Stats on where the jobs were created.

[napi21]

I tried to copy the table, but the format transfer looked really bad.

Goods producing 72,000
Construction 37,000
Manufacturing 32,000
Services 176,000
Retail 19,000
Professional/business 64,000
Edu. & health services 44,000
Hospitality 40,000
Government -27,000

Net 248,000

Avg. hr. earnings $15.64
Avg. weekly earn. $428.63


Here's the link if you want to see all the actual comps.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

BTW, anybody know what the difference is between Mfg. and goods producing?

[DaveSZ]

1. That seems pretty solid

I don't see Kerry winning with those kinds of numbers every month.

(Being honest here)

[leyton]

3. Agreed.

These are monthly numbers, though?

Methinks national security is now our better point, although Kerry still has phenomenal jobs numbers compared to Bush, I think.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

11. Oh, please....are you swallowing these "job numbers" without asking...

...ANY questions in regards to the types of jobs being created and where?

[leyton]

25. No.

Geez. Let's try to be a little more condescending, shall we?

Regardless of whether or not they're true, they're the numbers that the Bush administration will trumpet from the rooftops as part of their campaign message. Ultimately, they look good for Bush. That was my point.

[papau]

27. Avg. hr. earnings/ Avg. weekly earn are not for the "new jobs"

They are for the stats as a whole at best.

Indeed the by industry breakout of jobs is sort of correct only - the birth/death jobs do not appear to be broken by industry - so they must be a pro-rata allocation.

And since the birth/death jobs are such a large part of the job increase - the whole thing may be invalid.

On the other hand they may be a projection of the DOL Household sample - that game that Greenspan even says is inaccurate - but at least the by industry growth numbers would have some sample data to back them.

on edit: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm is the more accurate establishment survey - so the only game is the seasonal adjustments - I was very suspious of these when they changed but after reviewing the seasonal effects they appear to be fair - and the new birth death numbers that added 618000 jobs to the increase in employment over the last 3 months - and appear to be bull.

I'd trust the numbers to indicate that these areas are growing - but I would not trust the values to tell me how fast those areas of work are growing. Still, knowing that job type A has more demand for new hires than job type B is useful.

[Trajan]

4. You dont see Kerry Winning ? ..

Why not ? ... Your vision extends to LOSING because of some bogus numbers presented by the party in power ? ...

I dont see Kerry winning: because of the weakness in his supporters ...

[Robbien]

5. If they were real jobs, you would be right

however most of the jobs are estimates based on what they think the jobs would be based on population increases.

Smoke and mirrors my friend.

[sandnsea]

10. People have eyes

I just drove down Hwy 101 on the Oregon coast, 1/2 the traffic we had in 2000. I don't need numbers to tell me the economy is in the toilet. And time and again I'll say it, I lived through the 80's. I didn't need numbers to tell me the economy was in the toilet then either, no matter how much they were jiggling the numbers or playing around on Wall St.

What would be so tragic about Kerry winning anyway? You really don't seem to be very supportive of that idea at all.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. Even if the economy improves, Bush's war will lose it for him

really

[louis c]

22. No Repugs Please

How can Kerry win? how absurd. The real question is "how can Kerry lose." 40,000 more Americans are without work this month than last. Do you know that you can have more than one job? If I lose a full-time job, and pick up two part-time jobs at less total income, do you think I am better off because I now have two jobs instead of one. WAKE UP. 8,000,000 people are still without jobs, and at this rate, Bush will still finish his term at a net jobs loss, even with the obvious reduction in the quality of the jobs created. Don't be a dope, people who work for a living know better, because they're living in this bogus economy.

[Robbien]

2. I believe those are those hamburger jobs

When the flak arose about Bush trying to put Mickey D's in the manufacturing sector, they then switched to a new category.

But I could be wrong.

[Trajan]

6. From Robbien a few days ago ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=547329

What are they Smoking at the Labor Dept? (Jobs numbers are made up)


I'm not going to waste a lot of my precious space on this, but the bottom line is that most of the 288,000 jobs that the Labor Department says were created last month may not really exist.

They could be figments of statisticians' optimism.

Anyone who plodded through my column last Thursday knows I predicted that job growth in April would be better than the 160,000 to 170,000 jobs that the "pros" were anticipating.

But I also said, quite emphatically I hope, that the stronger growth would be an illusion - the result of the Labor Department's computers making happy predictions about seasonal job creation that could neither be verified nor justified.

I'll explain one aspect. Back in the March employment report, the government added 153,000 positions to its revised total of 337,000 new jobs because it thought (but couldn't prove) loads of new companies were being created in this economy.

http://www.nypost.com/business/23936.htm

I think its time to put the McConnell/Chou pipe down ....

[warrior1]

7. got give this a few days

it always revises downward.

[cosmicdot]

8. why won't they just tell who is hiring for what where?

categories are fine for stats at DOL ... but ...

*/Cheny ... just have these hiring forces come forward and identify themselves ... we have unemployed folks out here

[Media_Lies_Daily]

9. How many of those 281,000 goods producing/manufacturing....

...and services jobs were created as part of outsourcing programs? How many of those jobs are permanent/full-time, as opposed to temporary/contractual/part-time?

