Kerry Leads Bush 47-43 in Latest Zogby Poll

[malatesta1137]

from Democrats.com:

For years now, Gallup hasn't been able to poll its way out of a paper bag, while Zogby has been consistently right on the mark, including being the closest of all pollsters in their predictions of election 2000. So while Gallup goes off into wishful fantasies in a poll showing Bush leading, Zogby's poll shows not just a lead by Kerry over Bush for weeks in the face of a Bush media blitz, but a steady erosion of Bush's support, from 46% to 45% to 44%. Perhaps most signficantly, in terms of how the nation sees Bush's regime, 54% of moderates of both parties say they will vote for Kerry versus 34% for Bush. It is clear Bush is increasingly recognized for what he is: a rightwing extremist.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=821

[RummyTheDummy]

1. It's official

We live in a nation of mind numbed idiots. What time is American Idol on?

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

2. what is going on with all these polls?

Driving me crazy.:wtf:

[ParanoidPat]

4. Google psyops, CNN.....

.....or just click here! :evilgrin:

It's called D5E, "destruction, degradation, denial, disruption, deceit, and exploitation". See this thread for more details! :evilgrin:

[alcuno]

5. Zogby is polling likely voters.

Gallup, Newsweek, ABC/WP are polling registered voters.

[0007]

15. ....and polling only those who had not Read Richard Clarke's

book and those who never ever heard of Bob Woodward.

CNN MSNBC polls every day concerning the main issues and every day I read these polls that are against junior and his admin and yet Kerry is behind. Not hard to figure out what's going on!!

[stewert]

16. Get Your Facts Straight alcuno......

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 16-18, 2004. N=767 likely voters nationwide. MoE ±
4.

Bush - 51%
Kerry - 46%

--

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a three-point lead (47%-44%) over President
George W. Bush among likely voters, according to a new Zogby International poll.
The poll of 1049 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (April
15-17, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

----------

Not only did both polls sample likely voters, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll had Bush
4 points ahead of Kerry in their 3-26/28 poll, and 3 points ahead in their 4-5/8 poll.

All the other polls had Kerry leading Bush during that time. Gallup is a right-wing
polling service. Their polls are way off most of the time, they usually have Bush 5 to 7
points higher than any other polls.

Do you actually believe 51% of the people will vote for Bush, hell he only got 48% in
the 2000 election. There is no way he will get 51% of the vote in november, I bet he will
get about 45% of the vote in november.

I will also bet zogby is almost exactly right. I predict Bush will get less votes in the 2004
election, than he got in the 2000 election.

[Catch22Dem]

3. Thanks

All the negativity around here today is enough to make a guy take the night off and go play video games. ;)

Seriously though, April polls are about as useless as tits on a boarhog.

[prodigal_green]

8. baby boarhogs

might disagree...:)

[0007]

17. April has had a high death toll for the U.S. and much trouble

controlling those Iraqis that love us with rejection.

The higher the death count the higher junior poll numbers becomes, am I on to something?? LOL!!

[fizzana]

6. Zogby was the only poll that got the numbers in 2000 right.

n/t

[blm]

7. Doom and gloomers please take note.

What? Where did they all go?

[0007]

18. Not much traffic now, but they'll be back, LOL!

I love the way they work together in drowning a post.

[erformc]

9. Much as..

you rely on Zogby he was not the most accurate. In the 2002 Senate races (he got 4 of the closest races wrong). IN 2000 he picked Gore by 2.5 points.

Here's his night before election #s in 2002


SD Senate- Thune (R) Over Johnson (D) 52-47
SD Senate- Johnson (D) Over Thune (R) 50-49


MN Senate- Mondale (D) Over Coleman (R) 51-45
MN Senate- Coleman (R) Over Mondale (D) 50-47
Pollster John Zogby: "Despite the President's best efforts, looks like Mondale holds on."

GA Senate- Cleland (D) Over Chambliss (R) 50-48
GA Senate- Chambliss (R) Over Cleland (D) 53-46
Pollster John Zogby: "A big surprise because this race was on the watch list, then off, then on again. This one is truly too close to call, but more voters think it is time for someone new than feel that Cleland deserves re-election. Here's another race where 401K-holders vote against the incumbent."

