If the job gains continue month after month, is Kerry dead in the water?

[ringmastery]

308,000 new jobs created last month looks great for Bush.

And I have a feeling the job gains will continue at this level for the rest of the year (whether true or manipulated by the Bush admin).

Either way, all the media will report is Bush is creating jobs, jobs, jobs, like crazy.

How do we compete against his $200 million AND him creating all these jobs?

[Auntie Bush]

1. "No", Bush will take himself down with all the investigations & lies.

[keithyboy]

2. First subtract the numbers of newly unemployed.

And if you believe those numbers you're dead in the water, not Kerry.

[Qutzupalotl]

3. Point out his lack of trustworthiness.

600 soldiers would be alive today if he hadn't said things like this:

"The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa."
Source: President Delivers "State of the Union", White House (1/28/2003).

"He said he wouldn't have chemical weapons, he's got them."
Source: Remarks by the President at Missouri Welcome, White House (11/4/2002).

"The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons."
Source: George W. Bush Delivers Weekly Radio Address, White House (9/28/2002).
Source: President Bush Discusses Iraq with Congressional Leaders, White House (9/26/2002).

"Iraq has made several attempts to buy high-strength aluminum tubes used to enrich uranium for a nuclear weapon."
Source: Address to the United Nations General Assembly, White House (9/12/2002). This statement was misleading because it suggested that Iraq sought aluminum tubes for use in its nuclear weapons program, failing to mention that the government’s most experienced technical experts at the U.S. Department of Energy concluded that the tubes were "poorly suited" for this purpose.

"We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories. You remember when Colin Powell stood up in front of the world, and he said, Iraq has got laboratories, mobile labs to build biological weapons. They're illegal. They're against the United Nations resolutions, and we've so far discovered two. And we'll find more weapons as time goes on. But for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them."
Source: Interview of the President by TVP, Poland, White House (5/29/2003).

[displacedtexan]

4. Even if true, this is job "restoration" not job "gains."

Bush* has almost 3 million jobs to restore before he can claim any success in creating jobs.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Ding! Ding! Ding!

diplacedtexan has, indeed, gotten the correct answer.

Also, since this number isn't even enough to cover the growth of the workforce (the difference between retirees and newly entering workers), it's not job growth at all.

It really is merely a reduction in the serverity of a bad macroeconomic situation.
The Professor

[Luvpurp]

5. Its the media we have to worry about

I wouldn't be too concerned about these numbers continuing month after month. Remember that 250000 is the break even point and if you take away the California grocery workers and the increase due to seasonal changes you essentially are at the break even point again. The problem is the "liberal" media will trumpet the wonder boy's job creating prowess for days. I gurantee you that tonight that the first 10 minutes of the national newscasts will be devoted to this number. The good news is that within a couple of weeks the truth about these numbers will come out, of course it won't be mentioned by the "liberal" media except in passing.

[tandot]

6. F*ing CNN forgot to tell the whole truth

"US Job growth soars" further down, barely mentioned, they point out that unemployment rose.

CNN & Fox do not differ anymore.

[daa]

7. Do you really

believe those numbers? Six months from election time is the standard necessity to show job growth. If Bush manipulated the CIA and FBI reports, lied about WMD, covered up the prescription drug costs, why wouldn't the Bush BLS and Mrs. Senator Mitch, I mean the labor secretary be complicit and threaten to fire another clerk?

Tomorrow when people begin to look behind the numbers they will be as phony as can be. Isn't it convenient that when Bush is getting hammered on jobs that IBM and that outsourcing group says how great off-shoring is and the jobs number just happens to be 3 times the consensus?

[ochazuke]

9. Worse, he's sunk.

You've got to face the truth here. An incumbant president will probably get re-elected if the economy has been improving during the months leading up to the election.

It's hard to say what will happen this time, but even all the scandalous things shrub is doing won't be enough to offset a positive economy.

It could be like Nixon in '72. Anyone for Nixon in '74?

[callous taoboy]

11. This is

what Will Pitt is saying he actually hopes will happen: Re-selection and then incarceration when Dems get the majority in Congress.

[KittyWampus]

27. Will Pitt Said That?

Really?

[callous taoboy]

10. Look,

* can manipulate numbers, CNN can screw with us via numbers, but a jobless person is still a jobless person and he/she will still be pissed come November.

[caledesi]

12. 308,00 new jobs in one month created?

Ahem...these aren't "production" (McDonalds) jobs are they? "You want fries with that?"

[Broadslidin]

16. Yes, Restaurants are hiring Busboys and Waiters, even wal-mart is.......

Even wal-mart is rethinking their policy of
hiring illegal aliens to clean their store floors.

[NuttyFluffers]

26. maybe they're gov't jobs like last report....

it's too premature to tout anything about this report. we need to have it read and find out how they are coming up to these numbers.

if it really is new, good, private, living wage jobs i would be very happy, surprised, but very happy. it'd mean less suffering, and that's something i'm for, despite personal politics.

but i'm deeply suspicious. i want the report to be given a thorough review before anything is concluded.

[salvorhardin]

13. These are not *real* jobs

They're service sector jobs and primarily a result of the tourism industry scaling up for summer. Bush did not create them.

