All these Bin Laden reports...

[Teaser]

I've been thinking. I don't particularly believe Bin Laden's been captured, is near capture, or is even alive.

But one wonders why all these reports. And why every weekend?

Look at where these reports are coming from and are being heard. The latest one is one a minor Pashtun radio station in an Iranian province. The people there are largely Pashtun, and maintain some ethnic and religious ties with Pahtuns in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Why the weekend? It is the beginning of the Islamic week. The holy day is friday, and these always emerge saturday/sunday, the days when people resume their workaday lives and pay more attention to their media (in these countries).

It seems likely to me that this report, and all the others are disinformation, but not disinfo for our benefit. Our leaders hope the disinfo is broadcast into the afghanistan/pak hinterlands It is disinfo designed to make the leaders of Al Qaeda in Pak and Afghanistan (who find most of their support in Pashtun communities) feel increasingly isolated. Perhaps even to cause them to slip up and reveal themselves, or to move from a secure location to a less secure one. If bin Laden is alive, the reports might encourage him to produce a videotape that would generate valuable clues as to his whereabouts.

and if he's not alive, as I suspect, these reports would still serve to dishearten and frighten the Al Qaeda grunts, most of whom are being led to believe Osama is alive and free by higher-ups.

I have no proof for this theory, but the following report is informative. The article in last week's Sunday Express that reported "bin Laden surrounded!" Remember that? Well it is being widely discussed on Afghan radio, exactly where one would want such disinfo to be heard...

I could be quite wrong about this, but it's an interesting hypothesis.

[mr_hat]

1. FWIW, Saddam was "captured" on a Sunday morning...

[mr_hat]

2. Beg pardon: Was reported "captured" Sun am.

[still_one]

3. They better get him

otherwise this is just an election ploy!

[Kimber Scott]

4. My theory is...

Bin Laden is alive and the administration knows exactly where he is. That's why they can so quickly deny he has been captured anywhere. They will drag him out right before the election. Then for the ultimate in photo-ops, maybe, Bush will go over and personally check him for lice.

[izzie]

10. I think that is what happen with Saddam also.

so there.

[Crasher]

5. ...

I haven't heard much of these reports, but I think Bin Laden is nestled up somewhere waiting or October/November to roll around before being paraded to the masses.

EDIT
Damnit Kimber. lol Exactly what I was saying. No replies when I start and 4 when I hit Post.

[madrchsod]

6. this broke open two weeks ago

when a german news team went into afghanistan and fimed their way closer than anyone has gotten to bin boy in the last two years. the whitehouse had to respond but has done it thru other channels. it really doesn`t matter if bin boy is caught the terror strikes will continue,he`s just a another player in the muslim brotherhood.

[cosmicdot]

7. my concern is what the BFEE has up its sleeve if ...

... if OBL is alive ... and, they stage things for *'s rating pull ... but, it doesn't produce the desired results ...

[still_one]

8. If they knew where he was now

they would go in and get him

It is not worth the risk to wait, a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the "BUSH"

On the other hand, from everything I understand about bin Laden, he will not be taken alive, and has given orders to have his associates kill him if it looks like capture is certain, and destroy the remains so the west will not be able to say for sure if he is still around.

The al kaeda are not like Sadam, they WILL give their lives

I would be very surprised if he is captured, killed yes, but not captured alive, more like Sadam's sons

[reprehensor]

9. They already have him.

Or they wouldn't bother with all this crap. It's good news, but it won't save the Shrub from bushwacking back in Crawford where his retarded ass won't bother anyone except his neighbours.

Gotta Love the Shrub's top TWO priorites this week, an anti-gay marriage amendment, and waxing nostalgic about the capture of someone they already have.

IMO