Kerry/Bush "even" in polls now despite weeks of butchery in Iraq because:

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

I have just returned after 2 weeks in England/France. I realize the election is a long way off, but I am discouraged that all the terrible news from Iraq has not resulted in Kerry maintaining or even increasing his post primary lead.

I refuse to give up in any event but I'm at a bit of a loss. Some discussion or enlightenment, please?

[DAGDA56]

1. I voted other...I think most Americans...

...in what has been called flyover country, simply don't know JK as well as they know Monkeyboy...we are a nation slow to accept anything new, but not incapable of accepting it. That, and the people who take the time to talk to pollsters may not be representative of most busy, cell phone owning Americans.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. All the headlines and threads I see are about JK's record. Isn't

it the job of the voters to decide on Bush's record which should represent 70-80% (I think it's more like 90 plus in this election) of the important issues in a reelection campaign?

Is JK's campaign doing a poor job of framing the election about GWB's record, and don't they need to start doing better? I haven't been getting much news except hotel BBC/CNNi recently so I don't get a sense of what Americans are hearing.

[MrBenchley]

3. Most Americans aren't thinking politics...

Wait until September and October...

[rock]

4. The actual answer: bushsucks* is way behind in votes

and the media polls are without value. The media is quite incapable of producing an unbiased and accurrate poll.

[robbedvoter]

13. I agree. Unfortunately, Kerry believes them too and tries to be W

It's disinformation, and it works.

[JHBowden]

5. Bad framing of issues.

Though Dean made his own errors, one thing he did really well was frame the debate. For example, Dean had Kerry boxed for months as a war supporter and was prepared to box Bush as a puppet of special interests.

Not only is Kerry's strategy lacking of initiative, it is too nominalist, too particularist, and too detailed. This leads to a lack of clarity and simplicity which demoralizes much of our base AND makes us look fuzzy and weak to centrist-minded voters.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

10. Perhaps I should have posted this in Campaign 2004, but

yeah, it seems to me the simplest and most effective "themes" for the campaign would be:

1) Are you better off now than you were 4 yrs. ago? (The Ronnie Reagan classic, but it's a classic because in a large sense it IS the prevailing issue of virtually any presidential campaign, and, I think, should be.)

2) Are you happy with the direction that the country is going in? Do you have a sense that we are headed the right way? If not, don't you think it's a time for a change in leadership?

It seems to me that the whole basis of the campaign is Bush's terrible record, most notably in foreign policy and economics, but also in everything from the environment to human rights (Guantanamo), civil liberties, etc., and the fact that as an experienced senator, Kerry represents a credible Democratic alternative, regardless of all the various particulars of his votes.

To me, the focusing on all of Kerry's positions past and present, while important, overlooks this central campaign theme ("trees for the forest"). Simpler is better. I am hoping to hear simpler in SEP-NOV, but I think we should be hearing some of it now.

[saracat]

11. Dean and some

of the other primary opponents gave the GOP too much ammo.This is why a negative primary is such a bad thing.The allegations may not be true but just as we provided Sadaam with WMDS, we gave the GOP the ideas to swing on , and that is most unfortunate and benefits no one.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Manipulation of poll samples and questions.

[billbuckhead]

8. Many of these same polls show Kerry ahead in the electoral college

Bush has added more popularity in Red states without gaining much strength in swing battleground states.

[onehandle]

7. Because it's way too early to worry....

And anyway, when an incumbent is anywhere around even at this point with his opponent, he's the one who has to worry.

You don't hear elected Dems voicing complaints about where Kerry is in the polls. You do hear Repugs who are worried about Bush's lack of coattails.

There's a reason. Kerry is going to win.

[JI7]

9. the negative ads against Kerry

[freetobegay]

12. Bush is at 51%

as the incumbent thats not good! For him at least for us it's great!

[TruthIsAll]

17. Bush is at 48.5%. Bad news for him.

Kerry is further ahead than the polls give him credit for.

Common sense tells you that.

Don't trust: CNN,IBD,ABC,FOX,NBC

Look at: Zogby, Pew, Newsweek, CBS

[physioex]

14. Shrub just spent $50 million....

Randi says for $50million dollars of marketing, you can market crap and people would buy it!! Remeber Bush has a quarter billion is his re-election fund....Kerry doesnt even come close.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

16. Not trying to be contentious, but then why did Dean's 40mil not

buy him any primary wins? Bad ads? Poor use of resources?

[physioex]

23. I was an early Dean supporter...

I know the press was partly to be blamed for his failure. They played his speech a thousand times. Partly his own campaign. But Kerry was smart he kept quiet and made a big comeback. Ill give him credit for that!! Who know maybe he can use the same strategy. He seems to be good at it. For many of the past campaigns, I was wishy washy but for this one SHRUB MUST GOO!!!

[G_j]

15. two words, the media

seems to me they are determined to help Bush win.

[seabeyond]

18. or you can look at "even" another way

kerry isnt spending money, but accumulating it. bush is spending tons. kerry isnt getting press bushco and his people are getting tons. we havent had debates yet. and democrats a couple days before election numbers go up 2, 3% historically. an incumbent running even at this time and such low approval has never won. and bush has 6 more months of f* ups. so to be "even" right now is a good thing.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

20. The other thing I was thinking, is,

when the whole Falluja situation blew up (even though the "blowup" was of our own making), did this result in a "rally around the flag in a crisis" effect for Bush, such as after 9/11 etc., even though we should view the current situation as disastrous... Don't people get tired of getting fooled by this "rally around the president in a crisis" scenario, especially when the crises were created by our government, by choice? When does this "rally around" instinct become disgust and anger? Or are most/half of Americans just Pavlovian dogs who will salivate and vote Republican when the war bell is rung?

I wonder if LBJ got any short term support when Tet occurred?

[seabeyond]

21. hey mayberry, one i left out

i agree with soldiers sieing and fighting and still in it not done with it.........the battle goes on, and i can see though they see bush fumblin just out of a need to back the troops back bush. absolutely

[dawn]

19. Other: the media and polls lie.

[rocktivity]

22. Other: It's a crock.

More specifically, it's a page out of the Bush regime playbook. Maintaining the illusion that the race is a "dead heat" with neither candidate gaining will make it that much easier to for them tip the balance their way, just like they did in 2000.

:headbang:
rocknation

[debannbull]

24. other

The second guessers who voted for John "Mr Most-Electable" Kerry better be right come Nov!

[leesa]

25. The same corporations that are controlling our media are controlling

nearly all of the polling. They MUST maintain the illusion that it is a close race so that the Bush Crime Family can steal the election again.