collar counties are siphoning the political power from Cook. The former Governor's problems won't rub off on Jack Ryan the same way it hurt Jim Ryan. Jim Ryan didn't do a good job of image building, but Jack's team has viewed the mistakes made by Jim Ryan, and that gives them the ability to work around his name. He's pretty much got his primary race in his hands, but he is relentless, and continues to attract independents. Frankly, I'm scared of him, Ryan will make this a battle.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Let's hope the Dems get the Senate back.

At least with A Democratic President And a Democratic Senate, things would be very much improved.

[IronLionZion]

3. will a Dem take Kerry's seat?

how does that work?

[carpetbagger]

6. Governor (R) appoints until 2006.

Then there's a special election in 2006 for the remainder of Kerry's term (2002-8), and a regular election in 2008.

So the answer is Kerry's seat would go to a republican for two years, then almost certainly to a democrat.

[mopinko]

10. Governor (R)

raving loonie, bushite r, or old fashioned, sane,. respectful, don't want to diss the people r?

[Vas Liz]

24. Could he be recalled?

Could the repub the gov appoints be recalled by a citzen led initiative? And if so, would that prompt more immediate elections?

[Toronto Ron]

5. I predict:

The Democrats will lose seats in GA and FL, but gain in IL, AK, and a surprise somewhere else (OK? CO? PA?).

[IronLionZion]

13. I really hope Joe Hoeffel wins in PA

Specter's not polling well these days.

[Florida_Geek]

26. I say Florida will not go Repug for Senator

The Repugs have some truly right wing wack jobs running. I believe Betty Castor with a strong educational background will be the Dems selection. I believe Betty will win.

[Timefortruth]

8. How about North Carolina and Georgia?

Any hope there to retain?

[Toronto Ron]

15. Bowles looks good in NC

but I think the GA seat is a lost cause.

[RichV]

25. Even beyond our Southern struggles

we can thank Zell Miller for helping expedite the delivery of his seat into Republican hands.

[spotbird]

28. Zell is a Republican,

in every respect. Why he claimed to be a Democrat is beyond me.

[pacifictiger]

9. Dean already has

his eye on the prize. Once again he is ahead of the curve working to jump start state by state grass roots dem support. I'm sure more about this will be announced in another couple of weeks.

[mopinko]

11. yeeeaaarrrggghhhh! np

[IronLionZion]

12. YOU have the power to take our country back!

[mopinko]

14. yup

not takin off my buttons, not takin down my window signs, not takin off my bumper sticker. the fight goes on.

[mot78]

16. Here are my predictions:

We'll pick up Il PA and AK, and we'll possibly retain FL and NC, but I'm doubting Florida. If Edwards is on the ticket, Bowles will be able to grab onto POTUS coattails that other Southern Democrats can't grab onto. We may break even if we're lucky.

[eyeontheprize]

17. Fla. will be the state with most fraud and civil rights violations

which make it even harder. Also they are brain dead down there, JEB was reelected in '2.

[mndemocrat_29]

19. My thoughts

Illinois-With Hull's divorce papers out, I'm betting he loses enough support that Dan Hynes wins the nomination. I think that Hynes would be the best Senate candidate anyway (he's already won to be in his current State Comptroller position) and will beat Jack Ryan. (Dem +1)

Alaska-Due to the way she entered office and her father's continuing unpopularity, Lisa Murkowski is vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger. Gov. Tony Knowles is that challenger-Alaska will elect its first Democratic senator since Maurice Gravel (Dem +1)

Georgia-Though it's not much of a loss (Zell will be leaving the Senate), we are almost certainly going to lose this seat. State Sen. Mary Squires is certainly a fine candidate, but is too liberal for Georgia (perhaps she's positioning herself for a future House run?) It is unfortunate that Max Cleland didn't run again, since he would've had not only a built-in base, but a reenergized Democratic Party after the 2002 election. (GOP +1)

Louisiana-Chris John and John Kennedy are duking it out for the second place finish in the initial election, both fighting to take on David Vitter in the runoff. With a newly elected Democratic governor and a reelected Democratic senator, John Breaux will certainly help to secure another Democrat replaces him (probably John) (Dem Hold)

Florida-Almost entirely depends on how the presidential race is going in this state. Betty Castor will probably be the Democratic nominee and Mel Martinez will probably be the Republican nominee (there is a chance that either of them will be beat in the primary, but let's just assume). Martinez will be a direct link to Bush, and expect whoever wins Florida to take this seat. Since I'm being slightly optimistic, I'm going to hope that the Democrats win the state and keep this seat. (Dem Hold)

South Carolina-I'm not ready to concede this seat yet. Sen. Hollings is retiring and has THE best Democratic challenger imaginable for this seat (State Supt. Inez Tenenbaum, the top vote getter in 2002). A bloody Republican primary is going to occur (between Gov. Beasley and Rep. DeMint), and either one could make it to the general. Both are flawed candidates, with DeMint about as interesting as a paperweight and Beasley a statewide loser (lost in 1998 to For. Gov. Hodges). I really feel that Inez will take this one, but it could very easily turn the other way. This will depend a little on national politics, but not much. Inez would do well to run on more local issues. (I'm feeling lucky today, Dem Hold)

Oklahoma-This looked to be a race between Mayor Kirk Humphreys and Rep. Brad Carson, but then For. Rep. Tom Coburn is now considering jumping into the race. Coburn is a better candidate then Humphreys (typically mayors, have a difficult time statewide), since he has the same base as Carson, OK-2 (which will have to come out big for Carson in order for him to win). However, with Dan Boren running to replace Carson in what looks to be a lock for the Democrats, Carson should still be able to take this (he's also a terrific campaigner, which always helps) (Dem +1)

South Dakota-Daschle will certainly have a close race on his hands, but I doubt that John Thune will be able to pull this off a second time around, particularly with Stephanie Herseth likely to be in the House by then and all of the bad press about Janklow. (Dem Hold)

Pennsylvania-The primary will be a tricky thing. If Toomey wins, this most certainly will go to Hoeffel. However, if Specter is constantly attacked by Toomey for being too liberal, then wins the primary, it will be difficult to pull this off in the general election. If Hoeffel wants to run a smart campaign, he'll link Specter to Bush, who won't win Pennsylvania, and try to win down-the-ballot support. (GOP Hold, for now)

Massachusetts-Hopefully John Kerry will also be pulling off a big victory on election night, which will mean that Gov. Romney will appoint a replacement senator (likely For. Gov. Paul Cellucci), and we'll be gearing up for the Massachusetts 2006 race. (GOP +1)

And that leaves the Senate 50-50, in favor of the Democrats.

[Timefortruth]

21. Great analysis, what do you think of Oklahoma?

The seat is open, Nickels is retiring. Carson is ahead, Kirk Humphries doesn't have a statewide name as mayor of Oklahoma City.

It could be a flip to the Democrats, but Carson isn't going to do much for the Democrats but caucus with them. He is very conservative.

[jsw_81]

20. Who knows?

I'd like to think that we'd regain the majority, but that's going to be tough now that there are five open seats in the south.

[zonmoy]

22. Had to vote for dems losing seats

since the election will be rigged by diebold.

[Vas Liz]

23. I think there is no question we will lose more than 2 seats

Dems are focusing on the white house FAR too much IMO. We should be working to get back the senate (and hell, even the house despite the odds). Instead, it seems the vast majority of resources are being devoted to the pres race. The repubs have the resources to make a major effort for both the congress AND the white house.

Just the lack of ability/action in regards to the senate assures we will loose over 2 seats unfortunately. I think we may even be looking at around 6.