Looks like some good news in these polls that "show" Bush ahead.

[FloridaPat]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000475.shtml


One must be cautious about these data, of course, because of sample size and other problems (though note that the ABC News battleground states sample is probably 300 or so, which is a pretty decent size). But they do lead me to a hypothesis about Bush's recent improved performance in trial heat questions. Instead of getting more votes where he needs them--in the battleground states--his posturing is mostly driving up his support in the hardcore red states, where he doesn't need them. If that's true, Democrats should definitely not be intimidated by recent poll results. Bush is preaching to the converted--which can make him look better in a national poll--but he's not winning many new converts where it counts.

[DeepModem Mom]

1. This thought had occurred to me -- that the rise in poll numbers...

might be coming from red states, probably lost to us anyway.