New Zogby results out today!

[Sticky]

Released: April 05, 2004

Kerry 47, Bush 45; With Nader, It's Still A Tie,

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a slight lead (47%-45%) over President George W. Bush with 45% among likely voters, according to a new Zogby International poll. The poll of 1035 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday (April 1-4, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. exact agreement with Rasmussen poll

and no Nader.

[Sticky]

3. This looks promising

"Only 44% of likely voters say that the President "deserves to be re-elected", while the majority (51%) continues to say that it is "time for someone new."
____

Hopefully the 44% who say things are going swimmingly are paying attention to today's news.

[worldgonekrazy]

5. Hopefully the 9/11 Commission will seriously erode that number

I don't know, we'll just have to see how it turns out. But if the commission is anything more than a COMPLETE whitewash, it should be very damning for Bush.

[bearfartinthewoods]

16. i had hoped the Clarke stuff would have had more effect. n/t

[Beetwasher]

2. Shall We Discuss Gallup Again?

Just asking...No doubt anymore that Gallup is the official propoganda polling firm of the WH...

[RoundRockD]

6. It will be interesting to see how CNN spins this.

They are still quoting their poll even though 2 more came out with Kerry leading Bush.

[Beetwasher]

8. They Won't Touch It

They will only discuss their bullshit Gallup poll. Meanwhile every single other poll is in DIRECT contradiction to the bullshit Gallup poll...

[Sticky]

14. As a public service

I sent this link to [e-mail]. I know he'd want to spin it..er..I mean report it. :-(

[Nazgul35]

4. Is this a national poll?

They mean absolutely nothing....

It is the state by state results that matter....

think about it....there were 1035 respondents....50 states...that's 20.7 respondents per state on average....

this includes states that haven't had a single ad run by Kerry, remember that they are only running ads in 18-20 battle ground states...it would be better to just poll those states...

And if you heard the NPR report on how exactly they conduct these polls you'd be scared shitless.....

[worldgonekrazy]

7. What about this NPR report?

Do you think you could sum it up for me? It sounds interesting.

[Nazgul35]

12. It ran about a month ago...

they had a reporter cover Zogby during the Wisconsin poll that he put out the day before the election...

One of his callers was on the phone talking with a respondent about them both being born-again Christians and how they'd meet in heaven...

Another pressured callers into making choices. Zogby doesn't let respondents know that "I don't know" is a choice. This caller badgerred the individual into making a choice...he picked Dean and was recorded as Leaning Dean...

The race turned out to be closer than expected (Zogby had Kerry up big)...so the story became Kerry stumbles....because the poll was not accurate to begin with....

The reporter pointed out a pollster in the 70s who came up with four questions that determined how mushy the poll was. Today, pollsters don't use because the media didn't like having to say that the poll was no good because people had no idea what they were talking about...so the industry just went ahead with asking the questions without determining the level of knowledge...

She later called back 15 people who were polled and determined that 3 actually voted the way they responded...5 didn't vote and 1 was a repug....the others switched...

Polling is horrendous and it has such an influence on races that they should be exposed at how poorly they actually measure public opinion....

[Zookeeper]

9. Anyone can sign up to do these Zogby polls...

We should get all the DUers on board!

[Nazgul35]

13. I have already...

:evilgrin:

[Luvpurp]

10. I wish it was October

If Dumbya was looking at the 51% "its time for someone new" number we could stick a fork in him. Unfortunately, there is a long way to go. I encourage people not to get too excited or too down about polls this far out.

[alcuno]

11. I like the blue states/red states numbers

Kerry leads 47-42 in the blue states
Bush leads 48-46 in the red states (a more narrow lead)

* can't get over 50% in the red states?

[0007]

15. We mustn't forget there is an 8.75% fudge factor

So realistically Kerry has a double digit lead.