Democrats to Pull Out of Arkansas and Tennessee

[BabsSong]

Chuck Todd of the Hotline was speaking on CNN yesterday (Hotline is a regular feature on C-Span; follows all the political races; and great source of information from within the campaigns). He was talking about the "bubble states"--those states where the candidates have poured in money in ads and in appearances because they were thought "do-able".

He reported that the Dems are pulling out of Arkansas and Tennessee. That's a polite way of saying that we are cutting our loses and running and declaring those states unwinable.

That hit me like a brick in the gut. It's only the first of June and we are already into "cutting and running" mode. I wanted to scream that we really haven't even launched a campaign yet--why can't they wait a bit. Then I said to myself that maybe it's because we haven't launched a campaign yet that we are already cutting out. Some say not to worry because its waaaay to early (been saying that for months). Well, for Arkansas and TN it's become "too late". I wish someone in the Kerry camp would realize that running for President on the national ticket is far different than running for Senator in a state that is predominently Democratic and "who knows your name".

[myrna minx]

1. Why would the Democrats "cut and run" from

the states of Bill Clinton and Al Gore? It is way too early for that kind of decision. I'm not familiar with Chuck Todd. Could this just be more "talking points"? That is like bu$h cutting out of Texas. Has President Clinton or Veep Gore campaigned in those states yet? This seems a rather strange strategy, if it is accurate. I'm not buying it.

[BabsSong]

6. This guy is very riliable and is not any Republican cheerleader

He reports from all the various campaigns and was given the info from the Democrats (not a guess) that they are leaving and putting their resources elsewhere. There was mention of it's significance in that they are the home states of Clinton and Gore. But, that's the decision that the big boys are making as they try to narrow down to where they want to aim the money. Also said that their are certain hopes for Virginia but most of the talk is that it's 'do-able' in 2008; also same sort of feeling about N. Carolina in '08.

[kentuck]

2. I hate to hear those types of stories...

I don't think the Democrats should withdraw from any state. It sends the wrong message, imo. I realize they want to spend their money wisely, but surely a small token ad would not hurt the budget too much?

[demnan]

3. Home states of Clinton and Gore?

Too bad they probably don't have the money. It doesn't look like the 11th District in VA is running anyone against the powerful Republican Representative, Tom Davis, either.

[Dob Bole]

29. Home state of President Carter not winnable this year, either...

Thanks to "Go to Hell" Zell...

[Donny247]

4. Cut and run????

You can hardly call it a "cut and run" when the Kerry campaign has expanded into three additional states: Virginia, Colorado, and Louisiana. Those three have more electoral votes, and are more realistic for Democrats in November.

This is simply a calculated re-calibration of the electoral map. It's called STRATEGY!

[Pobeka]

5. Sounds like bullshit to me.

I can almost hear the next line:

"Democratics are so weak they can't even win the home states of Clinton and Gore".

Seems like a talking point strategy to make the Dems appear weak, nothing more than that.

[BabsSong]

8. Ii'' repeat again....this guy doesn't do "talking points" but runs a very

reliable information network on the various campaigns. If anything he's always leaned very much to the Dems and eager to share any good news coming from their camps. Obviously you can't blather a talking point when the butts are firmly still in place in those states--that can be determined in the snap of a finger. They ARE pulling out. It just isn't adding up there so they have to use their resources elsewhere. Sadly, it looks like even Clark didn't make a dent in Arkansas. Who knows, once we do launch a campaign (if ever) things will look up there and they will try again. I didn't know about TN but I did have hopes for Arkansas because of Clark.

[MallRat]

7. WTF? Weren't we tied in AR?

Last I saw, we were tied in Arkansas and down by only 6 or 7 in Tennessee. What in the friggity fuck? :wtf:

Next thing you know, we'll be conceding Ohio to concentrate on Florida. Worked pretty well for Gore in 2000, y'know.

:mad:

-MR

[BabsSong]

10. Mallrat--Guess the thing that went "gulp" in me is that I hope

a few months down the road we are not concentrating everything we have on some neck and neck battle in just one state because we have "given up on the others". Every time we yield ground, it encourages them and makes us look weak. I think I would have left a few bodies around in those states, so to speak, and made it look like we had not pulled up stakes. I'm watching to see if Bush has given up on any bubble states.

[JI7]

9. Kerry hasn't spent money in Tennessee so how can he pull out ?

and it makes no sense anyways to pull out before the convention since that's when people start paying attention . and kerry is starting to reach out into virginia, louisiana, and colorado. i find this hard to believe. or maybe by democrats they meant someone besides kerry campaign.

