How real is the possibility of a military draft?

[battleknight24]

I'm 22... I'm elligible to be drafted for about 4 more years...

[DarkPhenyx]

1. Pretty real.

Our current forces are spread too thin and the long deployments are coming around on too fast of a rotation.

[salin]

10. Agreed - unless major shift in policy (not JUST in Iraq)

it is inevitable. The President seems to be convinced pretty easily by his advisors to take the HUGE STICK AND USE IT theory of foreign policy - and their lead as to where the club needs to be wielded. The rhetoric used in the year before the big push to sell the war in Iraq has been recycled and is being used for no less than three possible additional campaigns. How the heck can they keep talking about this when we can't barely man our current commitments? Severe disconnect between policy implications and policy choices. Add a mentality that seems to equate shifting policy grears = failure - and it is unlikely to shift away from the rhetoric and the future actions implied. They are smart enough to postpone this until after the election (both the hard sell on the rhetoric - and any policy of a draft) - but we seem to be on a collision course in terms of policies and realities that suggest there is no way to avoid a draft...

[Walt Starr]

2. Get used to the idea, it is going to happen.

It matters not who gets elected. There WILL be a draft instituted in 2005 because it is the only way we can continue a legitimate war on terror while maintaining an occupying force in Iraq because of the greatest military blunder in history.

[MUAD_DIB]

12. Bush 04/Draft 05

Let's just hope that he loses big so DieBold can't futz with the results.

[Walt Starr]

15. No matter who wins 04/ Draft 05

We are at the brink. There is nothing anybody can do now. A draft is inevitable.

Nobody can do anything to stop it, not even a Kerry victory will make the draft go away.

Only one thing can stop it. Pick up every trooper and piece of equipment in Iraq and leave.

21. I really wonder if this is getting through to people

I've been seeing a lot of draft age DUers posting about this recently.

Maybe it finally is.


I had hoped it wouldn't get this far as someone who had to deal with the draft myself once.

[Kahuna]

3. Very real. Not enough troops to fight bushco oil wars..

Two of my nephews have left the military because of bush. One, after 13 years and Gulf War I and II. Enough is enough.

[pmbryant]

4. Virtually zero chance

The draft was political doom back in the Vietnam era (that's why it was killed, after all), and it would be again. Probably even more so. It ain't going to happen.

--Peter

[salin]

13. until after the election

if the bush folks win - a) their arrogance will be boundless (heck we can do ANYTHING and the public will support us, and whoever we appoint to run for president in 2008); and b) there will be perceived to be ample time - if they act early in 2005, between the action and the next presidential election; and c) they have become expert at using marketing polls to repackage unpopular ideas in ways that the public suddenly supports: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0204.green.html

[pmbryant]

24. It's not just up to them; it has to pass Congress

There can be no draft without an act of Congress, as I understand it, and there is no way a majority of both houses of Congress would do this unless we were in another WWII situation.

Plus, the military doesn't want to have to deal with draftees. Plus, the neo-cons don't either, as that would make their military adventures much more accountable to the public at large than they are currently.

Currently, their wars don't affect a very large proportion of people in this country. Install a draft, and that would change in a hurry.

It ain't going to happen.

--Peter

[salin]

30. So the neocons abandon all of their ideology

and policies and plans?

The republicans have become pretty good at passing things through the republican congress. If they get the right SELL behind it - they can do it. Remember before the war vote... only 29% of the public supported a war against Iraq if the US was to go without the UN. Most in congress reported much more public comment against the war resolution than for it. But the PR machine ... faux scare intelligence.. and a lot of arm twisting - shifted adament against the war res votes into pro war res votes. With this gang - I will never say never again.

[pmbryant]

33. No. They'll work around it.

Draft == accountability.

And that's the one thing these guys don't want.

War was still very hypothetical back in 2002 when the events you mention took place. The Afghanistan war had been mostly from the air, with only a limited number of US ground troops deployed.

War is no longer hypothetical to Americans. And serious consideration and/or passage of any draft bill would make it even more real.

There are few things I think are beyond the aims of this despicable administration. But this is one of them. It is simply not in their interests, and that is the decisive factor with these guys.

--Peter

[battleknight24]

5. I read that... (I'm the original poster...)

... the U.S. Selective service no longer exempts or even defers college students; once you finish the semester, you must enlist (or whatever...)

[MrSlayer]

6. If Chimpy wins, head for the hills.

Because your ass is going to the desert.

[battleknight24]

7. Should I flunk the eye exam?

?

[DarkPhenyx]

14. Ever seen the Donald Duck draft cartoon?

It's damn near impossible to flunk your exam.

