What are your thoughts on the Senate race outcomes right now?

[coloradodem2005]

Will the Pukes find someone to replace Ryan in Illinois? If so, will Obama still win?

Will the Dems take back the seat in Colorado whoever the candiate is?

Will we take the seat back in Oklahoma? Which seats will we hold onto that are up for election this year?

What are your thoughts.

[seabeyond]

1. i dont know anything on senate,............but

i am so disappointed in colorado. i had so much more respect for colorado over the years, thought they were so much more progressive than what i am seeing now and after listening to a couple representatives adn the coors dude, i shudder to think of a visit.

you appear to be colorado, and what is coors dude doing running for senate? talking family values

did you see the boob twin girls commercial. did you ever see the one in winter with just one of them. soft friggin porn putting on sunday afternoon football games for my children to watch.

i know so many here dont have issue with kids absorbing this. i do. and sent out a bunch of emails. was ready to go to office before they pulled the commercial

ahhhhh, just had to get that out. hopin the dude losses his ass. i think whoever is running against him should play the commercial and then ask the guy if this is his perception of family values on a sunday afternoon

or screw the family for money

[coloradodem2005]

4. I know.

Mr. $$$ running for senate. On another note, I never though that Colorado was very progressive for the last 20 years or so. We have gone Republican in recent presidential elections except 1992. We do have dem governors in our history but my area has always been Republican. Other than Denver and Boulder, it is not very progressive.

[Kanary]

6. you're right about that!

"i think whoever is running against him should play
the commercial and then ask the guy if this is his perception of family values on a sunday afternoon"
There are sooooo many commercials confronting the RW that DEMs could be running, but they'd rather be milquetoasts, and stay "safe".

Colorado was invaded by the RW, and went nutz.

If Salazar wins, from what I understand of him, it could be a replay of Campbell anyway. So, no jubilation there.

No, I'm not filled with joy about my state.

Kanary

[liberalpragmatist]

2. Predictions

As of now:

Democratic Gains

Illinois: Barack Obama (D)
Alaska: Tony Knowles (D)
Colorado: Ken Salazar (D)
Oklahoma: Brad Carson (D)

Dem Gains: +4

Democratic holds

Louisiana: Chris John (D)
North Carolina: Erskine Bowles (D)
South Carolina: Inez Tenenbaum (D)
South Dakota: Tom Daschle (D)

Republican Gains

Florida: Mel Martinez (R)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R)

Republican Holds
Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R)
Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter (R)
Missouri: Kit Bond (R)

Repub Gains: +2

End Result: Dems (+4, -2), Repubs (+2, -4) = Dems 51, Repubs 49

*This is all VERY subject to change and if Kerry wins decisively, we could conceivably win many more or even ALL the races listed here. But I'm just trying to be somewhat realistic. The circumstances will change though.

[coloradodem2005]

5. I thought the Dems were doing well in Florida.

Like they had a good chance.


I don't know how far behind Spector Hoeffel is. Though Spector has been around a while so who knows.

[liberalpragmatist]

7. Oh, it should be close

And esp. if it's Betty Castor as the candidate, I think she has a good shot. But realistically, we're not likely to keep 4 out of the 5 senate seats from the South. 3 is far more likely. Mel Martinez is just an all-around strong candidate for Florida Republicans and he'll do well among Cubans and among non-Cuban Hispanics, methinks. So I think Castor may lose, although narrowly.

HOWEVER, Florida remains an important swing state. If it goes to Kerry, then his coattails could carry Castor to victory.

[LTR]

10. Don't forget Feingold

He is not going to lose to a car salesman.

He is well regarded here in Wisconsin. And rightly so. A great senator. And one who can claim that he voted against the Patriot Act.

[andino]

3. Oklahoma

It looks like the ReThugs are beating themselves up quite a bit here. There are allegations of unethical land deals with millions of dollars floating around about one rethug and the other isn't doing to great either.

My hopes is that they beat the hell out of each other enough to hurt them in the general election. Then again, it really all depends on the turnout and what not but this is a rethug stronghold.

[Ediacara]

8. Hmm let's see

Washington - Murray wins

Oregon - Wyden wins

California - Boxer wins

Nevada - Reid wins

Alaska - Knowles wins Dems +1

Hawai'i - Inouye wins

Idaho - Crapo wins (dems don't even have a candidate)

Utah - Bennet wins

Arizona - McCain wins

Colorado - Salazar wins Dems +1

North Dakota - Dorgan wins (will be close)

South Dakota - Daschle wins

Kansas - Brownback wins

Oklahoma - Carson wins Dems +1 (due to GOP internal implosion)

Iowa - Grassley wins (dems should target him though)

Missouri - Bond wins

Arkansas - Lincoln wins

Louisiana - John wins

Wisconson - Feingold wins

Illinois - Obama wins Dems +1

Indiana - Bayh wins

Ohio - Voinovich wins

Kentucky - Bunning wins

Pennsylvania - Hoeffel wins Dems +1 (out on a big limb I know....)

Maryland - Mikulski wins

New York - Schumer wins

Connecticut - Dodd wins

Vermont - Leahy wins

New Hampshire - Gregg wins (dems should target him though)

Alabama - Shelby wins

Georgia - Isakson wins GOP +1

Florida - Castor wins (will be close)

South Carolina - Tanenbaum wins (will be close)

North Carolina - Bowles wins (will be close)

So in total, it looks as though the dems could pick up five seats, but may lose just as many.... We need to keep the heat in the south, as well as in those states we look like we'll pick up (AK, IL, OK etc) as well as NH, PA, and IA, which IMHO are doable.

[Yupster]

9. Your scenario not unlikely

Usually there are a lot of close races, and they pretty much all go one way or the other. It's more rare that the close races split.

It looks like there will be a lot f close races this year.

In the south, Dems are defending N Carolina, S Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana. They could easily win three or lose three.

[T Town Jake]

11. The problem with the Oklahoma scenario is...

...that they've put an "outlaw gay marriage" initiative on the ballot for November, which is expected to swell the ranks of the Fundy-Baptist vote on election day. Most of those folks will probably take the time while they're there to vote the straight GOP ticket. It'll probably be close, but counting Carson as an automatic Democrat pickup in the Senate at this point is a dicey prediction at best.