Is it just me, or does the job market still suck?

[POed_Ex_Repub]

Where's the booming economy.... I'm sorry, steady, but not a boom, growth that's been touted by the media?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. It still sucks!

[Warpy]

2. There are no real jobs

Their rosy statistics are generated by a formula that checks deaths vs. births and calculates the number of new companies that should be forming with the growth in the GDP.

There are no jobs, there are no new companies, and the growth in the GDP is due to the war and its costs.

There is no recovery for anyone who works for a living. The economy is great for the top 0.5%.

Get it yet?

[jayavarman]

17. I agree, things do seem tough but its not ALL bad

Here are some stats

Avg hourly earnings for last 10 yrs:
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref3

That one looks pretty good, but . . . .

This one shows the "bush effect" pretty well:
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3
as does this one:
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1

Personally, I have noticed things being that different in the past 4-6 years. In fact me & most of my friends are making about double what we all did 5 years ago . . .

But then again we are a bunch of big-city yuppies- We could easily be singin' the blues if we had made different choices.

Saddest thing is that outsourcing is not gonna end & I don't think there's a damn thing that any politician can do about it . . . Or can they?

[Andromeda]

35. Good for you.

However, not everybody is as lucky as you are. Overall, jobs don't pay as much and benefits have either been cut or workers have to pay a larger share of the medical coverage for their dependents. Some employers have stopped paying health insurance benefits because the insurance companies have raised costs so much they can no longer afford the premiums and stay in business.

A lot of employers aren't paying retirement benefits or if they do it's a 401(k) which is good only as long as the company is profitable. A lot of people have lost their shirts with 401(k)s and are faced with retiring on a shoe string.

[jayavarman]

41. point well taken, but

you seem confused about different types of retirement plans. You state "401(k) which is good only as long as the company is profitable. "


You may be confusing a defined benefit plan (traditional pension) with a defined contribution plan (such as a 401k, 403b, etc . . . )

My company could go bust tomorrow & it would not effect my 401k one bit. . . My pension however, along with whatever vesting I had built up over the years, would be gone.

[davekriss]

18. Just births...

The CES Birth/Death model. Added by GWB's team in April 2003. Read the fine text: For unexplained reasons it excludes the "death" estimate and just adds make believe jobs to the "birth" side of the ledger. Now why would that be? (5.6% my ass!!!)

When will the bonehead NASCAR luvin' lemmings clicking "Republican" each November realize that the economy has recovered, just not for them (nor us). Productivity soars 4% to 5% yet wages creep along at 0.1% Purpose achieved, I say. Bush has hammered down the working man's share of the pie while his constituency -- the Lexi Hummer class -- see dividends and bonuses rise as their marginal tax rates fall. The future looks bright for the oligarchs while the rest of us get Latin Americanized.

[tritsofme]

26. Deaths are calculated in the model

Its not called the "Net Birth/Death Model" for the hell of it.

Also the number that is reported is not just automaticaly added or subtracted to the seasonally adjusted payroll figure that is released each month.

And as to the 5.6 my ass comment, the Net Birth/Death model is part of the CES, and the unemployment rate is calculated through Household Survey, in other words, they are unrelated.

[davekriss]

44. Harumph!

Picky, picky, picky! :)

I read this as meaning that, while they use the empirical-based series of business deaths to impute births in the upswing, they don't do the opposite (and subtract "deaths" during a downswing): "To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS is implementing an estimation procedure with two components: the first component uses business deaths to impute employment for business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample." (http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm )

However, the charts show a subtraction of 321 million jobs in January 2004, so surely deaths are figured in too. I stand corrected. On the issue of unemployment rate, that was understood but it was easier to say (as I say here again), "5.6% my ass!".

The net births are added to the overall number of individuals employed (the total employment numbers), so when Bush* announces that (say) 249,000 jobs were added last month but we then find out that 230,000 jobs were added to empirical survey results, then one wonders about the reliability of the CES net birth/death estimate, added in 2003 by the first President since Herbert Hoover to show a net loss of jobs by the end of his one term. We've always been at war with Eastasia, you know; and choco rations have been increased by 2% today! ;)

Of course, this maladministration would never mislead nor lie to further its political agenda, now would it?

[tritsofme]

47. But say 230,000 added to over a million in non-seasonally adjusted terms

Is not as signifigant.

The reliability of the model however, has yet to be determined, as most people don't really understand the specifics.

[physioex]

3. It totally sucks.....

The manufacturing jobs have been long now. Now it's jobs like call centers and high technology that are getting outsourced.. :mad:

[Must_B_Free]

4. Very down

Plus, noone is buying consumer goods, look at all the desparation sales going on.

[annagull]

5. We will all work for Walmart in Bushler's America

That's who's hiring, btw.

[SunDrop23]

6. It still sucks

How can you replace, for example, a $50,000 per year job with a $20,000 per year job and call it progress?

