More dead scientists. What do you think is REALLY going on?

[prolesunited]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x508396

Another scientist has died under suspicious circumstances. Do you think the rash of deaths are related? Who is behind it and how deep does it go? What happens next?

Let me add a caveat. I am very skeptical by nature and no one I know would characterize me as a conspiracy theorist. However, the truths that have been revealed during the past few years have blown me away. I am no longer ready to dismiss what may at first seem like paranoia-fed delusions any more.

So, what do you think?

[Downtown Hound]

1. Hmmm...

I have no idea, but I've heard of this before. Aren't they all in the same field too? Weird. And creepy.

[prolesunited]

2. Read up, courtesy of Minstrel Boy

Some related threads:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic...

Welcome to DU! :hi:
How did you find us?

[Downtown Hound]

25. Thanks for the welcome and info

I arrived here because of links from other progressive websites, I think the exact one was takebackthemedia.com. I'd heard of DU before but only recently visited.

[papau]

4. Anthrax researcher in his 20's chooses to sniff poison gas outside work in

early am?

sure - why not?

[Sufi Marmot]

27. What's the evidence he was an anthrax researcher? n/t

[Sufi Marmot]

9. No, they aren't all in the same field....

The dead scientists come from iverse disciplines within the spectrum of biology, and most of them weren't "world class", by any reasonable metric. By way of analogy: Would you be suspicious if all of the following all died over an 18-24 month period: a) Scottie Pippen, b) the Women's Gymnastics Coach at Purdue, c) the guy who came in third in the high jump at the Washington State High School Track Championships, d) a member of the Chinese Womens' water polo team, e) a jockey who rides at Saratoga Springs, f) a ski instructor at Killington, g) The pitching coach for the Boston Red Sox AA affiliate.

I could go on but you get the point - the only thing that these people have in common are that they are all associated somehow with athletics - just like the deceased biologists seem to have little in common other than they had occupations somehow relating to biology.

If there is any common link between any of the dead biologists (not microbiologists, just biologists...), nobody has identified it.

-SM, biologist

[Selwynn]

18. I remember you arguing this before, and I was convinced....

...this subject came up and was hotly debated a long time ago. I remember ultimately being convinced by your arguments.

Unless I am mistaking you for someone else, in which case - never mind then. :D

[Sufi Marmot]

20. It was probably me - this is my one hot button issue...LOL

I usually avoid flame wars and conspiracy theory/LIHOP/MIHOP threads, and I stayed out of GD:2004 during the Democratic primaries, and I rarely get involved in the Democrat/Green fracas, but since I'm a biologist this is an issue I actually have an informed opinion on.

I actually spent some time doing Pubmed searches on most of the deceased biologists and I can't find any common thread - they're all over the map in terms of research. I'm of course willing to consider any new evidence, but I've never seen any solid facts linking any of the deceased. And unfortunately, the "dead microbiologist" meme has become mainstream because of some very irresponsible journalism, when the mainstream press picked up on and reported the internet speculation with no critical analysis.

Now everyone who worked in a lab anywhere at any time who dies prematurely/unexpectedly is fodder for the list, which is just going to get longer every time a biologist dies in a car accident or of an early heart attack, or a mentally disturbed graduate student kills himself.

-SM

[TruthIsAll]

10. 16 or more strange biologist deaths in 4 months: the odds

16 or more strange biologist deaths in 4 months: the odds

This analysis uses the same mathematics we used to compute the probability of 15 or more JFK witnesses turning up dead within a one year period. It's the SAME problem, but in this case the time interval is even shorter - 4 months, making it even more improbable.

We seek to calculate the probability of at least 15 microbiologists dying UNNATURAL deaths within a 4 month period. The deaths were a combination of homicides, suicides, accidents and undetermined origin.

The key VARIABLE is: How many world-class microbiologists are there? Not knowing this number, I have calculated the probabilities using three cases: 1000, 2000, 5000 biologists.

For a 4 month period the probability is 1/3 the full one year probabilty, which is what I initially used for the computations since one year mortality data is available.

To obtain the odds of unnatural death, I used 1999 mortality data:
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm


IMPORTANT NOTE: THE PROBABILITY OF 16 OR MORE STRANGE DEATHS OCCURING IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT IS FOR 15 OR MORE DEATHS. I USED 15 DEATHS AND 5000 WORLD-CLASS BIOLOGISTS AS ASSUMPTIONS BECAUSE I HAD THEM FROM THE PRIOR JFK ANALYSIS.

