400,000 troops needed in similar situations as Iraq to keep the peace

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/bw/20040415/bs_bw/nf200404154527db038&cid=66&ncid=1501

Iraq: A Most Dangerous Moment

<snip>Can the U.S. stabilize Iraq and pick up the pieces of the rebuilding drive?


That's the question of the hour. A year after Baghdad fell, the bloody events of early April have made it clear that the U.S. hold on Iraq remains weak. Staying on track will require two things: more troops to maintain security, supplemented by a craftier political strategy.


How many more troops will the U.S.-led coalition need to restore security?


At his Apr. 13 news conference, Bush said he would send the roughly 10,000 additional soldiers commanders requested to bolster the 150,000 coalition troops on the ground. But analysts such as Rand Corp. peacekeeping expert and former State Dept. special envoy James Dobbins say as many as 400,000 troops are needed to match the peacekeeping clout used in other volatile countries. The 250,000 Iraqis the U.S. hopes to have in uniform will help, but the security services' recent refusal to fight fellow Iraqis shows they aren't up to the task -- and won't be for at least a year.


Does the U.S. have the manpower on hand to send the number of troops needed?


In theory, yes; in practice, no. The Army, for example, already is deploying 22 of 33 active brigades, with 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers in each. Of those, 16 brigades are already in Iraq. Trouble is, today's family- and career-oriented volunteer force is vastly different from, say, the draftees of Vietnam. Studies show the military can't keep troops on active deployment more than six months out of every two years without damaging recruitment and retention. By that standard, the force already is stressed.


Troops could be pulled from around the globe for a short operation, like Desert Storm, but not for the protracted operation now needed in Iraq. Nor is expanding the military the solution: It would take two years to train just six brigades.

more