Anyone understand job statistics?

[Eric J in MN]

This writer implies the Labor Dept. is speculating about non-existent jobs based on a "birth/death model."

What is a "birth/death model?"

-----------------------------
http://www.nypost.com/business/23936.htm

NY POST:
Back in the March employment report, the government added 153,000 positions to its revised total of 337,000 new jobs because it thought (but couldn't prove) loads of new companies were being created in this economy.

That estimate comes from the Labor Department's "birth/death model." You can look up these numbers on the Department's Web site.

As staggering as the assumption about new companies was in March, the Labor Department got even more brazen in April.

[alcuno]

1. Thursday night on CNBC they were talking about the Dep of Labor.

Said that there was some new component to the job number that would likely make it higher. I thought that they were talking about adding a calculation for future jobs or some such thing. I'm sure it has NOTHING to do with the upcoming presidential election. Yeah.

[specimenfred1984]

2. It's Explained in Excruciating Detailed Doublespeak Here

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

An excerpt from the legaleze of govt. doublespeak:

<< The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process. >>

[seabeyond]

3. telling you in february they didnt put out #'s

first time in fourty years. they said that they didnt think the formula was right and they needed to change it. after that, the numbers have been high every since. and no one goes to that. dont know what it was about, but i remember and was waiting to see what happened to numbers. been yelling about it for three months, just not a good researcher

[lostnfound]

4. kick