HERE IS THE RESULT, ASSUMING 5000 WORLD-CLASS BIOLOGISTS:
FOR 16 STRANGE DEATHS TO OCCUR FROM A UNIVERSE OF 5,000 IN A 4 MONTH PERIOD, THE ODDS ARE ABOUT 1 IN 100 MILLION.

FOR 15 DEATHS, the probability is approximately 1 in 15 million.
Assuming there are 5000 world-class microbiologists in the world, the probability is 1/3 * 1/5,239,858 or 1 in 15.7 million.

Assuming there are only 1000 world-class microbiologists, the probability that at least 15 would die UNNATURAL deaths in a FULL calendar year is: 1 out of 21,230,606,601,227,800 or
1 in 21,230 trillion, 606 billion, 601 million, 227 thousand, 800).
For 15 deaths to occur in a 4 MONTH period, the odds are 1/3 of this or: 1 out of 63,690 trillion....


These are the mortality rates:
........................1 year...Lifetime
Probability of:
suicide.................0.000107 0.008197
homicide................0.000062 0.004739
accidental death........0.000359 0.027778
undetermined death......0.000014 0.001101

The probability of an unnatural death FOR ANY AVERAGE PERSON in A GIVEN YEAR is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories = 0.000542, or approximately 1 in 2000.

The probability of an unnatural death in a LIFETIME is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories = 0.041815, about 1 in 25.

The Poisson Distribution
Although the Normal (Gaussian) probability distribution is by far the most important, there is another which has proven to be particularly useful - the Poisson Distribution, which is derived from, and is a special case of the Normal Distribution.

The Poisson Distribution applies when the probability "P" for success in any one trial is very small, but the number of trials N is so large that the expected number of successes, pN, is a moderate sized quantity. The formula is: P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m!

In words, the Probability of EXACTLY m successes = a to the m'th power times the exponential function of (-a), all divided by m factorial.

If m= 15, m factorial = m! = 15*14*13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1

Now lets use Poisson to determine the probability of a given number of individuals from ANY predefined group meeting unnatural deaths within a one-year period.

The only assumption we are making here is the number of biologists.
Assume for the sake of argument, there are N= 1000

Let p= Probability of any individual dying from UNNATURAL causes within a given year = 0.000542
Let a= Expected Number of deaths = pN= 0.542
Let m= Actual Number of UNNATURAL deaths = 15

The probability of exactly m=15 UNNATURAL deaths within a given year out of a predefined group of N = 1000 is:

P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m! or p(15)= 0.542**15*exp(-.542)/15!

Here are the probabilities for m=1 through m=15 deaths occuring within ONE year:

Prob(X=m) = probability of EXACTLY m DEATHS
Prob(X>=m) = probability of at AT LEAST m DEATHS (the one we want)

column 1 is n, the number of deaths,
column 2 is the probability of at least n deaths,
columm 3 is the actual odds (for example, 1 out of 5,239,859)

m.......Prob(X=m)........Prob(X>=m)

Assuming 5000 biologists:
n deaths..prob...1 out of..
1 0.933
2 .753 1.33
3 .508 1.97
4 0.288 3.47
5 0.138 7
6 .057 17
7 0.020 47
8 .00670 148
9 .00196 510
10 .00051 1,939
11 0.00012 8,070
12 0.000027 36,485
13 0.0000056 178,135
14 0.0000010 934,300

15 0.000000190 5,239,859

For a 4 month period (1/3 of a year), the probability is is 1/3 times 1/5,239,858 or approximately 1 out of 15 million.
FOR 16 DEATHS, IT IS ABOUT 1 OUT OF 100 MILLION.

Here are the probabilties for other cases (remember, the probabilities are actually 1/3 of those given, since the time interval is 4 months or 1/3 of a year):
-----------------
1000 biologists
n....prob..1 out of
1 0.418 2.39
2 0.103 9.69
3 0.0177 56.26
4 0.0023 427
5 0.0002 484,018
6 0.000022 45,091
7 0.00000169 588,306
8 0.000000114 8,752,118
9 0.00000000683 146,245,847
10 0.000000000368 2,712,122,977
11 0.0000000000180 55,278,020,364
12 0.000000000000814 1,228,276,488,499
13 0.0000000000000338 29,551,271,527,958
14 0.00000000000000130 765,351,111,903,523
15 0.00000000000000004710 21,230,606,601,227,800


