A freeper has posted this memo sent to Bush-Cheney campaign leadership. A peek at the inside. There's a chart that doesn't show up in the cut and paste, you might want to go over there and see it.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1121165/postsTO: Campaign Leadership
FROM: Matthew Dowd, BC’04 Chief Strategist
RE: Bush-Cheney Strategy Memo on Recent Polls
DATE: 4/20/04
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New Polls: President Bush Shows Tremendous Resiliency; Kerry Shows Fundamental Weakness
Despite pundit speculation that the President had been weakened over the course of the last month, the President’s ballot position has improved, he shows tremendous strength over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq and he has made significant gains on handling the other important issues of the day.
According to Gallup, the President holds a narrow lead over John Kerry. In yesterday's Gallup poll, the President leads John Kerry, 51% to 46%, among likely voters. Since the beginning of the general election race in early March, the President has gone from trailing Kerry by 8 points to leading him by 5—a net increase of 13 points. This turnaround is confirmed by yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll which shows the President going from trailing Kerry by 9 points in early March to leading him by 1 point, 49% to 48%.
The President’s job approval rating remains strong. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, 52% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing. This rating is in the same range as President Reagan’s 54% approval rating in April 1984 and President Clinton’s 56% approval rating in April 1996. This poll is also confirmed by the National Annenberg Election Survey which shows that the President’s approval rating at 53%, and yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the President’s approval rating at 51%.
Despite the recent violence in Iraq, Americans are firm in their support for the President’s policies. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, a majority of Americans, 57%, support the US sending troops to Iraq. A similar number, 58%, believe the recent events in Iraq mean the US should intensify its military efforts, not scale them back.
Americans are increasingly confident in President Bush’s leadership on the economy. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, the President’s job approval on the economy increased by a net of 5 points since March and the number of Americans who say the economy is getting better increased by a net of 3 points. President Bush’s approval on the economy in yesterday’s Gallup poll increased to 46%, a net increase of 7 points since late March and exactly the same as President Clinton’s in the spring of 1996.
Voters have more confidence in President Bush on the important issues of terrorism and Iraq. The President has retained his commanding 21-point lead over Kerry on terrorism in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Interestingly, President Bush has gone from trailing Kerry by 1 point on handling Iraq in early March to leading him by 11 points today.
In fact, as voters get to know John Kerry, they have less confidence in his ability to lead on the issues. Americans trust President Bush over John Kerry to handle the main challenges the nation will face by a margin of 49% to 44%, making for a net increase of 10 points since early March. On individual issues, the President now leads Kerry by 21 points on terrorism, 16 points on same-sex marriage, 11 points on Iraq, and 6 points on taxes.
The Bush-Cheney campaign has been successful at defining the race. In focus groups recently conducted in Florida, Ohio, and Oregon by Democracy Corps, swing voters cited the President’s resolve and steady leadership and saw John Kerry as indecisive and ready to raise taxes. Participants noted that:
“He
performs well under pressure. You know, and he’s not afraid to make a tough decision”. (Florida, non-college educated man)
“He proved himself in a sticky situation and you don't know is this how the next person is going to handle it if it happens again, or something”. (Ohio, non-college educated woman)
“Participants could not point to any core convictions that defined Kerry.” Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s own analysis of the focus groups stated that voters were unable to cite Kerry’s basic principles. He also noted that “voters’ language reflected the campaign’s assertions as many people said Kerry ‘flip flops’ on issues, is indecisive, and will raise taxes.” Individual participants also made the following comments:
“Well, he flips back and forth it seems. Initially, he was supposedly for us going to Iraq and now he’s screaming for us to get out of there.” (Oregon, college educated woman)
“I heard that in the past he has voted for a lot of tax raises.” (Florida, non-college educated woman)
"You got that vote for the taxes, the gasoline hike and now he switched back here. So, okay, where is he really on the gas hike?” (Ohio non-college educated woman)
Recent national polling confirms that Americans see John Kerry as unprincipled. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post survey, 79% of Americans believe that President Bush “takes a position and sticks with it,” while just 41% say the same of Kerry. The President also leads Kerry by 8 points on the attribute of “always truthful in explaining his policies” and by 6 points on “is honest and trustworthy.”
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