[Robbien]

7. For a booming economy, 9 million jobs should have been added by now

the 1 million or so jobs added does not constitute a boom. We are just limping along.

[Zen]

8. Hey the job market is fantastic! (if you live in China or India)

The pro-business fools are just letting our jobs get siphoned off to Asia. NO oversight WHATSOEVER - it's gonna get worse the next cycle (if this friggin upturn ever materializes!!)

[givemebackmycountry]

9. ME

I'm hanging by a freakin' thread.
Almost 50.
Worked 17 years for the same company.
No degree.
Middle management.
72k plus benefits.
And I'm scared shitless.
Because I understand, I lose my job and I am fuc*ed.
BIG TIME.
Who wants a freaking telecom manager who's done 17 years in one spot?
Even though I have some skills, it's not enough in todays market.
So, I keep moving and I keep hoping.
That the thousands of share of stock I bought at $60 is going to make it back from $19.00

The job market?
It still sucks and it's going to suck for awhile.

[Ruffhowse]

15. I was middle management, $65k a year, telecom company, went belly up,...

...and I was SOL. I'm 47 and having no luck finding ANYTHING. I'm either overqualified, or the job I'm applying for has 300 to 400 applicants and I'm lost in the shuffle. I'd be happy to find something that paid just $13 an hour, that's how desperate I am. This economy SUCKS, don't believe the God Damn media and especially God Damn Bush.

[jayavarman]

20. Any creative ways you could use your skills?

I know some folks in similar situations who have been able to do some consulting & have ended up better off than where they were.

With so many skills built up over your career are there any entrepreneurial avenues open to you?

My spouse, for example got laid off around thanksgiving from a 50k/yr job . . . ended up going into real estate in Feb & has already sold enough houses to make her salary back in the 1st 6mos of the year.

She didn't have any real estate experience, but was able to put together an interest she had (real estate) with a skill she developed at her old job (sales & client mgmt.) to do something she's really happy with.

If you can put your proven skills to use in the service of something you are passionate about you may find that the layoff was the best thing that ever happened to you :)

That & when you work on your own noone is hassling you with stupid bullshit about where the cheese got moved to or 'fish philosophies'!!

Best of luck, you will end up kicking some ass . . .

[leftofthedial]

22. Yo! Since the bushgang seized power

Me too.

almost 50, college degree, 20 years of experience in my field.

1. Lost my senior managment job in the aftermath of the dot com bubble bursting, 9-11 and the Bush recession

2. Got a new job three months later making about 75% as much money in middle management. Got laid off less than a year later in the midst of a "fire-sale" merger engineered by VCs.

3. Got a new job, making about 33% of my #2 salary. Grossly underemployed.

4. Got a second job about seven months later, making about 10% of my old salary.

5. Got a third job making about 5% of my old salary.

None of my three jobs is at all secure. Any one of them could end tomorrow. The two higher paying ones are interrelated, so if one goes, they'll both go. So, I'm working three jobs (one full time, two part time), plus trying to get my own business started (second attempt at that), paying for my own medical insurance, all for about half of what I used to make at a job I was VERY good at.

Even with three jobs, I'm incredibly busy (very low quality of life), but still way underemployed. I've nearly run out of things to sell to keep the house.

There are no jobs here like the one I had. That industry is gone. If anything, the market is getting worse. Due to family illnesses and other obligations, I can't relocate.

The economy seems okay if you make your money off of other people's money, or if you work in a defense-related industry. But it is a mirage. The middle class has taken a serious body blow under the bushgang.

[Lisa0825]

10. It's very complicated and will take a long time to improve

even IF the economy is improving for businesses. Because it sucked so bad for so long, many, MANY people gave up on finding jobs that were right for them (as far as education and/or experience level) and took whatever they could get.

It was basically a dropping of the ladder. As an employment counselor, I had customers who'd had jobs paying from $50K to 100K taking jobs for $30K IF they could get them. So, those used to making $30K took whatever they could get in the $20-25K range, and those in that range took hourly retail jobs, waiting tables, whatever. The ladder dropped and everyone from upper management down took what they could get.

Now, more and more crappy jobs are being created while good jobs are either outsourced, or done away with through "increased productivity" or mergers, or whatever. Burger flipping gets renamed as manufacturing. Sales jobs are increasingly commission only with no benefits.

All of these factors are little pieces of the jobs picture that Bush's rosy stats ignore.

Now, as far as the economic figures go, a stat I heard from a local jewelry store says a lot... "People who would have bought only one carat are buying three or four. The economy is great!" Yeah, but what about people more concerned about buying carrots? they're still getting the shaft.

[Robbien]

11. What makes me mad is that the media will not discuss this issue

Bush&Co keep pounding out their Booming message but the media should be calling them on their bullshit. It makes people feel that something is wrong with them because they are not making it in this booming economy.