-----------------------------
2000 biologists:
n.......prob....1 out of

1 .661 1.51
2 0.295 3.39
3 0.096 10.38
4 0.024 41
5 0.005 195
6 0.00089 1,113
7 0.000136 7,343
8 0.0000181 55,093
9 0.00000215 463,452
10 0.000000231 4,321,227
11 0.0000000226 44,239,588
12 0.00000000202 493,399,077
13 0.000000000167 5,954,899,756
14 0.0000000000129 77,331,852,139

15 0.00000000000093 1,075,228,365,705

[TruthIsAll]

11. Here are some google links on the topic...

Edited on Sun Jan-11-04 10:08 PM by TruthIsAll
Body Count: Fall-Out from the Bush Administration
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[Donkeyboy75]

17. Where do you get the date figure from?

If you are using the data from the Missouri.edu link, your set-up is wrong. These deaths occurred over a 27 month period. Also, the deaths I have seen referenced on here are not exclusively biologists. There are infectious disease experts, chemists and a whole smorgasboard of scientists. You need to increase your sample size by at least an order of magnitude.

[Selwynn]

19. What if they weren't "world class?" - recalculate for all biologists?

..and suddenly its not very interesting.

I remember this the last time it was posted - a biologist responded that they weren't world class in the first place, and the entire debate turned into whether they were world class or not. Really what you have is either a massing conspiracy to bump off top biologist, or you just have 16 biologists dying out of the entire field of biology.

The entire breakdown assumes these people were members of an elite sub group and that it would be strange for that many members of that elite sub group to die over the given time period. To me that is the highly debatable claim.

How about calculating the odds of 16 biologists dying over the given time period out of 1,000,000,000 biologists worldwide. What are the odds of that happening? Probably pretty good.. ?

I don't remember how the whole argument went, but I think it all hinges on whether or not you are right to treat the 16 biologists as part of some elite super group, and the calculate. Seeing as how there is no just group (its not like you get a card or something) it seems much more reasonable to be to figure out how likely it is that 16 biologists would die over a four month period out of the entire field of biology.

[Sufi Marmot]

21. I contributed to that discussion...

and, no, they weren't all "world class" by any reasonable metric, including publication record. They certainly weren't all members of the National Academy of Sciences, nor were they all full professors running their own labs.

A good way to figure out a baseline number of biologists, is to:

a) figure out how many countries the deceased biologists came from (they weren't all American - Pasechnik was of Russian origin and lived in England; I've seen some lists that count Russian? Ukrainian? biologists who died when that plane went down over the Ukraine...)

b) figure out who on the list was the oldest...

c) figure out how many biology degrees (Bachelors through Ph.D) and M.D (some of the deceased were doctors...) were issued in all the countries in part a) from the year onwards that the oldest received his degree.

That would give a good baseline, although you might have to account for degree overlap - some people would have multiple degrees. Anyway, it's a reasonable start.

-SM

On edit: I'm guessing that the pool of people with biology and medical degrees, issued since, say, 1960, is well into the millions.

[Sufi Marmot]

26. So what are the odds at 100,000; 500,000; 1 million?

n/t

[Webster Green]

3. Some spooky-ass X-files shit going on.

Creepy mo-fo's trying to cover up some scary stuff that they're getting ready to unleash on us.

:tinfoilhat: :scared: :nuke:

[seabeyond]

5. i'd be talking loud and fast if i were a scientist

and i knew something. this is wierd stuff. jsut another thing to file to wonder what is up

[Donkeyboy75]

6. I don't think anything out of the ordinary is going on here.

The guy most likely killed himself. Anyone with a chem background knows that mixing KCN and acid releases cyanide gas...a quick death. What's a twentysomething at a biotech firm going to know about gov't work?

The military and government do almost all of their sensitive work in house. They have a HUGE budget. They wouldn't be going to Ciphergen to get their dirty work done. I think more and more people are just paying attention due to the heightened attention paid to bioterrorism lately. I'm willing to have an open debate on this with anyone.

[prolesunited]

12. What about the rest of them?

I know what you're saying. When you are looking for something or connections, your mind is more predisposed to find them, but I really don't think it is out of the realm of possibilities that something strange is happening.

Think about all of the other things that they already have done that we would have never imagined.

[Sufi Marmot]

14. So what's the connection between ANY of them?

Nobody has ever come up with any reasonable connection between even two of the deceased scientists: I've never seen anything that suggests that any two of them even worked on similar research. Per publically available evidence, most of them didn't work in the bioweapons/bioterrorism field, and they came from all across the the spectrum of biological research, and from all levels.

