Whither Iran?

[theHandpuppet]

I have to say if I were Iran I'd be none to pleased to find myself in America's strategic vise -- Afghanistan to the east and Iraq to the west, both loaded with U.S. troops and bases whose Thief-in-Chief is determined to redraw the map of the entire M.E. Little wonder Iran is proceeding with its nuclear development program. They'd have to be insane to disarm -- after all, we've learned from the Iraqi experience that disarming is simply an invitation to PNAC invasion.

This topic (Iran) doesn't get much play in the media, but I personally think this is potentially a much more explosive situation than that of Korea. I'm curious what other DUers make of this because I have a number of really unpleasant scenarios running through my brain.

[varun]

1. Dubya's appeasement

of N. Korea and Pakistan (both nuclear powers) will make any state in middle east desperate to get nuclear technology. Everyone knows that only nuclear power will keep Dubya's hands away from them now.

[jeff30997]

2. Yes Iran is cornered...

Can you talk about those unpleasant scenarios,please? I want to know your point of view on this.

[theHandpuppet]

5. One scenario in particular comes to mind

With Iraqi airspace now firmly in "friendly" American hands, I can envision an airstrike of Iranian nuclear facilities by the Israeli A.F. Thus any perceived threat of nuclear power in Arab hands is removed without *direct* involvement of the U.S., yet Iran would find themselves too hemmed in by U.S.-controlled nations to retaliate.

How would Iranian-friendly Shias respond to such an attack? Good guess. They have gambled much on gaining a good slice of the pie in what is little more than a puppet government with the American military in charge. The new Iraqi security forces will be trained "out of the country" (how convenient), leaving the "sovereign" Iraqi govt without so much as an effective militia in the interim, an interim which will, I suspect, last just as long as it takes to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities.

That's as far as my speculation goes, but I think we're a LONG way from seeing this game of PNAC chess played out to its conclusion.

[yodermon]

3. Iran has played us like a fiddle.

Iran has just won the Iran/Iraq war, 24 years after its beginning. And we won it for them. It should be humiliating in the extreme that Iranian intelligence duped us into removing their secular arch enemy (Saddam), so that they may assert their thoecratic influence via the Shia majority in Iraq.

Remember the "United Islamic Republic" (Iraq+Iran) from Tom Clancy's books (foget which one.. Executive Orders maybe)? That's where the region is headed. If the Iraqi people believe that Iran & Iran-sponsored clerics can provide the social stability that the new Iraqi "goverment" cannot.... look out.

As for Iran-Afghanistan.. not sure how that will play out.

[theboss]

4. Iran is going to be very very different within five years

Demographics is destiny. The majority of Iran's population was not alive in 1979. It has no memory of the Shah and little memory of Khomeni.

Something big is going to happen there very soon and the best thing we can do is let it sort itself out. But I would not want to be one of the ones in power when it does happen.

Iran is important in the long term. Iranians have traditionally been much closer to the West than the west of the Arab world. The last 25 years, I think, are going to look like a case of national insanity - much like Germany in the 30s and 40s.

[seabeyond]

6. listening to an iranian 20 year old. smart

she has a blog and was asked about iran nuclear stuff. and she reflected and sure she doesnt like the idea of it, but..........seeing iraq invaded of sovereign leader and country taken over by u.s. and threat to them made by u.s. and bush and his stupidity adn arrogance.

dont they have the right to arm themselves against said super power that dominates the world

wouldnt it behove iran to get nuclear capability

i told husband last nite, are we a nationally seriously telling a country to stand down and not protect themselves cause we are the boss, lord and master..............

[wmccarver]

7. Two things to note

Iran is Persian and should not be so readily lumped into "the rest of the Arab world." Secondly, there is an Iraqi Sunni army in Iran, approximately 15000 strong, armed (by the Iranians)and ready to return to Iraq. Mostly comprised of refugees from Saddam's Bashra pogroms after the 1st gulf war, it may soon become an issue in post-Bush/Bremmer Iraq.

Also, we should note that the Iranian military isn't toothless by any degree. In fact, it possesses a mighty air force, one I should think more than capable of engaging Iraeli/Coalition of the Willing air forces.

Ok, a few more things to note. The British are responsible for all the international borders in the Middle East. They divided the Kurds between the Turks and Iraqis, and created Kuwait to squeeze Iraqi access to the Persian Gulf. The legimate throne to (non-Saudi) Arabia sit in Jordan, and the ilegitimate throne of the Shah of Iran was installed by the Americans after WWII by none other than the covert (read insurgent) meddlings of the son of FDR.

Those who wish to make this entire warring effort a religious affair miss the whole point of western intrusion into a region of the world mores civilized and settled than any other with the possible exception of China and Japan. If allowed to decide, how many indigenous Americans would vote to allow Europeans to stay? It's about family.

[theHandpuppet]

8. Yes, you make good points...

.. with which many I'm in total agreement. My inclusion of Iran with the rest of the Arab world was not intended as an aspersion upon either Persians or Arabs, but a description of how the West views the Middle East. How many people here in the U.S. could even locate Iraq, Syria, Iran et al on a world map? How many still think Saddam was behind 9-11? How many even know which ME nations have secular govt's, military dictatorships, theocracies, etc? The Bushreich has effectively played upon our own ignorance to lump all ME nations as one great Muslim threat to "Western civilization", never mind that Iraq is the cradle of civilization whose people graced us with law and writing, great cities and sophisitcated technologies while our European forebears were still painting themselves blue and taking a crap in the corner of a cave.

Conversely, the British played upon age-old schisms and rivalries among various peoples in the region, effectively throw a roadblock before any natural evolution of a united "Arab states". The lack of any unified front has left the individual countries completely vulnerable to being picked off, one by one, by Western corporate interests.

Iran may have an impressive military but it will be hopelessly outmatched once the U.S. has firmly established scores of military bases in, among others, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan. The PNAC python has Iran in its grip and its only a matter of time before they begin to strangle the last roadblock in their path to ME domination. The Bushistas see this as their God-appointed mission and I don't think anything or anyone can divert them from their goal. The thought of unleashing WWIII is only a bonus which could surely bring on "the rapture" they so crave.

My only question at this point is whether they will "take out" Iran's nuclear facilities before or after the November elections.

[wmccarver]

9. Always, it's a pleasure

to meet someone able to convey their sentiments with self-confidence and style. All you ask, culminating with relieving oneself in the corner of a cave, I too would ask.

I sense from your aplomb that you see a rather certain end to soon be occurring, namely a Bushistas victory in the Middle East and elsewhere. I will only ask you this: Do you expect the Chinese to remain non-committal forever? Isn't there likely to come a time when the Chinese will seize upon Bushistas vulnerability (both military and political) and provoke Taiwan? Or, even more perversely, overwhelm Nepal?

Minimally, the Chinese are not going to blithely allow a coalition of the willing to nudge against its only borders free of western influence. (Though a tiny border, Afghanistan does border China.) More importantly, though, those "Stans" north of Afghanistan are becoming geopolitical targets. That Russia and China have long histories in these regions, the introduction of western influence, only now emerging, is creating a far more sinister playing field than Iran.

While you speak to short-term affairs, it's the long-term affair that bears our knowing. WWIII will, in my opinion, register only when the Chinese feel vulnerable. This potential looms as you and I speak.

Hey, all of this dries up and blows away if oil becomes obsolete.

[newyawker99]

10. Hi wmccarver!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: