Rasmussen Has Kerry Ahead 48%-45%.

[louis c]

Thursday July 15, 2994--John Kerry continues to hold a modest lead over Gerge W. Bush in the race for the White House. The latest Rasmussen Reports Tracking Polls Kerry with 48% of the vote while Bush attracts 45%.

Today marks the sixth staight day the Tracking Poll has found the Kerry-Edwards ticket ahead by three points or more. Prior to this, neither candidate had ever held a three point lead for more than three consecutive days.

Kerry now leads in our Electoral College projections 254 to 197.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[lovedems]

1. A landslide is so close I can taste it.

I know it is still early and the republicans have their convention after we do...but I am hopeful!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. same here. nt

[kentuck]

2. My gut tells me that Kerry will better Gore ....

by at least a couple of percentage points. And, as I recall, Gore got over 50%...

[Literate Tar Heel]

3. Gore only won 48.4%

to Bush's 47.9%, but your point is the same ... if Kerry gets over 50%, he'll win going away

[louis c]

6. There will be no bounces this year.....

Bounces are traditionally as a result of filling a knowledge gap in the voters minds.

This election has been so intense for so long, that there is little more that a voter can learn about the candidates.

Perhaps Kerry can fill in a few gaps in some regions of the nation, but as a whole, the electorate will not move beyond the 45% to 55% range. They'll be no huge swings as was seen in 1988 or 1992. I believe movement will be marginal and slight. This is why the solidifying of Kerry's strength is so significant to me. Much more significant than the margin.

I also believe that the undecideds and other categories will break our way, as they have done historically. As a result, Kerry should get 51% of the vote nationally, and win easily.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Few really know Kerry, and he will get a BIG bounce from the convention

If he is at 48% in this poll now, he will easily got to 55% after the convention, and Bush will drop.

[louis c]

8. From your lips

to God's ears. I hope so.

But that still is within my projected range.

There'll be no 18 point leads either way this year.

[mondo joe]

5. And when the Undecideds fall into place, over 50%

Most undecided go to the challenger.

That should put Kerry at 50%.

I don't know if we'll ever see any real landslides again in our sharply divided electorate - but given that, 50% is landslide enough!