From GOP polling firm-undecided voters likely to break for kerry Bigtime

[59millionmorons]

Undecided Voters Likely to Break For Kerry

Last week, Fabrizio McLaughlin and Associates, a GOP polling firm, released a strategy memo based on their recent Battleground State Survey that reveals undecided voters "are currently poised to break away from President Bush and to John Kerry."

Among the reasons:
They are more than twice as likely to see things headed down the wrong track as compared to voters overall.
They give President Bush a net negative job approval rating.
A solid majority sees the Country as being worse off than they were 4 years ago.
They are significantly more pessimistic about the current state of the nation’s economy.
They are significantly more likely to favor the federal government doing more as opposed to doing less.
The conclusion: "Clearly, if these undecided voters were leaning any harder against the door of the Kerry camp, they would crash right through it."

http://politicalwire.com/

[Dying Eagle]

1. Do a little dance...

Make a little Love....

Get down tonight!!!

Get down tonight!!

Sorry that post made me so happy I broke out into dance :bounce:

[shoelace414]

2. this gives me hope

They are significantly more likely to favor the federal government doing more as opposed to doing less.

perhaps we'll stop getting tax freezes abnd tax cuts. maybe people are starting to figure out you need money to spend

[KurtNYC]

3. Victory is inevitable

I think we need to start believing that victory is inevitable. I do whatever I can to contribute to a climate where people feel that Bush is essentially a lame duck waiting to be ousted. This will not even be close. It is time for Bush-supporting elected officials to step back from him and try (in vain) to save their own butts. Bush's "coat tails" are going to be like poison this time around.

[iconoclastic cat]

17. Inevitable? Hardly!

This is going to evolve (devolve?) into bloody trench warfare. Chimpy is going to go down fighting. Fascists are never more dangerous and reactionary as when they feel like they are losing their grip on power.

Keep in mind, though, that negativity will not help either. Be positive, but be ready.

[KurtNYC]

20. I'm going to take that as agreement

because you said, "Chimpy is going to go down" and "negativity will not help"

My 2 points exactly.

[iconoclastic cat]

24. Yes, I do agree. My point, though, is that his demise is not a given.

We have a long way to go. Think Henry V at Agincourt.

[Old and In the Way]

4. Yet national polling trends seem to keep this contest close...why?

[MallRat]

7. Because the undecideds haven't broken YET.

And "yet" is the operative word.

-MR

[bobbieinok]

19. to what extent are reported polls 'fixed' so it looks close???

some reasons for making election look close

...add 'excitement'; get more people to watch; get $$$$$$$ from campaign ads

...if 'we' think the election is close, it will be easier to steal the election again

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. Anyone read the attached memo?

Their solution: go even MORE negative against John Kerry! They never cease to amaze me!

[MallRat]

10. Bush has already devoted 70% of his ads to blasting Kerry.

It's unprecedented for an incumbent President to go THAT negative. So they think even MORE is better?

:crazy:

To swing voters, Bush is (finally) looking "unpresidential." That's an intangible thing that's hard to correct once the impression is set.


-MR

[Flubadubya]

28. "MORE" (negativity) is all they've got...

When you haven't accomplished a single positive thing during your entire term as pRez, how the hell do you present anything BUT negativity? There's no there there. Hah!

[vi5]

6. The lackluster polls simply indicate lack of enthusiasm...

There are plenty of people not entirely sold on Kerry or even the concept of voting for a democrat in general. They want to maintain the illussion (even to themselves) that they are independent and aren't yet fully decided. But barring any kind of major attack or last minute sneakiness on the part of bush, most of these people will definitely break for Kerry, if at the last minute.

[Beetwasher]

8. The Undecideds Are The MODERATES

and the only one courting the moderates is Kerry. Bush is too busy trying to shore up his fundy base by discriminating against gays, getting rid of the separation of church and state, slandering the NAACP, clear cutting our national forests etc. The moderates don't like that sort of thing...Bush is fucked because at this point in the game if you're still trying to shore up your base, you can't court moderates and the moderates are the swing voters that will decide the election. In a fair election, it should be landslide, fair being the operative word, because we all know the chimp is going to try to steal it by hook or crook and the media will aid and abett him by making it appear close right up to election day...

[LuminousX]

11. Bush's Overt Bigotry is Our Biggest Asset

[geek tragedy]

23. This is why I thought that they should have pushed the FMA to a vote

These voters, even if they don't favor gay marriage, are sick sick sick and tired of hearing about it. The Republican hyperbole makes them seem unserious.