Huh... I just tried to pull up data at http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm to prove my point, but no matter what statistics I try to retrieve, I keep getting this message:


Notice
Friday, April 2, 2004 11:47 AM
Sorry, survey does not exist. Please contact the data specialist listed below if you have any questions.


What's going on here?

edited: forgot URL to Bureau of Labor Statistics

[Streetdoc270]

17. If I remember right....

Wasen't the Jan job 'boost' all government jobs? no added private sector/manufactoring/tech jobs?

[On the Road]

14. 300,000 is OK

If every month until November is like that, Bush will have a better chance. Even if the 3 million jobs haven't been restored, voters will see things as moving in the right direction.

Talking about discouraged job seekers, part-time employment, and McJobs is a more complicated issue and a harder sell. Kerry can do it, but his political team has to think hard about how to condense it into a soundbite.

As far as distorting the numbers, aren't there independent estimates? I mean, stock analysts and businesses need the real numbers to make decisions. Any discrepancies should be highlighted -- like the huge gulf between government and private estimates of the producer price index.


Personally, I think the stock marker will tank, inflation will heat up and the economy will cool again by November. Hope that's not wishful thinking.

[Joanne98]

15. 300,00 jobs created 300,00 jobs lost this week net gain zero

That's not counting the long-term unemployed. Also what kind of jobs were created. Ohio lost high-paying manufactors jobs replaced with what part-time or Wal Mart? Of course the "librul" media is hailing this HUGH job growth as the greastest thing since sliced bread. All the numbers are phoney at this point. That damn Elaine Chao (labor dept) is cooking the books. CNN needs e-mail saying, STOP LYING ABOUT THE JOB GROWTH NUMBERS

[tandot]

21. I emailed them just a while ago when I read the headline

I just can't stand it anymore. I have to do something.

I asked them why they are ignoring any news critical of the Bush administration, and if they are now following White House policy by reporting only good news and disregarding bad news.

[oc2002]

18. These numbers mean jack if you lost your job and still looking or..

..found a job that pays far less than what you where making...

[Warren Stuart]

19. Maybe, if those are in fact real numbers

If the number of jobs went up, then how come the number of hours worked went down?

Factor out the seasonal workers, service area jobs and consider the unemployment rate went up and you still have a dismal picture.

No one that I know of is chirping about how great the economy is doing.

But more importantly, why would we want to root for bad economic news?

[bushiehater]

20. These jobs are of

the burger-flipping variety. Kerry needs to point out that the people who are losing their jobs are white collar workers. Bushie still hasn't provided for them. Grrrrrrrr.

[tom_paine]

22. No, first of all Bushevik Pravda is all lies

More and more people are waking to how grotesquely Orwellian and Soviet the Busheviks are.

So at best this is only half or quarter true, like Burger Flippers as Manufacturers and other Bushevik Soviet-style trickery.

Second, I am still guessing, maybe hoping, that reality has enough of an impact on people's lives that they see through it. Many already do and, just like the Soviets, the Busheviks can;t hide their own "6 Hours Lines for Toilet Paper" a secret or bame it on the lies of jealous enemies any longer.

[redqueen]

23. Stop overreacting

It's great that new jobs were added. However they always 'correct' these numbers later in the month. Watch for that.

Also, this would have to keep up for *seven months straight* in order for it to have any impact whatsoever.

Also also, 9/11 commision? Iraq war disaster? He's running on being a 'war preznit' ... how do you think that'll work for him? I can't wait for House of Bush, House of Saud to come out.
:evilgrin:

Everything bush has done has been a complete disaster.

The only way he can win is by stealing it. Again.

S. 1980 has only got four co-sponsors (Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act of 2003). Call your senators TODAY and demand they sign it!

[adriennel]

24. what job growth???

just this morning I heard of 3 major layoffs (Sun, Gateway, and the Detroit public school system is laying off 900 teachers due to budget shortfall. Yes, 900!!!) Life is great!!!

It's total BS, people....Wall Street still loves companies that cut costs (Gateway stock went up today!)Our infrastructure is seriously flawed. What good is the American consumer if they don't have a job! arghhhhhhh

[Streetdoc270]

25. So when do we get to post new numbers?

Someone who is good with web stuff should make a counter that starts at 308,000 and starts subtracting every time another story on lost jobs comes out. Just in LBN today I saw 3 stories of companies that are cutting jobs equaling close to 10k losses, It looks more like job reshuffling not job growth.

[blm]

28. Why do you want us to even contemplate losing?

I think that's a pisspoor attitude to promote on a Democratic message board during the most important election of our lifetime.

[redqueen]

29. This response is one I have also had - to many posts here lately

:wtf:

[skippysmom]

30. I don't think so

Lots of time till the election. He'll need to see similar job growth every month from now till November. And people will need to start feeling that the economy is getting better on a personal level.

Not to mention that he looks worse and worse on foreign policy every day. So what can he run on?

The only way they win is if the media gives him a free pass -- and they steal votes again.

[ibegurpard]

31. No one's dead in the water until after the election.

eom

[DemNoir]

32. Here we go DU'ers favorite pastime, panic

Last few days it was the Gallup poll, now we can all enjoy a weekend of defeatism over this