The Kerry States, or, Handicapping the Nov. Election

[Stargleamer]

This website, <http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/> allows you to easily see for yourself if you think Kerry is going to win, based on the states you think Kerry will carry (couldn't resist). So if you think Kerry will win in Florida and Ohio, but lose in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, you can easily determine if he'll still come out the winner.

Here is a list of states that Al Gore won in 2000 that the Electoral Vote Calculator seems to think Kerry can win, followed by my comments.

Calif. -- Yes I think Kerry can win this state.
Conn. -- Well, OK.
Delaware -- Can this state come through?
D.C. -- Refutes the conservative allegation that liberals are elitist white people.
Hawaii -- ditto
Illinois -- This state is becoming more responsible.
Iowa -- Can this state come through?
Maine -- Yes, New Englanders reject Bush
Maryland -- This state seems reliable.
Massachusetts -- a given
Minnesota -- wait a minute, can this state come through if it chose Coleman over Skip?
New Jersey -- Another state that seems reliable.
New Mexico -- If the polls show Bush just 1 pt. ahead, Kerry should win (polls underestimate/neglect Native American vote)
New York -- Hilary's popular, Kerry should come through
Oregon -- Nader might hurt Kerry here.
Penn. -- Can this state come through?
Rhode Island -- New Englanders reject Bush
Vermont -- especially in Bernie Sanders' home state
Washington -- Nader might hurt Kerry here
Wisconsin -- Can this state come through?

If Kerry can win all these above states + Ohio, he wins the election.

Feel free to address my concerns about the above states. I have the most concern about New Mexico, Wisconsin and Ohio.

[trotsky]

1. Kerry will take MN.

Coleman was a fluke. The GOP was able to politically exploit the Wellstone memorial by claiming the Democrats had politically exploited it. At the time, I heard conversations between totally apolitical people who were reciting the right-wing talking points they had heard from every media source. You bet your ass it influenced people in the voting booth.

By the way, "Skip" is the nickname for Hubert H. Humphey's son, Jr., who served as MN Attorney General for years and tried unsuccessfully for the governorship in 1998. "Fritz" is Mondale's nickname.

[NMDemDist2]

2. fyi, AZ is within the margin of error

we have 10 EV :bounce:

[Comicstripper]

3. Electoral Simulator

There's a much better site, based on, ya know, FACTS.
Well, polling actually, but it's better than guessing....
www.electoral-vote.com

[NMDemDist2]

4. excellent site there comic n/t

[Yupster]

7. Good site Comic

my quick conclusion is that Kerry needs to win three of the following four states to win.

Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio.

Very doable, though not a sure thing.

[cjbuchanan]

5. How about Florida?

The last polling I saw was neck and neck (I think Kerry was up by 2). I really think Kerry can win there.

[Padraig18]

6. "Illinois -- This state is becoming more responsible." WTF?

We're the most reliable blue state between the Appalachians and the Rockies! :wtf: do you mean we're 'becoming more responsible'?

[trotsky]

8. I'll have to take issue with that.

Only Minnesota hasn't voted Repuke since 1972, and we're also between the Appalachians and the Rockies. :)