Bad news for Kerry in PA poll.

[HootieMcBoob]

A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll released Wednesday showed that Bush leads Kerry in Pennsylvania, which is considered a critical swing state.
Bush had 45 percent of the vote, while Kerry had 39 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader had 8 percent, according to the poll.

This is not good. Gore won Pennsylvania by about 200,000 votes in 2000. Kerry absolutely has to win PA. Once again it's Nader who's taking up the critical votes that would otherwise go to Kerry.

[Lithos]

1. Last I heard about Nader

was that he hadn't qualified in any state to be on the ballot. We shall see if that 8 percent is just leaning/sympathy.

L-

[HootieMcBoob]

4. Let's hope he doesn't make it on the ballot

also in some of the other close swing states like Ohio and West Virginia just next door.

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. He has until August 2 in PA to qualify for the ballot

[WVhill]

15. I doubt he'll be on the WV ballot.

The only chance he has is to get the Mountain State party's nomination. From the newspaper reports, that's not going to happen.

[SlackJaw]

14. I heard that it is almost inevitable

I heard that it is almost inevitable now. He will make the ballot in 47 states.

[Dark]

2. Kerry was behind in other polls before

and look what happened. (Iowa)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Teresa Heinz

that's my rebuttal.

[HootieMcBoob]

6. Good Point

She is very influential especially in western PA. Lot's of charitable donations there.

[fencesitter]

5. WTF?

Clinton took PA, Gore took PA, Rendell is the new Dem gov., how could Bush take PA?

[chemenger]

8. Poor democratic voter turnout

in November would be one good explaination. Even tho' everything you said is true, the state of PA is listing very heavily towards the Republican party. Just think ... Santorum, Spectre (or Toomey come November), Hart (the female clone of Santorum), etc.

[tigereye]

16. it is funny I have'nt even seen any Kerry signs

around here for the primary.. it is assumed that Dems will vote for Kerry and there is little attention on the Dem primary here from what I can see. However, the presidential election will be another matter.
I think Dems will be out in force because of the ramifications of the last election, the economic situation and Iraq.

There is a lot of fundie money for Toomey(gag) but even Bush and Santorum campaigned for Arlen here(and Arlen with all his faults is still a lot better than Rick, Hart- another gag- or what Toomey would be.) If Toomey were to win the Rep nom, he would likely be beaten by the Dem candidate ( Huffle... never heard of this guy, don't know where they drag them out from?) because Toomey is sooo far right.

I live in Pgh by the way

[JI7]

9. Bush led in PA this time in 2000

bush was leading in the state in this time in the year 2000. also kerry is only starting to campaign there. and bush has visited pa the most out of any state(or swing state). the numbers are not that bad considering all that.

[JI7]

7. not bad news, bush has visited pa the most

kerry hasn't really started campaigning in the state. he just visited last week. i'm sure he will step up his campaigning after the primary is over. right now the focus in the state is mostly on the republican senate primary. also, consider that bush has visited the state about 25 times since he got into office, i heard it was the most visits of any state. and of course he is already running ads. taking all that into account, especially the fact that kerry hasn't started campaigning there much yet, the numbers are not bad news. lets see what they are after kerry actually starts campaigning there and after the primary.

[Sparkly]

11. That's key

Kerry's raising money and hasn't really started spending it yet; Bush has been running alot of ads, and as we all know these are all negative slam-Kerry ads. It's early!

[Snellius]

12. Bush = 45% Kerry+Nader = 47%

What's interesting about these polls is that Bush's number have not really moved. The major shift has been from Kerry to Nader (Naders numbers, even without the Greens, are better than 2000), as Naderites and many Deaniacs try to send a message, a no-confidence vote of protest, that the Dems are going to get trampled again if they keep trying to play it safe. Thanks, again, Bob Shrum.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

23. Yes. Bush has NO traction. He can't win any new support

people just are not committing to Kerry yet.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. Instead of trashing Nader/Greens maybe you should ask why

we are not voting for your candidate. Kerry's latest "Iraq" plan sounds an awful lot like the current Dummy in Chief's.

[Snellius]

26. Absolutely. Not trashing Nader at all.

(Unless they actually vote for him.) This should be a big wake-up call to Kerry who so far is putting everyone to sleep.

[JM]

13. They can poll all they want

but I go by what my friends and family are saying

Nearly every one of my Repub moderate friends are embarrassed they voted for him the first time and swear up and down they won't do it again. These are middle class people, some business owners. My grandfather was a Republican moderate for eons, and has now switched parties.

I don't think they are going to make this a red state. Even if Toomey wins the primary it makes the distinction between Toomey and Hoeffel that much better. Rational thinking individual vs. Attilla the Hun.

Add to that Kerry hasn't even campaigned here much yet. I heard his Pittsburgh rally was good though. Shame I couldn't make it.


JM

[tigereye]

17. I couldn't go either, but I heard it was great

[BigDaddyLove]

20. In addition, I would doubt very much that the 200,000..............

more people who voted for Gore over Bush in 2000 would actually decide switch and vote for Bush this time around.

[rumguy]

18. Nadar at 8%?

We'll see if that holds. I doubt it will.

[Killarney]

19. AGH NADER!

:mad:

[John_H]

21. LOL! Another newbie Poll Poster

Please read http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1455359 to understand why polls don't mean shit at this point.

[leesa]

22. Right.. N = 890 Republicans again?

Nadar is not taking any votes away this time, except from Bush. Sorry to disappoint you.

[bobbyboucher]

24. It's a fucking poll, duh!

Don't say who is taking who's votes because nobody has voted yet, drrrr.