I REALLY like our chances electorally

[Hippo_Tron]

Here's how I see it. The eventual nominee will take all of the Gore states except maybe Pennsylvania. Add to that New Hampshire. Then there's Louisiana, Florida, and North Carolina. Louisiana's state officials are all Democrats except the Secretary of State, both houses of the legislature are Democratic, and we have two Democratic US Senators. Florida is really a tossup, but, I don't see how it could have become any more of a Republican state in the past three years. In addition, I think Nader will not be as popular this time around. North Carolina will be ours if Edwards is the nominee and we will have a good shot at it if he is VP. Then there's Ohio, where Clinton won re-election by 6%. It's definately a swing state where people will think twice before voting for chimpy again, and it has 21 electoral votes. Finally, the midwest. Bush's economic policies have really fucked over a lot of workers in the midwest and some of those states might just go to the eventual nominee. As far as I'm concerned 9/11 mean's nothing now, people are beginning to see how bad Bush really is. Basically, this election is ours to loose.

[rockymountaindem]

1. Don't forget West Virginia.

[displacedvermoter]

2. I think if we lose Pennsylvania, we lose the whole thing, but,,,

But I think PA will be a keep. I'd feel real good if Bush is completely shut out between Maine and West Virginia (keeping PA, and retaking West Va, plus a NH win). If that is the case, I think it will be a good night.

[coloradodem2005]

3. We will hold on to Pennsylvania.

They were affected by tarriffs lifted and the steel industry is hurting. We should be able to hold Pennsylvania, gain Ohio, and West Virginia.

[rockymountaindem]

5. What about middle Penn. though?

They are fans of the "family values" movement and hate gun control. If we're going to win PA it'll have to come from Philly and Pittsburgh. Too bad Mr. Rogers can't campaign for us in Pittsburgh.

[IronLionZion]

34. PA could go either way

We've lost like 200,000 jobs or so. and there's always rampant election fraud in favor of the Democrats.

[Thrill]

4. I don't think

Bush has a chance at any Blue state. I just don't think he has done anything to sway voters. I think he has done a good job alienating people. Kerry has a shot a FL, NH, WV, OH, and I seriously think VA is in play this time.

[Thrill]

7. I really miss the elections of Clinton

when we could carry LA and ARK

[AngryYoungMan]

6. Diebold

eom

[Thucydides]

20. Thats my fear as well! N/T

[papau]

8. CNN's Blitzer explains Tora Bora was mostly not Bush, CNBC Russert

has a group that says Kerry is not loved - just the fellow folks say "OK" to, and that Kerry's speech pattern annoys, and that Kerry has no issues that will win the General Election because the ONLY issue that will win the General is the Economy - and Edwards owns that issue and indeed Edwards connects to workers while Kerry does not.

That Kerry - or Edwards - are wimps asking for legal permission to defend the US, while Bush sees the bad guy and stops him - you are either with my approach or not - and if you feel wimpy go vote for Kerry

That Kerry is on both sides of every issue - and that the average voter feels that both Dem and GOP are evil and on the take, so any corruption charge against Bush will not stick.

But they had no response to the Bush is inept - and has messed up the economy and jobs.

So I came away thinking - yep - the Dems - Kerry - will win in the fall!

[lastknowngood]

9. We will win NO southern states with our canidate we will

lose in my opnion 48 states. He might get N.Y. and Mass.

[rockymountaindem]

10. WTF?

[wuushew]

12. That is an unsupportable statement

Everybody who showed up at the primaries is just going to sit on their asses?

[coloradodem2005]

14. We will not lose 48 states.

This is a referendum on Bush's presidency. I think that it looks worse for Bush all the time.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

27. Excuse me?

:wtf: are you smoking?

[Kolesar]

11. don't bet on VP-candidate Edwards winning NC--Gore lost Tennessee

Florida is going to be tough for the good guys because Jeb-the-election-stealer & his scheming band of dynasty builders are still there.

[Hippo_Tron]

30. Gore ran an aweful campaign, hopefully we won't make that mistake...

Plus he hadn't served the people of Tennessee for eight years. Not to mention the fact that in that time, the state managed to become somewhat more Republican.

[childslibrarian]

13. Pennsylvania will be Democratic

Rendell is a popular governor..and we really dislike the shrub....
We'll get the vote out...that's how it was won last time.

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Pennsylvania confuses the hell out of me cause of Dick Santorum

This guy is a completely partisan Republican, not a thing moderate about him, from a democratic leaning state. Arlen Specter makes sense because he's a centrist Republican with a lot of seniority. Why is ass-hole Santorum in the US senate anyway?

[IronLionZion]

35. Hopefully Joe Hoeffel will take Specter's spot

yes the two right wing senators are baffling but PA is generally a moderate state. We need to campaign hard over here.

