IMF Says Venezuela’s Economy Will Grow 8.8% in 2004

[TinaTyson]

Does Chavez really stand a chance of surviving with good news like this and quotes like the ones below coming out of his government?

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1257

The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook report for 2004, in which it states that Venezuela’s economy is expected to grow by 8.8% in 2004. However, for 2005 the IMF says the economy will grow by only 1.1%. The growth rate for 2004 is the highest in the western hemisphere, which is largely attributable to the recovery of the economy following declines of 8.9% in 2002 and 9.2% in 2003, due to the effects of the 2002 coup attempt and the 2003 oil industry shut-down.

The 8.8% growth prediction of the IMF is substantially higher than the one the Venezuelan government used for its budgeting, which had predicted a 6.5% growth rate. Currently, however, the Finance Ministry is predicting a growth rate of between 9 and 10% for 2004.

The report explains that the economies of Latin America will generally recover in 2004, following the “deep recession” of 2001-2002. It says that “Despite the improvement in economic conditions, unemployment remains high, and together with wide income inequalities and pervasive poverty, this has contributed to an increase in social tensions in a number of countries.”

With regard to Venezuela, the report says, “the projected rebound in activity is critically dependent on an orderly resolution of the political crisis and a corresponding recovery in consumer and business confidence.” It went on to add that “urgent corrective measures” were needed to ensure fiscal stability

---

Finance minister Tobias Nobrega, however, in a reaction to the report that was sent to Reuters, said that “Venezuela is overcoming its financial difficulties independently of the IMF and it is doing this by applying the opposite of what is recommended by the well-known but limited IMF recipes.” Venezuela is one of the few countries in Latin America that can act independently from the loan conditions of the IMF because it currently does not hold any IMF loans.

[TinaTyson]

1. I think Bush will make something happen there if

Chavez wins the refferendum and it looks like Bush will lose. Or maybe after he(Bush) has already lost, I doubt he will do like Clinton and not create a new mess on the way out.

Or is their oil supply too important with the Iraq situation to even mess with him?

[bemildred]

2. Chavez does not appear to be in any danger at this point,

and he seems to be feeling his wheaties. Of course you
can never be sure, but the golpistas seem to have shot their
wad and Uncle Sugar is much too busy. Meanwhile, as this
story notes, things are getting better rather quickly.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

3. Let me take this opportunity to plug

the documentary The Revolution Will Not Be Televised, an account of the coup against Chavez and the reversal of the coup by people power, all of which was caught by an Irish film crew that happened to be in the presidential palace when the country club Republicans (I mean, golpistas) took over.

ON EDIT: By the way, have you noted how countries that defy the IMF and World Bank have been doing well lately? First Malaysia recovered from the 1997 Asian currency crisis faster than anyone by following a course that conventional wisdom said would "lead to disaster." Now Venezuela is rejecting IMF strictures and growing rapidly.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

[Joanne98]

4. Recovery=do the opposite of what the IMF tells you LOL

Boy they got that figured out. Watch them attack Chavez again for this.

[Aidoneus]

5. the economy grows *faster* when the oil bosses aren't staging a lockout?

WOW.. learn something new every day.