Bush numbers up? Bushit! Kerry's ahead. Here are the numbers.

[TruthIsAll]

And Kerry is ahead by even more than these polls show. CNN et al have their marching orders. Keep Bush close for Diebold.

How do I know this? I have no proof. But they lie about everything, don't you think they would lie about this also? And how did Bush's numbers jump given Clarke's testimony, the Medicare scandal, keeping Clinton's papers from the 9/11 commission, the Cheney/Bush tagteam testimony, and the growing chaos in Iraq?

Plus, the new environmental scandal shown on 60 Minutes tonight will cause further deterioration in Bush's real, unpublished numbers. We don't know what they are. But you bet Rove does. And so does Kerry.


11-POLL AVERAGE
Avg Bush Kerry
Jan 51.25 40.50
Feb 45.50 47.38
Mar 44.80 46.80
Apr 46.14 46.57

IBD Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 41 44
Mar 45 40


ABC Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 43 52
Mar 44 53


AP Bush Kerry
Jan 54 37
Feb na na
Mar 46 45
Apr 46 43

NWK Bush Kerry
Jan 52 41
Feb 45 50
Mar 45 48
Apr 47 48

ARG Bush Kerry
Jan 46 47
Feb 46 48
Mar 43 50


NBC Bush Kerry
Jan 54 35
Feb na na
Mar 47 45


FOX Bush Kerry
Jan 54 32
Feb 47 43
Mar 44 44
Apr 44 44

CBS Bush Kerry
Jan 43 48
Feb 46 47
Mar 46 43
Apr 43 48

CNN Bush Kerry
Jan 55 43
Feb 49 48
Mar 44 52
Apr 51 47

PEW Bush Kerry
Jan 52 41
Feb 47 47
Mar 44 48
Apr 46 47

LA Times
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar na na
Apr 46 49

[unblock]

1. bush's number is up, all right

i think the republicans are getting the hint that he's a liability....

[DaveSZ]

2. Since the Fox poll has them tied,

that means Kerry's ahead by a small margin.

:P

[Jane Austin]

3. Haha!

That's cute! :)

[Prodemsouth]

4. Gee Whiz imagine where Kerry would be if he was actually campaigning

like he wanted the job.

[are_we_united_yet]

5. CNN/Gallup/USA Today polls

seem to be biased towards *.

I just don't believe anything they say.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. Informal poll in Arkansas

In the course of my job, I talk to a lot of people. Recently, the sales taxes were increased here, and it is a hot topic. It's easy to explain how Bush's tactic of keeping money from the states, enacting unfunded mandates, etc, have caused this to happen. When I start talking about this, all I get is agreement. The conversation ends with the other person saying, "I'm a registered Republican, but I'm not voting for Bush again." This in a town that overwhelmingly supported Asa Hutchinson when he was in Congress!

And get this-another sign. Bumper stickers. By this time in 2000, I saw a ton of stickers saying "Veterans for Bush" and "Sportsmen for Bush". So far, I've seen three Bush/Cheney stickers. I've seen stickers for Blanche Lincoln, our Democratic Senator, and a sticker that said "Draft Clark". And NO ONE has had ONE bad thing to say about the signs on my car-the only thing I had happen was a local businessman asking me which Democrat I felt would make the best President (this was before the primaries)! I think there is a real sea change going on. The majority of Republicans aren't nearly as rabidly right-wing as Bush, and they don't like the direction he's taking the country.

[oasis]

7. Kerry's record campaign donations will have something to say before long.

[DaveSZ]

9. ayeshahaqqiqa

Your state seems more moderate than many other Southern states.

[imax2268]

8. That 60 minutes

segment hopefully did some damage...it was painfully obvious how corrupt these twits are...I hope everyone got a dose of reality from that segment...

I'm just wondering when they will come out and assuault that guy's character like they have with so many other people...

[DeepModem Mom]

10. Looks even, with Kerry holding his own, and Bush bumped a bit..

Thanks, TIA!

[AnnInLa]

11. tonight on Larry King

Ted Kennedy tonight with Larry King, should be interesting

[KharmaTrain]

12. Want A REAL Poll???

I'm trying to figure out how to do it...maybe someone has an idea...

I'd like to get the polls of the largest newspapers in each state...or similar university poll...then compile them state by state and put the numbers to the Electoral map. Then, we'll get a picture of where things are really at, not this horserace crap of 2,000 or fewer callers used purely to create noise in the disguise of news.

[RedEagle]

13. State and Local Polls

Seems I've seen a few state polls posted and Bush seems not to fare very well in those.

Sometimes you wonder if the news organizations know just who to call?

Of course, questions, especially leading questions, can be employed. That can give appearances of a "yes" answer that really isn't about Bush.

TIA, maybe you could challenge a news service to let you conduct your own, a citizen poll,(courtesy of the company) observe theirs, see where they place those calls, how they figure the stats, what the information really looks like.

[KharmaTrain]

15. If I Get Ambitious...

I know there are several sites, plus I'm a Zogby participant, that have specific polls during the election season. I'm hoping to gather those up...see how deep those numbers go, then assemble them against the electoral college map to see where things are.

These "national polls" are worthless as, if we didn't need to know, elections aren't won on the popular vote. So just the premise of sampling even 10,000 people nationally, without weighting it for location and other variables, is, as my late father put it "mental masterbation".

Cheers!

[Poiuyt]

18. Try these sites:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

http://www.censeoresearch.com/2004pres.htm

[Festivito]

14. Occasional poll reversal could be a Republican ploy.

They need to convince their faithful that the polls are erratic. If and when the computer counts come back with strange results this November they will have plausible deniability against charges that the votes were not tallied properly.

[placton]

16. I suggest you check this poll often:

The Rassmussen poll is a daily tracking poll. It goes back and forth, showing a very close race. I believe that's what is gonna happen. I check it daily, and don't worry about "out-of-date" polls that are days or weeks old.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[TruthIsAll]

19. Don't trust Rasmussen.

He is biased for Bush. Check his 2000 polling.

[TruthIsAll]

17. KIck

tia