The people should be told they are not alone, that there are many people on the edge or who have fallen off the edge already.

Booming economy my butt!

[juajen]

29. Lou Dobbs calls them on it practically every night

Everyone should write CNN and thank them for Lou Dobbs. He pounds the table on outsourcing and middle class woes every night. Really, don't miss this show. This is one remarkable conservative.

[Andromeda]

34. Lou Dobbs is one of those rare

conservatives who speaks the truth. :)

[Ruffhowse]

12. Been out of work for a LONG time here, no prospects in site.

[antigone382]

13. Yep.

I've gone from a desk job to food service, took a $6.50 an hour pay cut, and that was only after months of searching for any job at all. It's a good thing I'm still young or I'd be *really* Cheney'd.

[flutter by]

14. It's not just you...

...it sucks. I've been out of work since last September. The unemployment ran out 3 weeks ago. The only offers I got were at 60% of what I was making. I turned them down. Now I'm just hoping that I can get just one more offer at that sorry rate, because there is NOTHING out there, and I'm to the point now where I have to take what I can get.

:grr:

[Spangle]

16. You no longer count

when they count the un-employed. Once your off the un-employment rolls, you no longer a problem.

But there are so many people just like you, no longer qualify and counted, but yet... still job less. So long as they don't count you, then the numbers look better.

With so many people in your shoes, and the un-employment rate so high, YES Isay the job market s*cks.

[JDPriestly]

19. I'd like to hear from older workers who can't find work.

I'm interested in age discrimination issues. Older workers are the first to lose their jobs or be replaced by younger workers and the last to be fired. Age discrimination is a rampant in a bad job market. The problem is that if a worker is forced out of the labor market 55 and 70 years old, he or she probably is out for good. This market is forcing workers to go on Social Security sooner. That is going to have a very bad effect on the economy as a whole. I would love to hear more from older DUers who are afraid of losing their jobs, have lost their jobs, etc.

[mhr]

32. 47 - Unemployed For Four Years - 2,000 Resumes Out The Door

Not one nibble in a long time.

Qualifications:
BSEE
MBA
Commercial Pilot
Honorably Discharged Naval Officer

[flutter by]

23. Right, that's why

I'd like to see some REAL unemployment figures. They don't publish them but I am sure as hell they know the count. Rat-bastards.

[tritsofme]

28. All unemployment figures are published

and they can be found on this website:
http://bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

[redqueen]

45. Table A-12 is better... while it's still there

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

See U-6 (I think it is), which shows the REAL unemployment number.

Better check it while it lasts... they used to have a chart showing unemployment rates over the years... that went bye bye after it backed up the claim that bush's job record was the worst since Hoover.

[tritsofme]

46. That link is a historical look the at A-12 tables

you can look back 10 years IIRC, at U1-U6.

And I would never classify U6 as the "real unemployment number" it has never been touted as the official number, the official number has always been U3.

[tritsofme]

27. Incorrect

Receiving unemployment benefits has no bearing as to whether or not you are considered to be unemployed.

The unemployment rate is calculated through the Household Survey.

[tech3149]

21. Still sux

I quit working 2 yrs ago for personal and ethical reasons. I keep checking for work but am not actively persuing jobs. What I see is less than 50% of the job listing that I would have seen 5 yrs ago. The jobs that are out there are either service/entry level jobs or contract work. I've scaled back my lifestyle to accomodate it and am old enough to know how to survive depression era economics. If we can't change the current environment, the best thing we can do is learn to be self sustaining outside the structure of society.

[gulliver]

24. LOL!

Isn't it great the way Bush is telling us how we aren't supposed to want a booming economy? If we had one, Bush would be crowing about it. Since we don't, the only thing he can find to say is that we currently have "steady growth" -- unlike that bad old booming economy under Clinton. Oh, and we're pessimists if we don't like what Bush is dishing out.

To answer your question... Personally, I would take the 90's under Clinton over the last four years under Bush. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

[OnionPatch]

25. SUCKS!!!

I keep my eyes on the job ads regularly and have for years. Since Bush has come into office the job market is so dried up it's pathetic! They can rate the economy however they like and call it what they want but that doesn't make me feel secure. I'll feel secure and call the economy improved when I know if I lose my job tomorrow I can get another, equally good one fairly easily and quickly. That is not the case right now, for sure.

[mhr]

30. See The Dallas Federal Reserve Chart Below And Note How Hard

Dallas and other Texas cities have been hit.

Note that Dallas, TX has yet to return to levels of employment seen since the beginning of 2000.

This is hardly stellar performance for an economy that is supposedly hot per the claims of Republicans.

As a Dallas resident, I can say that jobs here are slim pickings.



