How many votes does Nader take from JK? From W?

[usregimechange]

From what I have seen from when the two way race is compared to when the poll question includes Nader is that it seems to only affect JK's poll number slightly. That Kerry is only loosing 1% or so from Nader being included. Granted 1% in FL would have won the election in 2000 but it could be worse.

[salonghorn70]

1. If The Race Is Very Very Close

Even 1% or less could swing crucial states to Bush. Afterall, Nadar just got 2% in 2000.

[Poiuyt]

2. We'll have to see how many ballots he gets on

I'm guessing he'll get more votes if Kerry has a substantial lead over Bush in October. People will feel more safe in giving Nader a protest vote if they think it won't hurt the chance of removing Bush.

[usregimechange]

3. I considered doing that in 2000 but I live in Missouri nt

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. 0% from W

And I figure about half of Nader's supporters will actually end up voting for Kerry. If Nader drops out, almost all will go to Kerry, the rest to various 3rd party niche candidates.

[usregimechange]

6. Polls don't seem to show that.

When Nader is included Kerry and Bush lose some and Kerry just a tad more.

[ThoughtCriminal]

7. How 3rd party voters poll

and how they end up voting is different. There is a higher tendency to switch.

[Sparkly]

5. More from Kerry than from Bush

and that's all we really need to know about the equation, as I see it.