[AlinPA]

15. We can take PA if Cheney is on the ticket. If not, I doubt it.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

16. Arkansas

people are hurting in Arkansas, and they are riled up. Bet that this is a blue state in November

[salinen]

17. How many people who voted for Gore

& Nader will vote chimp this time? I haven't met any.

[BillZBubb]

23. I've met a few.

They claim that they didn't vote for the Chimpster. But, I really have no way of being sure if that is so. They say his job "performance" after 9-11 shows he's the guy we need in office to fight terrorism.

Hopefully, they'll wake up before Nov.

[jsw_81]

18. We aren't going to take Louisiana unless it's Kerry/Landrieu

And there's no way we can win without Pennsylvania. To win, we need the Gore states plus New Hampshire and Arizona or Florida.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. How do you figure?

Democrats have been winning in Louisiana for the past two years. Turnout was very good for the governors' race, especially amongst minorities. I say there's a good chance that we get LA.

[fujiyama]

39. Remember though...

that the recently elected governor of LA is quite conservative. There weren't really that many issues that her and Jindal disagreed on.

[BillZBubb]

19. Chimpy has a lock on about 2/3 of the needed electors

This is going to be a tight race. I see Chimpster owning:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

That means he only has to pick up another 100 electoral votes to actually win. I think he gets Florida, too, but it's not a sure thing. Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio and several other close states could put him over the top.

[Langis]

21. I'm sorry but AZ is not a lock for Bush

We have a democrat for governer, and recent polls show Bush losing to both Kerry and Edwards.

[BillZBubb]

22. Wow, I hope you are right.

To me it's still a solid Repug state in national elections. We'll see in Nov.

[Zynx]

24. How is it a solid state for Bush electorally?

He only got 51% of the vote there. He did better in WV.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. But with all of the Gore states we have 260 already...

Add Louisiana we tie. New Hampshire + WV, we tie. Louisiana and New Hampshire we win. Louisiana + Arkansas, we win. Ohio, we win. Florida, we win. Bush may seem like he has the advantage but that's because he wins most of the states that have 3 or 4 electoral votes. Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada are also possibilities, but less likely than the others.

[TruthIsAll]

37. AZ, CO, TN could go Dem n/t

.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

25. "Two 'Little' States, or One 'Big' State

Check the map/calculator:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc.php?year=2004

Based on 2000 breakdown, we have an 18 vote deficit (due to the change in demographics). Meaning a 10 vote swing does it.

"One Big State":

-OH, OH, OH!!
-FLA, FLA, FLA
-AZ
-VA
-TN, Missouri, Indiana

"Borderline"

-LA
-SC
-CO

"Little States":

-WVA
-NV
-ARK
-KY
-NH

Of course, there could be some shifting the other way as well, so we have to go after every state with a passion and go for as big a landslide as possible.

But I see plenty of possibility here. Many of the states I've listed here are really in play. Check the site linked above, fun to play with the possibilities.

[Zynx]

26. Kentucky is not a close state for us.

We will lose it badly unless we win the country by over 10 pts. It voted for Bush by the same margin as Mississippi.

[BlueCollar]

32. Whatever you're smoking/ingesting

Do it while you can. I fully intend to pull the lever for the Dems, but having watched the Coup d'etat take place I fear we will be lost. Hopefully the Dems will get it right this summer

[Blue-Jay]

33. I think Ohio is going to deliver big.

I know literally dozens of people who sat out in 2000, but are now determined to show up this November and vote Democratic. Dozens! And this is just from casually chatting with people at work, etc. Additionally, I'm aware of many others who voted Republican, but will either vote Democratic this year or stay home out of disgust for Bushco.

Barring Diebold shenanighans, I feel good about Ohio swinging our direction. Even my Republican Representitive, Merle Grace Kearns, is supporting a house bill to demand a verifiable, auditible paper trail on the voting machines. Sen Austria, has promptly thanked me for all my letters to him regarding this, but has chickened out of actually divuldging his stance on the issue, despite my many requests. Rep Widener (R) has yet to respond. I'll be sure to make his and Austria's inaction known to as many as possible this year. If I can have anything to do with it, there will be a reckoning for these two cowards. Rep Kearns gets a pass from me. (Maybe not a vote, but I won't campaign against her)

[TruthIsAll]

36. Almost there.

We win PA and FL again.

And we win some states we lost: MO, OH, AK, AZ, NV, WV, NH

As for NC: maybe, if Edwards is VP.
LA? not likely, but its possible.

Your right: this election is ours to LOSE.

[strategery blunder]

38. We also have a shot at MO

where in 2000, Gore Bush won by about 3.3% (Nader got 1.6%). It will be close, but I think we can do it.

Assuming dems win all states Gore wone in 2000+MO, we win the election! :D

EDIT: Bush got 50.4%, Gore 47.1%