I'm NOT a Nader supporter, okay? But...

[DrBB]

This poll has Kerry ahead by six two ways: both with Nader in and with Nader out. Which implies that Nader-in draws from both sides equally.

Now all along I've thought that Nader's argument that he would draw from Bush's support as much as from Kerry's has struck me as errant nonsense. No one on the right is going to choose Nader. They might send him money, in order to bolster his position as a spoiler against Kerry, but they wouldn't actually vote for the barstid, was my reasoning.

But here's a thought I hadn't had before: what about all those disaffected R's who do want to vote, but don't like Bush? Is it possible they would lean more towards going to the polls and pulling the lever for Nader, as a protest, rather than staying home? I'd just as soon they stayed home. But it looks to me like there's starting to be at least a little data supporting the idea that, abhoring the idea of voting for a Dem, they might enter a FU vote for Nader.

Not sure that adds up to an argument for Nader to be in the race, though. Just a thought. Flame away...

[JHBowden]

1. R's would be voting against our Senate and House candidates

along with others running for office.

It is best they keep their asses home.

It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where a Nader run is justified, besides him winning the Democratic primary like a man.

[mzmolly]

2. Many other polls show differently?

http://dontvoteralph.org/pollwatch.htm
"Ralph Nader asserts at essentially every campaign appearance that this time around, he’ll help defeat George Bush. It’s easy to see why he’s adopted this remarkable position: he has little choice. The fury at Bush among Nader’s natural constituency requires him to assume such a stand. After all, what progressive would support helping re-elect George Bush?

But this raises a vital question: is Nader’s claim true?

We answered this question by completing a comprehensive study of every poll that measures Bush/Kerry head-to-head and Bush/Kerry/Nader in a three-way race. Through May 14, there have been 37 such polls taken since Nader declared his 2004 candidacy. Using the authoritative, non-partisan website www.PollingReport.com, plus all other polls found through a search at Google1 , the results are conclusive.

Of the 37 polls reviewed, 32 show Nader hurting Kerry, 4 show no effect, and 1 shows Nader hurting Bush (and that by a scant 1%)."