John Zogby has a question for you about the new ABC/Gallup polls

[PA-DEM]

"after the two weeks that the president has had do people really believe he got a bump in the polls?"


Washington Post.

Brooklyn, N.Y.: Mr. Zogby -- last week CNN-Gallup and WAPO-ABC released polls showing Bush with a 4-6 point lead, while you (whose polls I put much more stock in) released a poll showing Kerry with a 3 point lead. Presumably, this does not come from the margin of error -- how is your selection technique different from the other two polls?


John Zogby : It really isn’t very different. I use listed telephone numbers instead of random digit dialing. At times I apply a weight for political party identification while at other times I don’t. But again, I think the polls are much closer to each other than they are apart and I would ask this question – after the two weeks that the president has had do people really believe he got a bump in the polls?

[buddy22600]

1. I stated and im stating again,

he weights some numbers to show what he wants to show, he is on hannity all the time, so what do you think he wants to show, bush down, down, down, then shortly before the election, "I see a new trend soming, bush is gonna win, the numbers dont lie"

[Beetwasher]

4. Uhh, ALL Pollsters Use Weights

It's a necessity in polling.

Do you know anything about data collection and analysis?

[PA-DEM]

5. Oh please

He is also on Hardball all the time. Get a clue all pollsters weights there numbers. This is polling 101.

[Frodo]

11. So he wanted Gore to win in 2000 but Bush today?

That's what you must be saying... because he showed Gore behind until the last couple days and then "I see a new trend".

The truth is what just about everyone says (when DOWN in the polls) "the polls don't matter this far out". The actual numbers are irrelevant. All we need to know is that we're between five points up and five points down. The conventions to the election are all that matter.

Now, if we were up or down by consistently solid double-digits it would be different.

[samsingh]

2. i don't believe he got a bump in the polls

but that would imply that the polling companies are now corrupted agents or enabling agents. How deep does this whoredom go? Is the US now officially a banana republic?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. Link, please.

I'd like to read the whole article.

[CatWoman]

6. ....

http://discuss.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/zforum/04/sp_politics_zogby042204.htm

[Beetwasher]

8. Thanks! Check this Out!

"I haven’t gotten it wrong. I have gotten the presidential elections almost perfect. 1996 was within a couple of tenths of a percent, I had the Gore victory in the popular vote in 2000 and nailed almost all of my elections in 2004 – the primaries."

and:

"I think this election is John Kerry’s to lose. Which is not to say that he can’t rise to the occasion."

[VolcanoJen]

9. Someone PLEASE pass this news on to John Kerry.

Thanks. :D

[Brotherjohn]

7. Bush got no bump at all in approval ratings.

His approval rating in these two polls, and in fact in every poll, are still at record lows (within MOE).

http://pollingreport.com

[59millionmorons]

10. Exactly

It was just not logical to have better ratings.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. kick