How many people actually believe that the NeoCon Junta downsized any portion of government employees?

[napi21]

16. Gov't cuts were probably firefighters and cops!

I hope I'm wrong and just being sarcastic, but I do keep hearing there's no $$ to pay for these services.

[iconoclastic cat]

12. People, people---weren't GHWBush's numbers even higher than this near

the election that he lost? And wouldn't we need to have 350,000+ per month just to break even?

[whistle]

13. The numbers are bogus....

...the BLS admits it is using a projection model (not real statistics) to fudge the data with something called "New Business Creation". There was a DU thread last evening that addressed that (sorry I don't have it), but the bottom line is that because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is told that the economy is in recovery, the assume that there time line data coming out a a recession is no longer applicable, so they are making up 93.75% of the new jobs created by supposedly new businesses created by the Bush policies in this recovery. If you believe that, Bush has another middle east war he'd like to sell you on. Sorry, but I was taught that statistics are based on actual numbers, not made-up ones. So I really think the American public once again is being sold a bill of goods that ain't really there. Let's try 15,500 real jobs created! Not so rosy is it?

Counting chickens and jobs that aren't really there. Just like Enron was claiming revenues and profits that didn't really exist. GOP Bushit!

[Trajan]

18. Bully for You ....

I am appalled by the number of Bush Cheerleaders in DU ....

CMON ! ...

DEMAND PROOF ! ...

BE SKEPTICAL ! ...

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
-- Henry Mencken

[napi21]

21. I don't know anything about a new program model, but my gut

tells me these numbers aren't true. Yesterday our local paper announced that Viacom was laying off a lot of employees, today they reported that Maytag was consolidating some of it's subsidiaries and laying off 500+ employees, and of all the people I know personally who have been unemployed, none have found a job.

That appears to be the case across the country. Maybe that's the reason noone can understand why this economy is "doing so well" by the American people have no confidence in it.

Some say that if you tell people something again and again, they will eventually believe it. Well, maybe that "Some" are wrong!

[mckara]

15. Good Numbers But...

You need to include that we are also running a $500 billion deficit. We have growth sure, but at a HUGE cost to the general health of the economy! Don't tell me this is good news for Bush. He is destroying our economy and Kerry will benefit politically once people understand there is no free lunch!

[newyawker99]

33. Hi mckara!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[displacedtexan]

17. That's less than $20,000 per year.

Sad!

[Robbien]

19. Even sadder when you know that Bill Gates and friends'

wages are averaged into the numbers.

[dsc]

23. no they aren't

Those are new jobs not all jobs. Bill Gates has been employed for several years now.

[papau]

28. Yes they are!!! - the ave wage is over all employees - not new jobs

Or at least I can't find tonight something that says that is the average over new jobs only.

:-)

[EndElectoral]

20. What's the MEDIAN Earnings?

[chairman]

24. a few problems...

First, these numbers may be affected by seasonal variations in employment. For example, construction jobs will rise as summer weather clears job sites.
Second, the average weekly pay for these jobs is unlivable. At the average wage, these figure to <30 hours per week. We may be seeing a large number of seasonal / temp / high schoolers on summer vacation jobs, as has been mentioned. Moreover, the number of jobless Americans remained constant at 8.2 million, if I recall, despite the creation of a quarter million jobs? This is a symptom of trained, even skilled workers also taking second / third jobs to make ends meet.
Simply, this may be a slightly good sign for overall productivity and output, but is powerful evidence that even talented people are hard-pressed in America today.

[newyawker99]

34. Hi chairman!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

26. Don't see any recovery in NW AR

Two established businesses are going out of business. Stores that usually donate to the local youth softball league have turned down sponsorships this year because they just don't have the money-and I'm talking about businesses that have donated every year since I've been working here. My husband was laid off from his mechanic's job at a dealership because of lack of work, and can't find another-no work, no one's hiring.

[Gin]

29. "Goods Producing"....could be outsourced jobs from US companies..

since the headquarters are here..they can claim the jobs increase.

[Beaker]

30. what have the help-wanted ads been like where you are?

In chicago, the Sunday Chicago Tribune help-wanted classified ads have always been the place to start for job-seekers. in the go-go 90's, a typical Sunday would have 4 or 5 sections of 20-24 pages each, just of job ads...on 'holiday' weekends, they would usually drop drastically, down to just one section of 18-20 pages.

Since the lil'dictator was couped into office, and since 9/11 specifically i can't recall the job ads ever going beyond a single 24 page section- this past memorial day weekend saw a drop to 18 pages...

i'd be very interested in seeing any hard data to back up the mis-administration's jobs numbers.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

31. Memorial Day Weekend was DEAD down the Cape

and it's usually bumper to bumper traffic. We flew in and out at the usual peak traffic times. And didn't have to wait at a usually crowded restaurant. And every day was beautiful and sunny.

The Cape usually relies on holiday weekends to rake in the revenue. Lots of disappointing numbers. Many can't afford to go away these days...

[caffefwee]

32. People have had enough of Bush

They just want to put these past four horrible years behind them. The numbers do nothing to make up for the nightmare.