Thinking outloud about the Chalabi affair:

[keithyboy]

This story seems to be another lie conjured up by the Bush regime.

It if is true:

Who was the "drunk" who told Chalabi the information about the US breaking the Iranian com code?
Was the person really drunk?
Why is the US seemingly publicizing this story (you don't usually want the enemy to know when you have breach in security)?
From what are they trying to divert our attention?
What OTHER information did Chalabi give to Iran, if any?

Sorry, but none of this story makes sense to me. There is something else going on here but I don't know what.

[Beetwasher]

1. My Analysis:

Chalabi/Iran decided it was time for this story to break and so they sent that communication knowing it would be intercepted and knowing the US would now know that Iran was aware the code was broken. They had alreay gotten what they needed from the scenario and it now served their purposes to let the US know they knew the code was broken. There could be several reasons/motivations for this.

Also, we have no way of really knowing at this point how long Iran knew the US had broken the code or for how long the US had the code to begin with. Iran could have known from the moment the US thought they broke the code (IOW, from day one) The story claims Chalabi told the Baghdad station chief six weeks ago, but for all we know, this was a set up by Iranian intel and they decided to "break" this six weeks ago but actually had the info much longer. I suspect this is the actual case. I'd be willing to bet that Iranian intel had this info since before the war and had been using it VERY effectively the whole time. A LOT of stuff might make more sense in light of this info.

Honestly, I wouldn't be totally sure that Chalabi actually got the information the way it's being presented in the news account. It's possible it's true that it was drunkenly blabbed to him, but it's equally possible, IMO, that that account is dis-info.

The sad and frightening truth of the matter is that the idiots in charge allowed an Iranian agent practically unfettered access to some incredibly delicate US secrets, resources and personnel. Who knows what he got his hands on and HOW he managed it. He may have been given everything by traitors, he may have been given some by traitors and managed to steal others. He may have bribed or coerced info from people. Some of those people/assets might STILL be under his influence through blackmail etc. The damage Chalabi did is probably not completely knowable. He probably has stuff even Bushco. would be surprised he got his hands on. Who knows? Only Chalabi knows and I'm sure he's keeping his secrets well guarded.

Regarding the publicity the story is getting, I would say this is more payback from the CIA. Some of the first people to get the story/info regarding the codes would have been the CIA, since it's more than likely it was their signals groups that intercepted the message, and given the current climate, they would not hesitate for a second going directly to the press with it, bypassing the admin. Turn about is fair play. After all, the admin. has been bypassing the CIA (and dumping their failures in the CIA's lap anyway) in order to do their dirty work w/ Chalabi et al. This very well may have been news to the CIA that Iraq knew they had the codes since the admin. had been keeping them out of the loop and I'm sure they were none too happy about yet ANOTHER incredible intel failure that they will probably be blamed for by the admin.

More in these threads:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg& ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&a ...

[Warpy]

2. The military and CIA did an end run around the Bush junta

when they raided Chalabi's offices. The statement was that there was "compelling evidence of longstanding espionage" on Chalabi's part and that the info was being ignored at the highest levels.

THAT is the important story, not that Chalabi was a security liability.

[MajorFlaw]

3. One thing which is clear to me is that if Chalabi

were an American citizen, he'd be executed for treason. How the mighty have fallen, indeed.