Democrats, Kerry get nice Rasmussen bounce today

[RoadRunner]

Not much change in pres polling (46-46 today vs 47-45 Bush - Kerry yesterday), but good news all the same:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

<snip>

Democrats are now much more optimistic about their prospects of winning in November. In fact, among all voters, 46% believe the Bush-Cheney team will be re-elected while 44% believe Kerry and Edwards will emerge victorious. Those figures represent a dramatic improvement from a month ago. Scott Rasmussen will be discussing this and other topics on Fox and Friends Friday morning at 8:20 a.m. Eastern.

While Republicans are presenting Kerry and Edwards as the most liberal ticket ever, a majority of Americans say that John Edwards is a political moderate. Edwards is also viewed more favorably than the man he hopes to replace, Dick Cheney.

<snip>

Our latest Electoral College update shows Kerry leading Bush at the moment 237 Electoral Votes to 203. However, 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House and the key to victory will be found in the toss-up states with 98 Electoral Votes. These figures will be updated as new state data is released.

[lancdem]

1. That optimism about winning is very important

As for Kerry not getting a bounce, that's not really a surprise. The polls of likely voters (Rasmussen and Zogby) tend to show much smaller fluctuations than other polls.

[TruthIsAll]

2. Its a 3-day moving average poll. You will see a Kerry bounce tommorrow

Probably will have Kerry ahead 47-45 or 48-44

[papau]

3. If Kerry gets bounce, Rasmussen will not be on Fox that night! :-)

But those that say no bounce like NYT's Ron Fournier - Bush holds a slight lead over Kerry in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll, but the Democratic ticket pulls even with Edwards on it.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Edwards-Impact.html

And http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Kerry 46%
Other 4%
Not Sure 4%
Thursday July 08, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows the candidates are tied once again. President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry each attract 46% of the vote. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

We have modified the Tracking Poll to reflect the fact that it is now a Kerry-Edwards ticket running against a Bush-Cheney ticket. Before Edwards was selected, the choice offered was simply Bush vs. Kerry. Two-thirds of the interviews for today's report were completed with the new approach.

Democrats are now much more optimistic about their prospects of winning in November. In fact, among all voters, 46% believe the Bush-Cheney team will be re-elected while 44% believe Kerry and Edwards will emerge victorious. Those figures represent a dramatic improvement from a month ago. Scott Rasmussen will be discussing this and other topics on Fox and Friends Friday morning at 8:20 a.m. Eastern.


Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 46 46
July 7 47 45
July 6 47 46
July 5 No Polling July 4th Weekend
July 4
July 3
July 2 46 46
July 1 45 46
June 30 45 46
June 29 45 45
June 28 45 45
June 27 46 46
June 26 46 46


should have no problem getting face time on Fox!

:-)

[TruthIsAll]

4. If its 46-46, then Kerry is ahead 52-48

The challenger gets 60-80% of the undecided votes.

[59millionmorons]

5. Rasmussen

Rasmussen final poll in 2000 had Bush winning 49-40.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2000/11/7/113223.shtml