[BabsSong]

12. JI7----that's a possibility in that he didn't (if I remember correctly)

use the name Kerry but referred to it as "Democrats" are pulling out. It would seem odd, though, that they would pull out if Kerry looked like he had a chance. There was mention of the money and ads spent and the number of times both Bush and Kerry visited these states, so I assume they were talking the presidential campaign!!

[JI7]

15. i can't find any info on it

i think we need some more info. this kind of thing would make news since we would be able to read reports of them stopping ads in arkansas.

[BabsSong]

19. JI7--given our stupid media barely covers Kerry and the Dems I

didn't think I would have any luck ever hearing much reported. I was wondering if anyone who lives in either of those states has any concrete info on it. Anyone in contact with their campaign headquarters, etc. that could find out what they are doing and why??? I would assume the leading papers in the states would somewhere cover it. I don't know if it just happened or is going to happen soon. If anybody has any info, please share.

[loyalsister]

28. Definitely

party money targeted behind candidates vs. the Kerry campaign. They may be a bit confused by what "pulling out" means in October.

[papau]

11. "pulling out" means no special TV/radio ads - but nothing else, right?

Battleground States get the money, and until the polls show those states are battleground (3 or 4 point spread) why do extra work and spend extra money?

[JI7]

13. but he hasn't spent any money for special tv/radio adsi n tennessee

that's why calling it "pull out" makes no sense. he has spent specifically for arkansas though. but why would they add tennessee when he hasn't spend in state yet.

[BabsSong]

14. Papau--it was pointed out that they are spending money, ads and

personal appearances in these two states (compared Bush and Kerry to date). They were "bubble" rather than "battleground" states--in other words, places that Bush had to defend and looked like they could go Dem. Apparently, the numbers must not have been shaping up to elevate them to "battleground" status.

[papau]

18. Thanks for the clarification - :-)

:-)

[On the Road]

16. Re-allocating Media Budget Doesn't Mean Cutting and Running

You win by landing the big states. OH, PA, and FL will win the election, not AR and TN.

In 2002, Gore narrowed his focus in the last couple of weeks to the key swing states. He even wisely avoided TN and went after the states with more electoral votes. He won all the close ones.

Bush, on the other hand, wasted time in CA and NJ and neglected the big states.

Kerry is a smart strategist. He is not a defeatist. I would like to see a little more evidence before giving any credence at all to Mr. Todd's spin.

[bushisanidiot]

17. I was in AR last weekend and they seemed pretty Democrat friendly to me.

They're damned proud of being the home of the 42nd president of the United States. 'Course, I was in Eureka Springs which is quite a liberal little town. :) :) :)

[kentuck]

20. I've never heard Chuck Todd portray a Democrat in a positive light.

Sorry.

[BabsSong]

23. kentuck--I think you are thinking of the guy from Roll Call----he always

is trying to pump republicans and crap on Dems. The only good news I ever get from the front lines in the various Congressional campaigns, etc. is from Todd and his Hotline segment on C-Span.

[Monte Carlo]

21. I think that you are jumping to conclusions.

Any good journalist gets at least two sources for their stories. This only has one, and it seems shaky.

I don't think anyone's writing off Arkansas or Tennessee just yet. A lot can happen in 5 months.

[John_H]

22. On edit:: Utter BS. Called a fiend who works for Kerry.

They're getting ready to open an office in Arkansas as we speak.

[BabsSong]

24. I'm sure we are establishing a campaign office in every state obviously

But, they are not going to spend the money on these two states anymore because they don't see them shaping up. There have been a number of visits already by Kerry and Bush to each one. Apparently that is to stop and ad money won't be spent.

[JI7]

27. kerry has visited arkansas only once

and i don't believe he has been to tennessee since the primary elections there. he certainly hasn't been there as much as he has to ohio and florida.

[BeachBuckeye]

25. You are correct.

Just a few minutes ago I spoke to one of my sources at the DNC and they said this report is "absolutely horseshit." Nuff said!

[JI7]

26. thanks

for the info. good to hear. and just when president clinton's book is about to come out. hopefully it helps kerry in arkansas and elsewhere. i'm hoping clinton's book will remind people of better times of hopeful times.

[Beatrix]

30. Smart move

Leaving states 5 months before the election. Before the real campaign has even started. Glad to see everything is being run by geniuses.

Fortunately we only lose 17 electoral votes.