[yellowcanine]

25. Bush is still in primary campaign mode - unprecedented for an unchallenged

incumbent - and an indication of weakness. Solidifying the base is supposed to occur during the primary campaign. A big advantage an unchallenged incumbent is supposed to have is that there is no need to solidify the base - so the incumbent can switch to general election mode and reach out to swing voters. The Bush campaign has made the calculation that if they can fire up the base enough it will boost their turnout enough to carry them to victory. The problem is if their base is not quite large enough and they lose most of the swing voters to Kerry they are cheneyed - particularly since there is such a fired up ABB vote out there already that is not going to go away no matter what happens. Meanwhile Kerry, by wrapping up the nomination early, has been able to start reaching out to swing voters and concequently is probably going to get the lion's share of them. Plus, all other things being equal, most truly undecided voters at this point in the campaign are going to end up in the challenger's camp. And Bush is at present doing nothing to change that except the stupid gay marriage amendment thing which will most likely push the swing voters toward Kerry rather than the other way around.

[lancdem]

30. Yes

I just read a piece on Ruy Teixeira's blog, http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com, where he reported that the Bush strategy is to ignore swing voters and win by getting a big turnout among his base. But that won't work because Dems will turn out in big numbers, too. It's a dumb strategy, if you ask me, but I hope they keep doing it.

[Literate Tar Heel]

31. but it's the only strategy they have

there's no way they were going to win swing voters this year, they're even losing moderate Republicans by the truckload ... that's why they keep talking about the "4 million evangelical Christians who didn't vote in 2000" and pushing the wedge issues so hard lately (FMA, "sex tourism" in Cuba, etc.) and apparently are even getting initiatives to ban gay marriage on state ballots all over (well, primarily battlegrounds) to get the nutjob religious fundie base out in force because that's the only way they can win

[LuminousX]

9. Time to start talking to the moderate GOP

candidates about Bush's negative coattails and maybe they should distance themselves from him.

[Literate Tar Heel]

12. this fits together nicely

with what seems to be the Bush plan to heavily court his extreme right wing base and get a big turnout from them ... he knows (well, Karl Rove knows) that the independents and undecideds in the middle are close to a lost cause

[KansDem]

13. Question: How can a voter be "undecided" and "break away from Bush"...

... at the same time? I don't want to question a partisan polling firm, but I think a different term is needed here...

[louis c]

29. The Fundamentals

If you don't approve of the economy, the war in Iraq, or the defect, and you respond that the country is headed in the wrong direction, but are still not committed to Kerry, the assumption is that all Kerry has to do is breath to get your vote on election day.


(see reply #27)

[ibegurpard]

14. This would explain the huge push for the radical right-wing

they know they are not favored by the "swing voters." And it also explains why they keep pushing these talking points that no one cares about: things like "Hillary is being suppressed by the men in the party" and "Edwards wasn't Kerry's firts choice." These aren't meant to APPEAL to anyone...they are meant to try to continue to sow divisions in the Democratic base. The problem is, they fundamentally MISUNDERSTAND those of us who count ourselves among the "base" and, if these trial balloons are any indication, have no idea how to exploit the very real divisions that exist.

[quaoar]

15. Even more good news

Check out this memo (pdf) from the same GOP firm:

http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-07-14-Approval-Gap.pdf

[dae]

16. Love that conclusion, "leaning any harder... ... they would crash right

through it."

[quaoar]

18. The memo on the "approval gap"

Talks about a gap of about 8 percent between those who say they approve of how Bush does his job and those who plan to vote for him. In other words, there is a large group that approves of the job he is doing but plans to vote for someone else anyway.

The memo says that of these people, 54.7% plan to vote for Kerry, 14% are for Nader and 31.4 percent are undecided.

[TruthIsAll]

26. This confirms what I've been saying: Kerry gets a minimum 70%

of the undecided/nader/other category: Kerry will more than 6%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1996760

Here's the math:

Of the 8%, .547*8= 4.376% plan to vote for Kerry
Of the 8%, .7*.314*8= 1.758% are undecided who will vote for Kerry
The total 6.13% of the 8% goes to Kerry.
Nader gets .14*8= 1.12%
That leaves Bush with .75% = 8% -1.12% -6.13%

BUSH IS TOAST!

[louis c]

27. Absolutley

All the historical trends put the undecideds in the camp of the callenger to a sitting President by at least 2-1, and in most cases 3-1.

This information just confirms this trend that has been unbroken since 1948

The challenger recieves the undecided vote somewhere between the low of just over 60% (McGovern 1972) to the high of almost 80% (Reagan 1980).

In addition, Nader's numbers will surly drop as election day approaches from the 4% he is recieving in most national polls today to less than 1% on election day.

Adding these totals together, I expect a Kerry Landslide. Of course, that's by modern day standards of about 6%.

[Generator]

21. YES!

[blm]

22. That's where the debates come in. Undecideds usually choose then.

They'll compare the two while they are standing man to man. (Or man to wuss in this case)