Edwards Doesn't Make NC Competitive (Bush/Cheney 56 Kerry/Edwards 41)

[tritsofme]

Any indication that Edwards is helping Kerry in the relatively vote-rich state of North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes?

Over the weekend, we conducted a special Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll in North Carolina. Among likely voters, the Bush-Cheney ticket beats the Kerry-Edwards ticket by a 56% to 41% margin -- roughly the margin by which Bush won the state in 2000. Gallup hasn't polled specifically in North Carolina before this, but the size of the Bush-Cheney lead certainly doesn't suggest that the addition of Edwards to the Kerry ticket has propelled the Tar Heel State into the ranks of contestable battleground states -- at least so far.

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12355

[Media_Lies_Daily]

1. Consider the source.

[AP]

2. If they haven't done this poll before, how do they know there's no bounce?

It could have narrowed the gap by half, for all they know.

Furthermore, if they had done the poll before, we could compare it to other NC polls. If they had a 21pt gap when others had a 10 pt gap, then we could get a read on what a 15pt gap meant.

[tritsofme]

3. That was my title

I think I'll change it to better reflect its content.

[AP]

5. Again, if he just closed the gap by half...

...your title would be "Edwards doesnt' make NC competitive yet."

It would be great to see some more numbers for context.

[tritsofme]

6. I haven't found the internals for the poll yet

just this little blurb in an article.

[AP]

7. They probably want the headline to sink in before they provide the details

which subvert what the headline implies.

[tritsofme]

8. Found it

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm

[King of New Orleans]

10. Looks like a crack addict did that poll

Why the huge discrepancy between Registered and Likely voters?

[King of New Orleans]

13. And it's based on a turnout of 50%

I just did a quick check and the turnout for the last two Pres election in NC were 58.9% and 58.8%, why did they pull 50% out of their butt?

[Lex]

4. Hahaha!

.
I love this part of the report:

"Gallup hasn't polled specifically in North Carolina before this, but . . .

But what the hell, we'll throw something together.

There are some pollsters who have been polling the state for years, specifically Elon polling and Mason-Dixon (see below) polling.

------------------
Mason-Dixon Poll: Bush Leads Kerry In N.C; Edwards On Ticket Makes It Even

POSTED: 3:24 pm EDT May 18, 2004

Republican incumbent George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry in North Carolina, but according to a WRAL/Mason-Dixon Poll, if Kerry chooses Sen. John Edwards as his running-mate, the race in the state currently becomes a dead-heat.

http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html

[ShaneGR]

9. A couple things about this.....

First off, it's just one poll. I'd like to see more than just 1 that says this.

Second off, this poll is a "Likely Voter" poll meaning they only interview those who usually vote in every election, and ignore new voter registration in the major city centers.

I can tell you one thing, lets see Bush draw a 20K crowd in NC. See below picture from last weekend in Raleigh.

[CaTeacher]

11. It's still early

at this point the polls don't mean a lot--they are up and then down. Yes, I like it when we are up--but either way--the polls just don't mean a lot until after both the conventions are over.

Especially important is seeing how the debates effect the polls--perception of the people is a biggie--we have many miles to go! Edwards is going to be a fantastic debater. Look for him to wipe the floor with Kerry!!

I bet after their debate NC (and some other swing states) are firmly in our column.

[ShaneGR]

12. Uh oh, Freudian slip....

CNTRL+F Replace Kerry with Cheney

[Gore1FL]

14. It doesn't matter

The strategy of getting edwards has kess to do with making inroads in the South and more to do with getting voters in other swing states. Though forcing the Republicans to dedicate more time in the South, Edwards won't make that huge of an impact in that region.

[NJCher]

15. this is at odds

With an NPR report I heard today. I heard Edwards had made Kerry very competitive in NC and that the state would be up for grabs.


Cher

[fujiyama]

16. Hmmm

Ok, first of all, Gallup rarely even does state polls, and when they do one, they have Kerry/Edwards losing the state by a bigger margin than Gore lost it?

Now, if Kerry/Edwards were trailing Bush by say 10 points, I'd take this poll more seriously, but I just can't see Kerry losing the state by more than the 14 points Gore lost it.

Either way, NC was always a longshot, but there were atleast two or three polls at different points which had Kerry trailing by 5-7 points, and within one or two with Edwards as VP. I'd imagine Kerry had enough internal polls telling him how competetive he was in the state before choosing Edwards. Then again, Edwards wasn't chosen to deliver that state in particular -- the key is making Kerry more competetive in MO and AR, states which Kerry does have a stronger chance of winning.