Election Forecast Model: I just removed CNN, AP, FOX!

[TruthIsAll]

from the National Poll Averages. They are not to be trusted
and are constant out-LIARS, pulling Kerry's numbers DOWN.

TIA ELECTION FORECAST MODEL			

ELECTORAL VOTE FORECAST SIMULATION SUMMARY			
STATE POLLS			
Kerry	52.91%	333 EV
Bush	47.09%	205 EV
Kerry wins	100	of 100 trial runs!	

NATIONAL POLLS			
      Current Projected 	
Kerry	49.57% 53.87% < THIS IS THE NUMBER AFFECTED
Bush	44.29% 46.13%	
			
Undec/other alloc to Kerry:70.0%
Note: FOX, CNN/Gallup, AP polls are not included		

Avg. Bush Rating 	48.0%	
		
State polling data link:                              		
 http://www.electoral-vote.com/                         		
		
National polling data link:                           		
http://www.pollingreport.com    		
		
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS		
Total Votes (millions)                         		
Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)                            		
Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)                             		
		


NATIONAL POLLING TREND						
	Actual Polling Data	Projected		
	Kerry	Bush 	Spread	Kerry	Bush 	Spread
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-8.33	47.43	52.57	-5.13
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	47.50	44.75	2.75	52.93	47.08	5.85
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74

[DoYouEverWonder]

1. I smell a landslide

that's why Bu$hCo is trying to figure out how to cancel the election. They know they can't win.

[TruthIsAll]

2. Kerry is approaching landslide numbers. He needs another 1%

added to his current projected numbers to get past the 8% spread threshold, which is a landslide.

He's projected to get 53.87% in the 10 national poll average vs. Bush.

He has a 52.91% projection based on the latest state polls (weighted by voting population).

He'll be way over the 8% threshold within two weeks at the Dem Convention.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Article on why undecided voters likely to vote for Kerry

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1999558

[catmandu57]

4. I have more faith and trust in your numbers TIA

I've been smelling burnt toast for months.

[ramblin_dave]

5. So how much does CNN, AP and FOX skew

the results? How out-lying are they? As the others go lower on average for Bush, do these three go higher to lessen the impact on Bush?

[TruthIsAll]

6. Want proof of CNN/Gallup, FOX and AP bias? Lookj right here.

Just compare their polling numbers against these 10 polls.

That's why I took these three Bush whores out of my National
Poll Election Forecast Model. 

But we all knew they prop up Bush, didn't we? This just
confirms it.

Watch these muthas. Watch them close.

10-POLL AVERAGE
IBD,ABC, NWK, ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME				
	Current Polling	Projected 		
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.5	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	47.50	44.75	2.75	52.93	47.08	5.85
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74
						
AVG	47.0	45.5		52.1	47.9	


FOX, AP,CNN	 (BUSH WHORES)			
	Current Polling	Projected 		
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	38.7	51.3	-12.7	45.7	54.3	-8.7
Feb	45.5	46.5	-1.0	51.1	48.9	2.2
Mar	46.3	44.3	2.0	52.9	47.1	5.7
Apr	45.3	44.0	1.3	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	44.0	44.0	0.0	52.4	47.6	4.8
June	45.0	47.0	-2.0	50.6	49.4	1.2
July	47.0	47.0	0.0	51.2	48.8	2.4
						
AVG	44.5	46.3		50.9	49.1