Some fuel for the bin Laden October surprise theory

[I_like_chicken]

http://nytimes.com/2004/02/29/international/worldspecial2/29OSAM.html?hp

<snip>
President Bush has approved a plan to intensify the effort to capture or kill Osama bin Laden, senior administration and military officials say, as a combination of better intelligence, improving weather and a refocusing of resources away from Iraq has reinvigorated the hunt along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The plan will apply both new forces and new tactics to the task, said senior officials in Washington and Afghanistan who were interviewed in recent days. The group at the center of the effort is Task Force 121, the covert commando team of Special Operations forces and Central Intelligence Agency officers. The team was involved in Saddam Hussein's capture and is gradually shifting its forces to Afghanistan to step up the search for Mr. bin Laden and Mullah Muhammad Omar, the former Taliban leader.
<snip>

"As we speak, night has settled on the mountains of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan," Mr. Kerry said in California. "If Osama bin Laden is sleeping, it is the restless slumber of someone who knows his days are numbered. I don't know if the latest reports — saying that he is surrounded — are true or not. We've heard this news before."

Mr. Kerry said, "We had him in our grasp more than two years ago at Tora Bora, but George Bush held U.S. forces back and instead, called on Afghan warlords with no loyalty to our cause to finish the job."

Mr. Kerry's aides contended that Mr. Bush's new strategy was a tacit admission of past failures and said the White House had criticized Mr. Kerry for questioning its earlier strategy.
<snip>


hmmm... tacit admission or planned political strategy??

[barbaraann]

1. Bush will probably "parachute" into Pakistan

to personally thank the soldiers who "catch" OBL. That way he can pull off another codpiece photo op and continue in his apparent quest to prove he's more of a man than his father and Bill Clinton.

[still_one]

4. No,

I think the altitude is to high for him

[EstimatedProphet]

2. Do we have any editorial writers on DU?

IT would be nice to have a prediction that Bush will have suddenly had OBL captured around mid-October, just in time for the election, as an editorial in print in a major newspaper. That would head things off nicely.

[masshole]

3. looks like the suprise will be sooner

than October.
falling ratings = quicker surprise.

[Syncronaut Seven]

5. According to NPR today

The Iranian government is claiming that we caught OBL months ago on the Afgan/Paki border & we're just sitting on him.

[plumbnsquare]

7. Iran

Yes, the reigning Mullahs are indeed a very reliable source of information! NOT!!!

[Sinistrous]

6. All these leaks, reports, "denials", etc. are just the teasers

to get the masses all jugged up for the day bush decides to announce the Great OBL Capture Caper.

We are being massaged. Again.

[_Jumper_]

8. Summer surprise

An October Surprise would be too obvious.

[rustydog]

9. If they have him,

Bush will try to smuggle him into a hidey-hole somewhere in Iraq to prove his SOTU claim of alQaeda ties.


Can you picture this: bush has a low-key press conference sometime this Fall. Rumsfeld or Cheny approaches, whispers in his ear and Bush announces", with a surprised look..."We have captured Osama.