I would note that in the last 25 years or so the number of people involved in biological/biomedical research in academia, the corporate, government and private sectors, has grown enormously. Has anyone ever looked to see how many people involved in the computer industry (in any capacity whatsoever: programming, IT, circuit design, project management, etc.) have died unexpectedly in the last 18-24 months?


-SM

[Donkeyboy75]

15. Right. My concern is that people are lumping

all scientists' deaths together, and trying to find a link that may not exist. Look, accidental deaths happen all the time in lab. I myself have been to the hospital twice...once for nitric acid burns, and once for hydrogen cyanide exposure. There are also a lot of scientists in the States...which means that many will die under strange circumstances. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying the board looks silly making what IMO are some pretty far-fetched accusations.

[bobthedrummer]

13. I disagree with your assertation that most "sensitive work" is in house

it's been privatized over the years, especially during the Viet Nam war era-this also conforms to the compartmentation required for secrecy, and let's not forget about the HUGE amount of black and grey budgets that finance elements of "national security".

We've got a war president that employs mercenaries and an administration that has handed out contracts to campaign contributors that are, in fact, private military companies some of which have been awarded DoD weapons contracts based on emerging technologies.

This unfortunate young man's death being reported as possible self-inhalation of poison can easily be seen as part of a sinister pattern of mysterious deaths involving CBW researchers.

Perhaps Jerome Hauer's Office of Public Health Preparedness
http://www.os.dhhs.gov/news/press/2002pres/20020503a.html
could answer what that particular company is doing to make our nation safer.

Jerome Hauer and Tommy Thompson led the promotion of Cipro taking before the anthrax attacks, in fact Jerome Hauer was hired from SAIC by Tommy Thompson on 9-10-2001.

SAIC has certainly handled it's share of sensitive government work too. And they are also a heavy political contributor.
http://www.publicintegrity.org/wow/resources.aspx?act=contrib

That's where most sensitive work has gone imo into mercenaries.

[Donkeyboy75]

16. Your post contains nothing to refute my assertion,

which I stand by. Your first link just shows that they pulled some guy out of academics to head a preparedness department of the government. The second lists contributors to political campaigns. SAIC is a managment consulting company, more or less. They do NO lab work, which means they aren't doing the researching.

You have to look at what these companies are working on. Ciphergen makes DNA/gene chips for lab diagnostics. Nothing to do with the military. The military is working on biosensors to detect biowarfare agents, and they by definition are very different technologies.

I think all of this is tin foil hat stuff. Until I see anything resembling evidence, I'll continue to be very skeptical.

Corrected misspelling on edit.

[Pepperbelly]

23. Not much need for definative discussion because ...

there simply aren't enough facts available to examine the issue. Primarily what we would do is spout off sans data, feelings would be hurt, the more paranoid among us would not be reassured nor those who do not enjoy a good high (and in my view healthy) level of paranoia would feel secure.

Remember the film "Strange Days"?

The question is not whether you're paranoid. The question is whether you're paranoid enough.

Indeed, these are strange days and I would take none of the possibilities off the table.

[Donkeyboy75]

24. Yeah, I agree.

I'm just trying to refute some of the way the little available information has been treated. It's impossible to know anything right now, though.

[ConcernedCanuk]

7. Makes one mindful of "Silkwood" - yup, that put's my radar up also -

.
.
.

The story of Karen Silkwood is a disturbing read.

And it's not "paranoia" if the threat is real

It's real.

We dare not trust our governments.

(sigh)

[cliss]

8. Is there a conspiracy which is targeting scientists

and bioweapons specialists? I must agree with you, Proles, that I have read some pretty disturbing stuff. An unusual number of scientists have died under mysterious circumstances.

However, it's important to look at why someone would be killing scientists and other people 'in the know'. It's presumably to make people keep quiet about classified information. Information that our own, dear government is working on or otherwise knows about.

This would frighten the rest into keeping their mouths shut. That's the end result of all this. If scientists are frightened, then the plot is working. If they're not, then it's nothing but mere circumstance. Tragic, though to be sure.

[havocmom]

28. Is it possible it is some corporate warfare?

Corporations are trying very hard to control governments, why not consider them suspect in also trying to 'control science'? They sure have a lot at stake to protect their own R&D while trying to ruin the other guy's potentially competitive R&D.

In a world all racing to control intellectual property and make $$, I think corporate entities would be among the suspects.

[Name removed]

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