[battleknight24]

22. I don't remember that one... tell me about it...

...

[DarkPhenyx]

23. During his eye exam...

...they hold up a red card with the word "red" on it ans ask him what color the card is. Same for yellow, green...on green he answers "blue" and they say "close enough".

[battleknight24]

25. Sounds vaguely familiar...

... I might have seen it when I was really, really young...

[DarkPhenyx]

27. Please don't make me feel old.

I'll have to shoot you if you do. ;-)

[0007]

17. Ya have to do what you got to do when you have to do it!

No one can answer that question except you my friend. No matter what decision you make it will be the right one. You cannot fail.

[mindfulNJ]

8. everyone of draft age

should be talking to their friends about this...I think if more young people were aware that this is a very real possibility under a Bush second term, chimpy doesn't have a chance in November.

[WI_DEM]

9. very

sorry to say, but many more people on both sides of the aile in washington are embracing the idea thanks to the situation in Iraq--from liberal Charlie Rangel in NY to conservative John McCain in Arizona.

[battleknight24]

11. Will we have even more protests if there is a draft?

?

[WI_DEM]

18. oh yeah you can bet on it

if the draft comes back people will be taking to the streets and not only people of draft age but many of their parents as well.

[0007]

19. Many factors are involved

[robertpaulsen]

26. Huge protests, Bush won't give a shit.

Even if half a billion people around the world protest, it's all just one insignificant focus group to Dumbya.

16. very very very very very very very very very very very very very very

Real.
In my opinion.

Welcome to the world of your parents.

[Leilani]

20. Depends

The politicians do not want it cause it s unpopular.

The military does not want it; they want volunteers.

But we don t have enough people to do the job.

[Jacobin]

28. Certain

The legislation is in place to fund the selective service and it will be up and running July 2005.

The PNAC crowd is determined to conquer Iraq, Iran and Syria. That will take hundreds of thousands more troops. Read their website. They are in control.

I'm concerned that Kerry will follow along with that agenda. We know Bush's puppetmasters will do it. Which is why I'm making plans to move myself and my sons out of what was once my country.

[Piperay]

29. Likely

after the election. Just a couple of days ago I would have said NO, but now I think it is realistically very likely.

[Crachet2004]

31. They want a draft so bad they will do anything to get it.

Mercenaries have never been an answer. They are only good against unarmed civilians. A man who is willing to kill for money is too cautious of his own hide...they need young people, who will be more readily propagandized, to charge the machinegun nests of the future.

All the Neocon's plans will come to nothing without more, and cheaper, manpower.

But I am disturbed at Democrats buying into the need for a draft- hook, line and sinker. The only reason Terrorism directed at the US exists AT ALL, is because our corporations are raping the planet, and are being bodyguarded by our military. Our military is in 120 out of 196 nations on this planet...do you think this might be at least part of why we are so widely hated, or do you believe as Asshole Bush says HE does, that 'they hate us for our freedom'?

I say, if there is going to be a draft, let the GOP bring it to pass on their own, with no help from us...because the whole thing is sure to go afoul. The rest of the world has already begun banding together against us, and we cannot stand alone. We also cannot PAY for continuing war alone...and it is becoming harder for the administration to coverup the truth behind their bogus economic numbers.

[mac1000a]

32. If Bush wins

He will DEFINITELY bring back the draft. Kerry? I doubt it. I understand what people are saying about how the military is stretched too thin, and it is, but I think Kerry knows better. If he brings it back, he can kiss his second term goodbye. Bush, on the other hand, has nothing to lose.

[ringmastery]

34. you are too old for the draft

Yes, anyone aged 18-26 years of age CAN be drafted BUT and this is always overlooked, the law says first priority in a draft goes to people who turn 20 in the year of the draft. 21 year olds are second priority, and so on....

Since there are 1.8 million men who turn 20 each year and even in the Vietnam war, there was never more than a few hundred thousand troops drafted per year, the likelihood of anyone other than a 20 year old being drafted is for all intents and purposes nill.

Now if you are 17, 18, or 19, I would be scared shitless and trying to prepare a case for getting out of the draft now. If you have skills such as computers, or a linguist, you might also be under the gun.

But if you are 21 and older, your risk of getting selected for the draft is minimal.

[northernsoul]

35. if it does happen, I'll be happy to provide legal information

Personally, I think that military conscription constitutes "involuntary servitude" as forbidden by the 13th Amendment. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court didn't see it my way in 1918 and hasn't addressed the issue since then.

I hope the draft doesn't happen, but if it does I'll cheerfully give all I've got mounting every legal challenge imaginable.