CO Senate- Strickland (D) Over Allard (R) 51-46
CO Senate- Allard (R) Over Strickland (D) 51-45
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks to me like Strickland will win this, though it has tightened again. Allard's re-elect numbers where never good and interestingly, while 401K-holders voted solidly Republican in 2000, the two candidates tied among this group - advantage Strickland."

[stewert]

13. This is Not a Senate Race !

Nobody is very accurate in Senate races, they are much harder to predict than a national
Presidential race.

Zobgy has been the most accurate pollster in the Presidential elections for a long long time,
this is a fact.

[erformc]

20. I agree...

that Zogby is one of the best, but in reality, he was not the only one to get the 2000 election correct. In fact there were several others who got it closer than he did, although he was the only one that had Gore winning by more than 1%. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics was actually the closest. Their last poll showed a 48-48 tie.

This is from the national Counsel on Public Polls showing the results of the 10 major national pollsters in 2000. Also, what 2000 should have taught us is that Rasmussen polls (then called "Portrait of America") and the Goas/Lake "Battleground Poll" are bad. Both had Bush winning by about 4%.

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm


And really, state polls are easier, as its easier to get a sample based on past voting patterns. Beleive it or not Survey USA, whose methods are questionable actually had a much better record than Zogby in the 2002 Senate races. I think the reason is that a great deal of those votes were decided very late, adn Zogby tracked over 3 days, whereas Survey USA only tracked the night before. Generally tracking polls over a few days are best, but in this case Zogby couldn't catch that. i'd be interested to see only the results of his last poll prior to the election. The same thing happened to the other pollsters in 2000. They didn't pick up the big swing towards Gore in 2000 after the DUI story broke and Bush eased up on campaigning.

[stewert]

23. erformc...........

Nice try but I will not bite...........

The poll reported in this thread is on the presidential race.

You reply saying zobgy is not accurate in Senate races, this was done to
discredit zogby. Even though it had nothing to do with his accuracy in the
presidential polls.

You are a spinner, why ?

I have no idea, you are trying to discredit the zobgy polls.

Why ?

I have no idea.

Zogby was the most accurate pollster in the 2000 presidential election.

THIS IS A FACT.

He had it pretty much dead on and he picked Gore to win, no other pollster had Gore
winning.

Then you refer to a FOX news pol and claim they were the most accurate.

Bam, your credibility here just hit zero pal.

Have a nice day.

[Skittles]

24. you nailed it

:thumbsup:

[dusty64]

14. How much did the

electronic "voting" machines influence some of these "elections" however? Many polls, particularly in Georgia, showed the exact opposite of what actually happened. Coincidence?

[erformc]

22. If Cleland...

hasn't mentioned it, why should I?

[Teaser]

19. You are incorrect.

HE *was* the most accurate in 2000. He had Gore winning. No one else did.


And the numbers you give were wrong, but he got the vast bulk of numbers from individual states right. These races were heavily driven by turnout, which can boggle any poll.

[erformc]

21. See my..

post #13 on this subject.

[moondust]

26. About the "last poll".

As I posted in a thread yesterday, "get the last poll before the election correct and they'll call you a wizard." Since the last poll is all that counts, as your post demonstrates, why should anybody put any faith in all these other polls leading up to the last one? Why wouldn't a crooked corporate pollster on the take or with a strong bias slant his poll numbers in an effort to "lead" the voting public someplace so long as he goes with the truth on the last day and hopefully thus preserve his reputation?

[DeepModem Mom]

10. kick

[dbt]

11. Mo Kick!

In yer whorin faces, CNN/USA Today/Gallup. ABC, you can

kiss my shiny metal ass.

That is all.

:spank:
dbt

[dusty64]

12. This seems more

like it. Not because its results please me, but because I can't think of ONE person I know who has switched their voting preference to the rethugs over the last four years. I DO know a lot of people who were once chimp cheerleaders who now plan to vote Kerry or not at all.

[blm]

25. Newsweek and ARG polls show Kerry beating Bush, too.

I think the CNN and WP polls are psyops to help cushion Bush during Woodward's revelation swing around the media outklets.

[ibegurpard]

27. Good

Now can people stop having coronaries about the polls? They don't mean a goddamned thing until late in the summer!