The chart can be found here online.

http://www.dallasfed.org/data/hotstats/archive/txempl0406.html

[EndElectoral]

31. Worst I've ever seen in 40 years!!! So much for the pursuit of happiness!

It's about holding on. I lost a 100K plus job and now barely make 25K. Probably due to age.

The quality of jobs just isn't out there. I've not seen a graph showing the amount of last job versus new job coming off the unemployment rolls. Do they do anything like that? I guess if you come off the rolls with no job, that counts as a zero.

[Andromeda]

33. It's not your imagination, POed,

The growth is mostly media hype.

[MissAnnThrope]

36. It Still Sucks

The jobs created that are being touted by the media are low paying summer jobs for kids. You know, lifeguard at the beach or pool for the season, boardwalk jobs at the beach, resort town jobs, resort town waiter/waitress positions, etc. The jobs will be gone in September.

I'm 44, skilled and if I didn't have sciatica, I'd take a $6.00 an hour job over at the local Shop-Rite at this point. I'm either overqualified for the jobs I apply for, as I score too well on company tests, or I'm under-qualified, as I don't have a 4 year degree. I can't even get a secretarial job. I'm told I'm too smart and I'd be bored.

I'm to the point where I'm ready to lift a pic of some hot babe off a porn site and set myself up as a phone sex operator at Keen.com.

[CaTeacher]

37. just trying to help.....

I feel very bad for those who cannot find work. I feel slightly insulated from some of this--there is a great need in my profession. I am a teacher (which is NOT an easy job), but at least around here, there are plenty of jobs available.

If you have a college degree, you could go to the district personnel office and apply to do substitute teaching--I know many people who stay afloat doing this.

There really is always a need for people with knowledge and if you have a regular position, the benefits are very good. I moonlight at a Learning Center (tutoring children) another 16 hours per week. I know it is not as glamorous or well paying as some careers, but it can provide a nice steady income. And there are jobs available.

[MissAnnThrope]

48. I'm not sure I have enough credits

as finances made me stop going to school. But thanks for the idea. I would sub if I could.

[Robbien]

38. And surprisingly this election is all about cultural issues

Religion, race, sex.

Notice that no one has economics on the table. That is because both sides have essentially agreed with the economic policy of Nafta and global economics.

[Veggie Meathead]

39. I am not an economist but when I see that tax cuts are put in place

to benefit the wealthy and these wealthy people have the opportunity to invest their money in China or India where the profit margins are likely to be higher, why would there be an upturn in demand for labor in this country?The corporations.ike GE, are already heavily invested in India or China, and their latest quarterly results show that they are making enormous profits without adding to their job base in this country.I think the marginalization of even our educated workforce has started and likely to get worse.

This reminds me of the fear that experienced workers face in many corporations when layoffs begin.The guys in their 40's and 50' s
dreaded pink slip fridays.We as a country have become the overpriced workforce for the global corporations.All of us are facing pink slip fridays.

[Robbien]

40. You no longer have to be an economist to understand

that there is no way globalization is going to help the American Worker.

The GOP and the New Democrats both say globalization will create new jobs, sometime in the future. They never say how and they have not shown even one job being created, all the while hundreds of thousands of jobs are gone overseas and executive pay increases 47% each year.

[dumpster_baby]

49. yep. remember back in the 90s when they were still able to sell that crap?

about globalization being good for America. They are still able to hold onto the good connotation associated with "free trade", but its day is coming too.

The good thing about this swing to the right, this swing towards social darwinistic corporate capitalism, is that all nations swing on a political pendulum. Once the masses catch onto the globalization/freetrade/neoliberal scam, man, we are headed for social democracy territory. And I will be loving every fricking second of it! I sure hope I am still around when that pendulum swings.....cuz I wanna see those of these neoliberal boosters like David Brooks go down HARD!

[phylny]

42. If friends and relatives are any indication

then nothing has changed for the better. My cousin is out of work and has been for three years. My cousin's husband, out of work for two. A former neighbor, underemployed after being out of work for a year. All three are looking for management jobs, all three are in their early forties.

We just had to relocate for my husband's job. It wasn't a move that any of us wanted to make, yet all we could think of was, "At least you still have a job, at least it's a job...."

[Skittles]

43. it sucks big green donkey dicks

oh wait - let's make that elephant dicks.

[adriennel]

50. Not you. still sucks.

my sister got laid off and is still looking, my cousin just accepted a part-time job and was happy to find that. I dread having to find a new job next year.

[Protected]

51. I've been trying to find a decent job for months

I have no experience but I do have a BS degree in computer science and I am willing to relocate to virtually anywhere on the east coast at my expense. But I haven't had any luck yet. There are plenty of jobs created by Uncle Sam (jobs which require security clearance) and contract jobs for 3-6 months worth of work (which come with zero benefits), but I don't see many gainful employment opportunities available.

My job seems to have been shipped over to India before I even got it.